Ah yes, the frustration of following the data and the NWS guidance for days then waking up looking at the dry pavement outside, I almost forgot how much fun that is.
My first stop after looking outside was my computer. First up the radar, the heavy band of snow that we saw yesterday evening has fallen apart. Next stop webcams. It appears light snow fell on Red Mountain, Silverton, and Telluride. Wolf Creek is getting hammered which is good.
From there it’s time to see what the NWS thinks. Surprisingly enough, they doubled down on all of the advisories and warnings at 10:00 pm which was less than 6 hours ago.
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, AND IGNACIO
954 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2020
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE UPPER DOLORES RIVER AND 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE ANIMAS RIVER BASIN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
318 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2020
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2020
THE MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME CUT OFF OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL COLORADO. THE DEEP FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY IMPRESSIVE RATES YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED, AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER- LEVEL JET IS EXITING THE REGION, SO MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND MODERATE IN SPOTS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND IS WORKING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JUANS WHICH MEANS THE BAND IS MOSTLY SNOW. THE MODELS SHOW THE BAND HOLDING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MAYBE A SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST RATES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SAN JUANS WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW IS CAUSING EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WITHIN THE BAND. THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO TODAY, SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND US-160
CORRIDOR. THE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP ESPECIALLY ONCE THE PRECIP RATES INCREASE ALLOWING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BY SUNRISE. SOME OF THE LIFT WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE EVENING THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER IN THE SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT, BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. ALL OF THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
So according to them, as of 3:15 am everything is going according to plan, all of the highlights and additional totals look to be on track, no major changes are needed.
That is what they say. That is what the short term models say. I will give it a few hours and see how things evolve. To me, it seems like it would be a tall order to get 7 or more inches in the mid-elevations during the day today.