Slightly Cooler With A Chance Of Storms

6/23/21 Wednesday 9:45 am

For the last several days the models have been trending towards a pattern change for our forecast area. I have been reluctant to talk about it because I was concerned that the models would flip back to the hot and dry conditions we have been experiencing for the last 3 weeks. All of the models show that today will be a transitional day as moisture continues to stream in from the southwest. In the short term, the change can be attributed to a closed area of low pressure sitting off the west coast.

Another interesting thing I am seeing is the potential for high-altitude non-accumulating snow above 11,000 feet over the next couple of days.

For today, CAPE values are going to be fairly low. This means moisture will be the primary driver for any thunderstorms that develop later today.  The mid and higher elevations will be favored for a bit of rain later today as well as the next couple of days.

Short-term high-resolution model guidance shows some dangerous wind gusts (exceeding 50 mph) developing in the lower and mid-elevations early this evening (6 to 9 pm). If the model is correct, it is likely sniffing out a thunderstorm collapsing with strong outflow gusts.

Putting the maps in motion from 4 to 9 pm, this event is very visible tracking from southwest to northeast.

Tomorrow, more moisture will be in the area and storm chances increase for widespread thunderstorms.

Thanks in advance for any weather reports! Next update Thursday, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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