Monday-Tuesday Storm

Published at 2 pm Friday 1/15/21

Yesterday I talked about a series of storms that would start roughly on Monday or Tuesday with additional systems coming in every couple of days for an extended period of time. I showed the 10-day totals yesterday but today, I want to start concentrating on just the first system. This is the one that the models are currently agreeing will arrive late Monday or early Tuesday morning.

If things happen the way that the big three models agree that it will, this is going to be an interesting storm. The Euro, GFS, and Canadian are all forecasting a retrograding storm with snow filling in from the south and east. That could lead to different orographics than we usually experience and could lead to some interesting totals in different locations.

Here is what that looks like in animated form from the Euro model. Blue is snow, the darker the shade, the heavier the snow.

Because I am only showing the Monday/Tuesday totals ending on Wednesday morning, the totals are less than what I posted yesterday.  Don’t worry the long-term pattern still looks very intriguing.

Here is the GFS for storm one.


GFS snow

German model liquid

German snow

Canadian liquid

Canadian snow

Euro liquid

Euro snow

Looking beyond that, the Euro and Canadian go crazy bringing in a big storm or series of storms starting next Friday and lasting throughout the weekend, the GFS shows a smaller storm followed by a large storm the following week.

The totals that the models are showing are very significant in the next 10 days. They are higher than what I posted yesterday. I am reluctant to post them because that second storm (or series of storms) is still a week away.

If I see several more model runs that agree with those amounts, or if I see the GFS getting on board with a bigger weekend storm, I will start posting the totals.

Confidence is growing for some much-needed snow on Tuesday, and I am very intrigued by the long term pattern showing up on the models. Next Update Saturday, thanks for following and supporting the page!

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