Tuesday Extended Outlook

10/18 Tuesday 8:45 am

Before I get started, I forgot to mention in my morning update that I will be updating the prize list on Saturday for the 2022 contest. A fine local establishment contacted me yesterday and they have donated (4) $50 gift cards for their restaurant. If you have not checked out the contest details yet, find out more by clicking here: 2022 Contest Overview–The Largest Ever

Extended Outlook

I have been relying on the Monday night run of the Euro Weeklies pretty heavily since May. The model did a good job with the monsoon this year, I am hoping it will be as successful this winter. It is starting to influence the thoughts regarding our winter in SW Colorado. I will have more to say about that in a couple of weeks.

First I want to look at the liquid precipitation anomalies. They are positive (above average) for the western slope and negative (below average) for the Front Range.

The amounts listed are not totals they are the amounts above or below average.

Now through November 17th

Now through December 1st.

Next, we will look at the temperature anomalies over the same time periods.

Through November 17th

Through December 1st

The model overall shows below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation for the western slope. It shows exactly the opposite across the Front Range.

Here are the total snow forecasts before melting.

Through November 17th

Through December 1st

Back by popular demand, here are the “City Charts” showing the snowfall before melting at the various Airports across SW Colorado.

Cortez (CEZ)

The top left which shows 0-50 is showing the snow forecast from each ensemble family member. The top right shows the color-coded bar graph showing the total amount of snowfall before melting. The bottom shows the mean (average) of all of the ensemble family members. The “control” is a raw data run that has not been bias corrected.

Montrose Regional