A Wet Week Beginning Tuesday Afternoon

9/19/22 Monday 5:30 am
Moisture is headed our way and most locations in the forecast area will end up with above-average precipitation for September. For today, there will be a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers.  Scattered showers will develop on Tuesday afternoon first over the higher terrain then moving into the middle and finally lower elevation areas. Showers should become more widespread later in the day as abundant moisture arrives. The heaviest rain will fall Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. This is when we may see the greatest chances of flash flooding.

With the exception of the GFS, all of the models are showing totals higher than 2 inches for most of the forecast area this week.

NOAA’s blended models are really spreading the love across the forecast area.
Here is the latest European
Then there is the GFS–no comment
The European Ensemble model shows an average run of 52 model members. Here is the latest.
This is likely the reason the NOAA blended models are coming in so high. It also gives a boost of confidence to their forecast.
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