NWS Sticking To Their Guns

There comes a time when you have to throw in the towel. Because I am impatient I usually give up too early on storms and as soon as I give up it starts snowing again.

The other side of that is when things were supposed to come together in a certain way and you realize that there is no way those elements can come together anymore because the jet has moved or the front passed too quickly or whatever it is. You cannot hold on to that forecast or Watch or Warning or Advisory.

This seems to have been the case at the NWS with this storm. I have noticed that some of the more experienced meteorologists have been absent in the discussions and advisories with this storm and the lesser experienced ones may have set the bar too high with this storm.

Here was last night at 7:43pm

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
743 PM MST SAT DEC 14 2019

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
SUNDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES…WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH.

Then 6:07 am this morning

NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
607 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2019

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14
INCHES…WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 16 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH.

Then 8:54 am this morning–this is the current Warning.

NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
854 AM MST SUN DEC 15 2019

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT…

* WHAT…SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.  

This seems like a stretch to me but even if it seems like they are crying wolf, I rarely completely dismiss what they say because they spend more time doing this than me and I know there are some very smart people up there.

So that is their story and they are sticking to it. I hope it happens. Here is what the Euro just came out with.

euro

There is still a band of snow moving east across southern Utah. At this rate, it would not surprise me to see snow break out again later today, which is exactly what the Euro is showing, it just disagrees with how much snow will fall.

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