10/6/21 Wednesday 8:15 am
I should probably be talking about the 0.20″ to 0.50″ of rain we got overnight. I should be talking about the showers winding down and departing the area. At a minimum, I should be talking about the upcoming unsettled weekend. Unfortunately, the models are all over the place for this weekend. I will be addressing the weekend as the models come into better focus.
For now, let’s enjoy this. This was Molas Pass this morning.
If you like this, wait until next week. While the models are in very poor agreement for the weekend, they are already in excellent agreement for next week.
At the moment, both the deterministic and ensemble family models are showing a major winter storm dumping significant snow (for October) across the forecast area. This is a much colder storm that will deliver snow down to the lower elevations. I have been tracking it for a few days, and I first mentioned it a couple of days ago. When I saw the snow on Molas this morning my first instinct was to check the models.
Of course, I checked on the weekend first. With so much model disagreement I moved on to next week. I am very pleased with what I saw. Yes, things can change and we may be on a roller coaster ride of model runs before we get there. But for now, things look pretty good.
Here are the latest runs showing the snow for next week.
When we are roughly a week out, it is usually a good idea to see how well these single model runs line up with their respect ensemble families. The Euro ensemble shows the average of 50 models within its family. The GFS has 21 model members.
Assuming everything comes together as advertised, this will end the growing season with temperates falling to the low 20s in the lower elevations with single digits in the mountains.
M next update will be Thursday. Hopefully, the models will have a better handle on the weekend. Thanks for following and supporting the site!