The GFS Model Goes To The Border

Snow in Tucson anyone? The last 18 hours and last 3 runs of the GFS have been showing a couple of hundred-mile detour with the storm track. Being 7 days away, you can’t rule anything out, however, it does seem unlikely that this time of year we would see an October storm track. This started with the afternoon run.

Yesterday morning it looked just as encouraging as it has been.

Yesterday morning GFS run

gfs121712z

Then it started changing to the southerly track and this is the result

Yesterday afternoon GFS

gfs121718z

A big difference but it gets worse

Last night GFS

gfs12180z.png

Overnight GFS

gfs121806z.png

Stick with me here, that is only through Friday the 27th, then it does this over the weekend with another storm, remember this second storm when I show you the Euro in a little bit.

GFS last night total through Sunday 12/29 I know my New Mexico followers will like this.

gfs121806zSunday

Now on to better news the Euro

Yesterday mornings Euro run

euro1712z

Euro yesterday evening

euro12180z

That is better run to run consistency, remember I mentioned a second storm? The Euro does not extend that many hours out but if you look at the regional view you can see it is on its way.

euro12180zregion

So my cautious optimism continues, if you are wondering about the Canadian, it is similar to the Euro bringing in snow Christmas Eve and Christmas day and night, then it brings in another storm for the weekend similar to both the GFS and Euro. These second storm scenarios are common but rarely go according to plan, sometimes the model ends up right for the wrong reasons. In other words, the totals may be right at the end of the event, but the way the storm reaches those totals are different than how the models originally depicted.

By the way, if you have travel plans before the 23rd you should be fine. After that, it gets more complicated and I will be addressing that as we get closer.

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