Tomorrow we could see some effects from a trough passage but overall it will be a very low producing positively tilted trough. The best chance for accumulating snow will likely be Telluride over to Red Mountain with 2-5 inches. Dolores County could pick up 1-3 inches and Purgatory and Wolf Creek could get 1-2 inches if they are lucky. There is a “BUT” involved. There is another feature that develops on the European model, but not so much on the American models. This feature would track just to our south, if that were to verify before during or right after the trough passage, then areas in the southern half of the border counties could get 1-3 inches as well. I don’t anticipate any models changing too much in today’s later runs, but it will be the first thing I look at when I get up early tomorrow morning.
For now, it looks like we may get some squalls to come through before and after the passage, but again this is not a great set up, so it would take quite a change from what I am seeing to deliver anything other than light accumulations for most of us.
The models show an even weaker system trying to come through on Wednesday, we will see. The longer-term is a dartboard at this time, the Euro is showing more of the same but the GFS is trying to show a stormy period for much of the US starting in 8-10 days. I will do a quick update on timing tomorrow morning early. Hang in there, there is plenty of Winter left.