Tuesday Model Update

In the last 24 hours, the GFS has had successive “perfect storm” model runs. I have 4 to share with you. I only have 2 runs from the Euro because my overnight and afternoon runs of the Euro only have 90 hours of data that I have access to, and the storm would be roughly 160 hours out.

It’s important that you know that I don’t just pull up the snow totals from these model runs and post them here. I study several parameters with each model run and I look at the set up for all of North America and try to determine any glaring irregularities

So here are the last 24 hours of GFS runs they all start the snow sometime on Christmas eve and they all continue through the 26th.

This was yesterday morning after I posted


This was yesterday afternoon


This was yesterday evening


This was overnight


And now the European model


Yesterday evening Euro


So you might be wondering why this Euro is so different. The GFS is pretty consistent in bringing the storm deep down the pacific coast before coming onshore and heading our way. In the last run of the Euro the model brings the storm in very shallow and what little energy it has goes to the north of Colorado. Interesting to note that if you look into the Euro deeper on this run it shows a tropical storm hitting New Orleans, no other model shows anything close to this. As I said it will probably be a roller coaster of model runs between now and then.

The NWS is sitting up and taking notice of the GFS, this was from their the overnight discussion:

“Holiday travel could be significantly impacted as this first wave spreads
precipitation across the region Wednesday, with another colder and
stronger low-pressure system potentially arriving just after
Christmas. Stay tuned for updated forecasts as this weather pattern
evolves, especially if you are planning to travel over the Christmas

So cautious optimism takes over for me. The one thing that I like about it is timing. Historically, we have had a number of significant storms on before and after Christmas, so it is believable that it could happen again. Next update Wednesday morning.

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