Five Day Warm-Up Then A Pattern Change

The countdown continues and the models keep evolving. Yesterday I talked a little bit about models being “right for the wrong reason”. When we first started looking at the models’ depiction of the Christmas storm they were predicting significant precipitation over a short period of time. The models are now in a phase where they show significant precipitation occurring over 2-3 different waves over several days with periods of no or light snow in between the storms. So rather than show you 20+ model maps I will just show the 10-day totals on the model runs.  Since we have 5 days of no weather what I am sharing is 4-5 day totals starting on Christmas. That does not mean the snow stops after that.

So I will start with the GFS from Wednesday morning

gfs121812z240hr

Then Wednesday afternoon, an interesting run which was the only one to show just one small Christmas eve event.

gfs121818z240hr

Wednesday evening

gfs121900z240hr.png

Overnight

gfs121906z240hr.png

Again what we are seeing is the 4-5 day total of snow starting on Christmas Eve/Christmas.

And here is the Euro yesterday morning

euro121812z240hr.png

Here is the Euro from last night

euro121900z240hr.png

Here are the liquid-equivalent totals from that same run.

euro121900zliquid240

So the countdown continues with still a number of variables but I am still cautiously optimistic, if these model runs continue to produce significant precipitation over the period I will drop the “cautiously” this weekend. As I said yesterday if your travel is complete before Christmas Eve, you will be in great shape. If you are traveling between the 24th-29th we should have a pretty good idea by Sunday what you will be up against.

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