9/12/22 Monday 6:30 am

It is feeling very fall-like across the forecast area with temps in the low to mid-40s. A few notable exceptions are Vallecito and Lemon in the upper 30s. Silverton is 30 degrees. Just outside of the forecast area, it is in the mid to upper 20s in the Gunnison Valley. We have not yet reached the lows for the day, so I expect a couple of degrees lower in the next hour or so. We should have brilliant fall colors this year, please send me reports and I will share them with everyone.

Today will be a little warmer than the last 2 days. Once again isolated convective showers will develop this afternoon. Yesterday showers developed mainly over eastern portions of the forecast area.

Later today the high-pressure ridge will slowly begin to move east of the forecast area. This is in response to a shortwave trough moving in from our west. Remnant moisture from post-tropical storm/disturbance Kay will become entrained in the trough in SW flow.

PWAT (precipitable water values) will be on the increase in the overnight hours. The atmosphere will become saturated throughout the day on Tuesday leading to widespread showers. Don’t mistake these showers for the monsoon, the monsoon is done until next year. Showers will continue on Wednesday, at this time models are mixed for Thursday. If we get a bunch of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, it is likely that showers will redevelop Thursday afternoon. Snow will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday at or above 12,000 feet.

I have a couple of action-packed days ahead. I have to drive to ABQ early Tuesday morning so I will not be able to get an update out. I will be back Tuesday afternoon so I will do an update Wednesday morning.

Please send me weather reports/totals Tuesday and Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!