That Was Fun!

Thursday 9/2/21  9:00 am

It was a wet Wednesday indeed! Yesterday we experienced what is called stratiform precipitation, my favorite. Which is consistent moderate rain falling for an extended period of time over a widespread area. Most models were too low with their forecasts, especially given the fact that the totals I posted were two-day totals.

We won’t experience stratiform precipitation today. Today, we will go back to isolated afternoon thunderstorms. More on that later.

Here are the totals so far. I tried to group them as best as I could geographically.

DW1&2  1.10″-1.30″  Hesperus 1.1″-1.30″  Lake Durango 1.15″  Rafter J 0.87″-1.03″  Wildcat Canyon 1.02″  Shenandoah 1.35″  Mancos (town) 0.44″(Elkstream) 0.66″  Red Mesa/Marvel 0.73-1.30″ Dolores 0.75″  Cortez 0.75″  Rico 0.40″

Telluride 0.25″-0.36″  Silverton 0.39″ Ouray 0.13″  Ridgway (nil)

Durango reports 0.70″, 0.75″, 0.75″, 0.78″ 0.68″  Skyridge 0.70″

Hermosa Cliffs 0.95″  Twilight Peaks 0.95″  Lake Purgatory 0.75″  Lakewood Meadows 1.61″  Tamarron 0.82″ Hermosa 0.89″ Bar D 0.90″  Falls Creek 0.85″-0.94″  Trimble 0.80″

Florida River Estates 0.76″  Los Ranchitos 0.70″  Vallecito 0.98″-0.99″  Forest Lakes 0.73″  3 Miles north of Bayfield 1.30″ Pagosa 0.61″, 0.54″, 0.72″

Gem Village 1.02″ Ignacio 0.82″  Bondad 0.59″ Aztec 0.58″

Edgemont and Bayfield are not on the list because they lack personal weather stations on the network.

Today is a more difficult forecast. There is an area of low pressure in East-Central Utah that is producing southwest flow into the forecast area.

Here is the latest surface map.

According to the real-time satellite analysis, the low is spinning just north of the area indicated on the surface.

High-resolution models are indicating limited CAPE values today. However, the cloud cover parameter from the same model shows clouds diminishing after 12 pm. This may give enough time to sufficiently heat things up to fuel the residual moisture in the atmosphere and develop isolated thunderstorms. Depending on the shortwave’s track it could also enhance convection. The models are not handling that piece of the equation very well.

At this point, I can’t rule out isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A lot of areas are fairly saturated right now after yesterday. If a thunderstorm does develop and produces heavy rains it could be an issue. I will be keeping a close eye on the situation.

The smoke may return on Friday, nothing dangerous. More on the mid to long-term outlook, and Friday’s smoke forecast on my update tomorrow.

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