Potent Storm Takes Its Time

We talked at length about the storm slowing down over the last couple of days. Although no model ever showed it, that is exactly what has happened.

If you were all excited about your NWS point forecast, you should probably double-check it because the NWS deflated most of them throughout the entire forecast area. This is not a big surprise to me because there were no model runs that could justify those higher amounts in the low and middle elevations.

Cooler air has been steadily streaming in, and given the location of the storm system at this point, I think there is a good chance that rain will quickly change over to snow tonight. We should be waking up to numerous snow showers throughout the forecast area. Not a single model run from any model has initialized correctly, they all moved the system further south earlier than it has moved so far.

The system has been nearly stationary most of the day. The expanded view of the radar shows its current position (4 pm).

Current temperatures show the same story.

There are still a lot of unknowns with this storm. One of my concerns will be flash freezing in the middle of the night after the precipitation starts falling. This could lead to hazardous conditions for an early commute. Make sure you check your local temp before heading out.

I do believe all areas will see some snow tomorrow. Confidence is highest for Wolf Creek Pass and Ouray to Silverton and Telluride. I have no idea what to expect for mid and lower elevations, especially west of Hwy 550. The heaviest snow will fall where the snow bands set up (the technical term for that is “banding”).

I will be up early with this one, that’s for sure. Don’t misinterpret my frustration with this storm as negativity. The truth is I don’t know what to expect. The fact that the models missed on the storm timing is my frustration. I think the correction in the NWS point forecasts is due to 100% model uncertainty rather than something that occurred with the storm so far.

Check-in early tomorrow morning for the latest! Thanks for following.

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