3/20/22 Sunday 12:45 pm
Several days ago it looked like this system had the potential to deliver some decent precipitation to the area. The models have flipped back and forth, and continue to do so.
I waited until after all of the morning model runs were updated in hopes that there would be a better model consensus but that did not happen. The German model is an outlier with the idea that the low pressure will form and track further north closer to Colorado.
In the last 24 hours, the GFS and Euro have also both had runs where that happens. In that scenario, SE La Plata County and SW Archuleta County would see enhanced precipitation. Areas that would be affected would be along the 151 corridor from Ignacio to just north of Navajo Lake. Overall, I would give that scenario a 30% chance of happening.
Telluride and Ouray should end up with 2 to 4 inches by late Monday night. Red Mountain and Wolf Creek may get 3 to 5 inches. If other areas see snow it should be 2 inches or less. Light rain is possible initially below 8,000 feet. Rain may change to snow overnight.
Most models agree that after a lull on Tuesday light snow showers may develop Tuesday evening.
In the longer term, it still looks like there are a couple of more storms possible between March 28th through the first few days of April.
My next update will be on Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!