Better Model Agreement Short Term Then Model Mayhem Long Term

The models are in a little better agreement for what to expect over the next 90 hours, they are beginning to converge on another light snow solution for Saturday and Sunday. Coincidentally, the MJO forecast is similar (in phase 5) until the 13th which is Monday. After that, the models diverge with the Canadian and GFS going into a moderate phase 6 for 4-5 days then slowly drift down to a low amplitude phase 6 by the 20th. The Euro and the NOAA CFS model agree that that the MJO will go into a very low amplitude phase 6, then into a null phase by the 20th. A null phase means the weather is less likely to be affected by the MJO.

Since I talked about the MJO again here are the current forecasts. I have indicated the amplitude with a red line on the left sides and bottom of the phase diagrams.

GFS                                                                              Euro

mjogfsmjoeuro

The GFS is going into a moderate to high phase 5, the Euro is going into a moderate phase 5.

Here is what climatology look like for phase 5 and 6.

Temp anomaly                                                      Precip anomaly

phase56temps.JPGphase56precip.JPG

You know the drill on these–yellow and orange are above normal temps, blues are below normal temps. The darker the shade the higher the anomaly. Greens are above-normal precip browns are below normal precip. The higher the amplitude the phase is in, the more pronounced the effect of the anomaly.

Back to Thursday and Friday, as I cautioned yesterday, even if everything came together perfectly it would not generate a lot of snow. Right now the Euro is still favoring a deeper track and the GFS is favoring a faster more northerly track.

Here are the projected totals through Friday.

Euro

eurosnowfri.png

GFS

gfssnowfri.png

That is the best info we have to work with at this time, we have another 48 hours+ to track this. Next update Wednesday morning.

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