Most of the time, weather media loves to label any precipitation a “storm”. Over the last couple of years, I have occasionally gone off on a rant about this, saying “sometimes it just snows (rains)”. My problem with it is that anyone living in Southwest Colorado has a separate definition of what constitutes a storm. If “it” does not meet our criteria we say “it missed us (again)”.
I exercised some patience this week and let the models’ outputs fall where they may and watched as the GFS which was showing 15 inches of snow across the north valley, take those totals down 2/10 of an inch of liquid this morning. We have been dealing with the NOAA’s newest darling for months now and I have come to the conclusion its upgrade was a complete waste of money again.
The Euro has not done much better, but at worst showed 1/3 of those totals across the higher terrain. The low-resolution Canadian model handled the situation the best.
The best opportunity for excitement is late this afternoon, there is a very slight chance of some convective activity, thunder, graupel perhaps visible lightning. That is something to look forward to as we move into Spring. BTW if you noticed the title of the blog this morning, March 1st is recognized by Meteorologists and Atmospheric Scientists as the first day of Spring.
We will still get some snow above 8,500 feet over the next 24 hours but I am in more in the 2-4 inch camp, with slightly higher totals over Red Mountain Pass. When, if, and where convection breaks out could lead to spotty higher rain and snow totals, but they are impossible to predict this time of year, no promises, nothing is being reflected in the models.