Wednesday’s Storm

11/20/21 Saturday 4:45 am

For today, light snow showers will develop over mostly Ouray county late this afternoon. The showers will spill into portions of San Juan and San Miguel counties. The snow showers will fall throughout the night. Accumulations from dusting to 2 inches may occur at the highest elevations.

The last couple of cycles of model runs are in slightly better agreement regarding timing (only). There are still a variety of solutions on storm track and precipitation amounts.

As is often the case the models are slowing down the onset of precipitation until late Tuesday night or very early Wednesday morning.  The models keep the snow falling on Wednesday and it moves out by Thursday in most areas.

Here is the latest run of the European model. I picked the European model because this latest run is showing a more direct storm track. I am getting more emails from people who are traveling Wednesday or have family traveling to see them on Wednesday. All of the emails have asked about conditions over the 160 passes.  They are most interested in what the worst-case scenario for travel would be i.e. the most snow. The map starts at 8 pm on Tuesday and concludes Thursday at 2 pm.

In this scenario, the snow level quickly drops to around 6,500 feet after midnight.

Here are the snow totals for the forecast area.

Here are the state totals for those concerned with travel.

I mentioned this as a worst-case scenario for those who are worried about the storm affecting travel.  Does that mean that this is the best-case scenario for those of us who want snow? Not so much, this is simply the operational model which is showing the most snow for the 160 passes. Everything could come together at the last minute and we could double these amounts, or we could end up with much less.  Hopefully, we will get a better model consensus over the next couple of days

After Thursday we will likely go into another boring weather pattern until the first (or second) week in December.

My next update will be Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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