Long Term Update

7/12/22 Tuesday 6:45 am

The key takeaway today is don’t worry. The extended models are in excellent agreement that our monsoon will continue and be bountiful. It is not the type of thing that you can gauge on a daily basis. I have relied on these long-term models for quite a while. They tend to underpromise and over-deliver. They are coded to do so. So when I see the GFS extended totals through August 14th versus the Euro extended totals through August 14th in great agreement, I can’t help but smile. There is so much negative news out there, you can easily find it, but you are not going to get it here.

Showers were slightly more widespread yesterday than Sunday. A few areas mostly north of Coal Bank saw some decent showers on Sunday, yesterday the showers expanded a little further south into the central portions of the forecast area. More of the same for the next couple of days, expect the unexpected. Some of the models are even showing some snow at the 14,000-foot level for the next couple of afternoons.

Small thunderstorms will develop across the area due to daytime heating and monsoonal moisture. I know it sounds like an excuse but these Meso-Scale Convective Systems are very difficult to forecast in our area. They will be the rule for the next several days. The moisture is expected to increase as we go into the weekend.

Back to the future. The future looks wet! I mentioned the extended-term model runs earlier. Let’s jump into that. The GFS has a “shorter” long-term outlook with its extended model and currently runs through August 14th. The Euro extended runs through August 25th. Here are their latest forecast precipitation totals.

GFS through August 14th