Flow has switched to southerly and the snow has picked up at Purgatory and according to webcams between Mancos and Lake Durango. NWS reposted all of the existing advisories and the warning as written. The low is just west of Flagstaff and it has been moving north northeast. All of the models still show enhanced snowfall rates as the day progresses, in fact, the NWS is calling for one to two inch per hour rates above 8,500 feet this afternoon. The low elevation temps are not favorable for snow at the moment but they could definitely lower as cooler air moves in and if heavy snow develops it will lower snow levels. Where the low is located right now in Arizona the snow level is around 5,000′. The point forecasts have not changed for total daytime snowfall, which is interesting if not encouraging. With the low so far away it makes me wonder if the nighttime forecasts will need to be adjusted. The NWS actually mentions the evening commute as being impacted for the lower elevations.
In the advisory wording, they mention rain changing to snow in Cortez this afternoon. It seems like an interesting thing to throw out there without any follow up.
O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0022.000000T0000Z-191228T1200Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
1019 AM MST FRI DEC 27 2019
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
SATURDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOW RATES EXCEEDING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES.
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO,
BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
1019 AM MST FRI DEC 27 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING…
* WHAT…SNOW WITH RAIN TURNING OVER TO SNOW IN THE CORTEZ AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
* WHERE…FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN
AND ANIMAS RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING.
* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY,
AND LAKE CITY
1019 AM MST FRI DEC 27 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
SATURDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOW RATES
EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR TODAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES ALONG
THE NORTHERN SAN JUAN PEAKS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU
AND DALLAS DIVIDE.
* WHEN…UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY.
* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS
As I said the center of the system is currently over Flagstaff here, it is churning the moisture up
I will update again later this afternoon. I appreciate everyone’s reports please keep them coming, I may not be able to address them all but I do my best to read them.