7/19/22 Tuesday 5:15 am

I considered combining the short, mid, and long-term updates together but decided not to for a couple of reasons. The mid and long-term update will be out later today and I will cover the weekend, the rest of the month, and August.

A few sneaky storms developed late Sunday and brought anywhere from a few hundredths to 0.60 inches of rain. The amounts varied quite a bit and were hyper local. One area would do pretty well, then a mile in any direction little or no rain fell. It shows how much of our monsoon season depends on the influence of other factors to really draw in the monsoonal flow like we saw a couple of weeks back.

For the short term, more of the same. Through Friday, I don’t expect a lot of activity, an occasional pop up shower (like Sunday night) is possible but highly unpredictable.

Models are indicating a possible change coming up for the weekend, but they have different ideas on when things will start. The GFS is quicker developing showers (as it always is) while the Canadian and Euro are mostly holding off until Sunday. The models are picking up on a low pressure system moving through the southwest which would direct that beneficial moisture into our area.

More on that in the mid and long term update. I will have that out this afternoon.

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