Hardrock 100 forecast (local forecast will be out this afternoon)

7/15/22 Friday 5:20 am
(Photo from website)
The conditions look typical for those planning on running 100 miles on purpose starting this morning. One of the biggest concerns with this event is lightning. We gauge the lightning potential from the CAPE forecast. The CAPE values look particularly elevated over the next 24 hours.
Here is the CAPE  forecast from 6 am today until 6 am Saturday. Lightning/thunderstorms are generally possible when CAPE values surpass 500. Notice the elevated values this afternoon between Telluride and Ouray.
CAPE forecasts are not usually reliable more than 18 hours out, I will post the updated forecast tomorrow early.
Showers will be isolated across the route area this morning, becoming widespread by 1 to 2 pm. The focus for the precipitation will be across the western portions of the course where most will be. I will update the forecast tomorrow early, it looks like the showers are going to follow the participants to the eastern portions of the course tomorrow.
My local weekend forecast will be out this afternoon.
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