Sunday Morning Update–Better Model Agreement For Heavy Rain

9/18/22 Sunday 6:45 am
The models are coming together and trending towards a wetter forecast for SW Colorado and NW New Mexico.
Humidity and Precipitable Water Values will start to increase Monday afternoon. On Tuesday those values will continue to grow steadily throughout the day resulting in a good chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday we will see the heaviest rain which will continue into Thursday. Things should start to dry out on Friday.
Here are the Precipitable Water Values (PWAT) relative to the average for this time of year.  We will start at about 140% of average and go up to 250%-320% of average on Wednesday and Thursday.
Here are the latest forecasted precipitation totals for Tuesday through Friday.
WPC NOAA/Weather Prediction Center blended model
It will be interesting to see how things pan out in the northern portions of the forecast area. The current GFS run is showing much higher totals in Telluride than any other model. It has also been less consistent from run to run.
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