7/16/22 Saturday 5:30 am
It has been fascinating watching the progress of the participants of the Hardrock 100. As of 4:45 am Saturday, the majority of the runners are between the 55-mile and 65-mile mark.. A large group is on Handies Peak. 3 have finished so far. 3 more should finish in the next 3 to 4 hours. If you want to check them out here is a link.
CAPE values will be high throughout the forecast area. The highest values will be west of where the runners are, but they will still be high in Hinsdale and San Juan County. As is usually the case, the best chance of storms developing will be between noon and 3 pm.
For the rest of us that are rooting for storms, despite high CAPE values, the best chances will be across the higher elevations of the north, as well as the eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
Models are indicating a slightly better chance of scattered storms on Sunday. The models struggle with the track of the high pressure which is responsible for directing the moisture plume and the monsoonal flow across the southwest. It appears the high pressure is going to move west today and then wobble back east tomorrow which would be more favorable for the lower elevations.
The big difference between last month and this month is that there were more systems coming through the Pacific Northwest, and they dropped far enough south to grab ahold of the monsoonal flow. In the last week to 10 days, those systems are staying much further north closer to the Canadian border. As I said yesterday, I still like what I am seeing on the extended models and I will update the long-term forecast on Tuesday morning when I get the new data.
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