Wednesday Update–Winter Storm On Track for Early Sunday Arrival

10/19/22 Wednesday 9 am
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Winter Storm Update

I am getting so excited about this storm that I am waking up in the middle of the night just to check out the latest model runs. I will probably start doing afternoon model updates, no later than Thursday, if I can I will start them today.

This is a great storm to put the maps into motion. By far, the European model has been the most consistent model with this storm, so let’s take a look. This shows the condition beginning Saturday night at 6 pm and ending Monday at 6 pm.

Regional View

If you are new to all of this, green is rain, snow is blue, and the darker the shades of colors the heavier the rate of rain or snowfall. In the regional view, you can see the low pressure deepen in Utah and then arrive in an ideal position to our southwest

Local View

.There is still some disagreement among the models regarding snow levels. The European model is very aggressive at this point. The other models are hovering at or slightly below 8,000 feet towards the end of the storm.

The models all agree that we will experience the coldest temperatures of the season so far, on Monday morning. Colder temperatures will continue next week and there is the potential for a second storm mid to late next week. There is going to be plenty to talk about. My wife was planning her schedule for next week and asked me “how long will the bad weather last?” I said, “you mean the good weather?”

Here are the forecast precipitation amounts for liquid and frozen precipitation Sunday through Monday.

The GFS always under forecasts the totals in the lower elevations. It has been the most inconsistent model. So keep that in mind when you look at the totals. For the models that display snow amounts, a 10-1 ratio is shown–10 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid precipitation. I expect the higher elevations will experience a higher ratio, 12 to 1 or greater with this cold storm.

GFS liquid

GFS snow

The Canadian model has a bad reputation with forecasters nationally. I think it is a great cold weather model. In the last couple of years, I feel it has performed better in Colorado than the GFS model. That being said, it seems to be consistently over-forecasting the liquid precipitation amounts for this storm, we’ll see. If it continues this trend, I won’t completely discount it. 40 inches of snow at Wolf Creek in less than 48 hours is by no means unprecedented, it just seems like a bit much for this system.

Canadian liquid

Canadian Snow

NOAA’s NBM model liquid


German model liquid

European model liquid


European model snow


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