9/25/22 Sunday 5:45 am
There is not a lot to talk about right now. We are under a dome of high pressure which should begin to move and allow a little more moisture into the area each day. The result will be hit-and-miss afternoon convection which will favor the higher terrain. Some of the models are hinting at a more active pattern beginning Wednesday or Thursday, it is still too early to tell.
Nationally, I am watching the trough in the east and its potential effects on what will become Hurricane Ian. A couple of models show a track that would lead to some activity along the Gulf Coast of Florida. Florida followers or anyone traveling to the Gulf Coast of Florida early this week should stay tuned.
Back to SW Colorado, the other thing jumping off the forecast maps at me is a better chance of light snow showers this week around or above the 12,000-foot level. Yesterday I drove the new DWG mobile command unit up La Plata Canyon and saw some decent color (finally) around the 11,000-foot level. Another night of strong radiational cooling overnight has resulted in temperatures in the 30s in some of the mid-elevation areas to mid to upper 20s in some higher elevation locations this morning. Leaves should really get going in the higher elevations by mid-week.
I am still not ready to talk about winter yet, that is neither a good thing nor a bad thing. There are forecasters like myself who subscribe to the idea that there is a correlation between a tropically active October and winter. ENSO (La Nina and El Nino) does have an impact on our winter, but not as much in our forecast area as people think. I see a lot of La Nina-based cookie-cutter winter forecasts floating around out there right now, and I am not necessarily following in those footsteps.
Depending on what I see in the models over the next 24 hours I may or may not post an update on Monday. On Tuesday I will do an extended outlook.
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