Pattern Change Next Weekend?

10/17/22 Monday 6:30 am
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Wide-spread showers and thunderstorms eventually developed throughout the forecast area. Liquid precipitation totals ranged from 0.10 inches to over 1.00 inches. Overall, the models under-forecasted the event and were incorrect with the strict southern track.
For today, the models are expecting showers to re-develop this afternoon, but the showers should be more isolated to scattered. We’ll see, there may be enough residual moisture to spark some convection in the areas that had the heaviest precipitation yesterday.
Starting tomorrow, a ridge of high pressure should build back over the forecast area until Saturday. Things could get interesting late Saturday through Monday morning or so. To make matters more interesting, the models are showing snow levels dropping down to around the 7,000 level (possibly slightly lower) near the end of the event. They are also showing the possibility of a second storm arriving in the middle of next week.
So I might as well get on board the snow model rollercoaster because I am sure every other forecaster will do so this week. Just remember things can change, and everything has to come together just right for good storms to hit us.
With all of that being said, it is fun to start tracking the totals when all of the models are in agreement this early. So here is a first look at the totals (before melting) through Wednesday.
Stay tuned, I will be tracking the potential storms all week!
My next update will be on Tuesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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