Wednesday Update

Sorry for the late update. The usually reliable high-resolution model this morning had big problems. This is the first day in many months that I can remember it initializing so poorly. When I looked at it at 8 am it was so wrong it gave me nothing to work with. That’s what initializing means in model speak. If it is 8 am and the model says that at 8 am the entire county should be receiving heavy rain and it is not raining anywhere, that’s a problem. Interestingly enough, the model run from 6 hours earlier showed no rain until late this afternoon. The latest model run that is just now coming online is showing mostly scattered showers with activity picking up late this afternoon and through the evening.

I mentioned that I expected a cloudy day today. They have certainly been keeping the convection at bay. There is widespread disagreement among the models in regards to total precipitation accumulation between now and early Thursday.

I don’t see a lot of activity in Arizona, which is troubling because that is where things are supposed to be happening under Monsoonal flow. That being said the dewpoints in our area have been hanging around 50 degrees all day. That is humid for us. Yes, mid to upper 40’s % humidity is high for us in SW Colorado.

PWATs are going to top out at 9 pm tonight with 1.25″ at DRO. That is 225% of seasonal normal. PWAT refers to Precipitable Water Value–the total amount rain that could possibly accumulate if it all fell. CAPE, which is a value assigned to the amount of energy necessary for storm development, is supposed to peak between now and  5 pm. Storms usually lag the peak CAPE value time.

So we’ll see. At the moment it looks like tomorrow will be a little less favorable for heavy rain but Friday is looking really good as is Sunday through Tuesday. With the models struggling as this pattern changes who knows how accurate they will be.

I will try again in the morning. If I don’t have an update out by 10 am, it will be for the same reason I was late today. BTW the 10-day totals still look great, the usually conservative Euro model is off the charts right now with its prediction. I will do an update tomorrow on the 10-day totals.

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