11/1/22 Tuesday 6:40 am
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An early Winter Storm Watch has been issued in anticipation of the storm arriving late Wednesday night.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
308 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2022
COZ019-012145-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0009.221103T0000Z-221104T1500Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
308 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2022
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE A FOOT ARE MOST PROBABLE ABOVE 9000 FEET.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
Consider this their first draft as there are a lot of “holes” in this Winter Storm Watch. Telluride will eventually be included in at least a Winter Weather Advisory. Also, I think Friday morning is probably too early of an end time.
Pueblo NWS also chimed in for Wolf Creek. They never venture too far out on a limb with their guidance.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2022
COZ068-011800-
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.A.0010.221103T0000Z-221104T1500Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
357 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2022
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN…FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY-BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
Meanwhile, expect breezy and slightly warmer conditions today and tomorrow, however, increasing clouds may limit the amount of warming.
Little else has changed in the last 24 hours, precipitation should get underway in the higher elevations late Wednesday dropping by Thursday morning. I am still all in for my “all snow” level of 8,000 by Thursday morning, I do expect this to drop throughout the day on Thursday. I will be preparing more of a detailed forecast for this storm which will be out late Wednesday.
For now, let’s still go with the models’ total liquid precipitation maps. The most important part of the graphic is the numerical chart on the right side or immediately below the map. The colors correspond to the numerical chart which details the precipitation output for the duration of the storm.
I continue to be most comfortable with NOAA’s blended model solutions
NBM
WPC
Next up would be the Canadian, although, I think the totals are a bit over-inflated, we’ll see.
Believe it or not, the GFS comes next.
Followed by the European, I think the Euro is trying to introduce some southerly-southeasterly flow here, which would be highly unusual.
I will be posting my extended outlook later today. Thanks for following and supporting the site and the contest!
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