1/22/23 Sunday 3:15 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
232 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2023  
  
COZ019-222230-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0006.230123T0600Z-230124T0000Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
232 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO  
5 PM MST MONDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8   
  INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. 

I am not sure where I stand on this. These small storms are always tricky. There are more models arguing for this advisory than against it. These amounts are a balance between the European model, which shows lower snow totals, and every other model I follow which show near Winter Storm Warning criteria.

The problem I have with this is the setup. Patterns tend to repeat themselves. The models are focusing on the higher elevation areas. This storm is going to want to dive south (again). That could lead to higher accumulations in the lower elevations (again). The models do not reflect that (again). How many times am I going to fall for it?

I would be very cautious, it looks like the snow is going to build in throughout the forecast area between 11 pm tonight and 2 am tomorrow. If this stays north, that will be one thing, if it dives south which is not in the forecast, it could get messy.

I have my other eye surgery early Monday morning (that alone argues for the storm diving south). So I am going to be out of commission until probably Tuesday afternoon. For travelers, this storm is not going to be as bad as we have seen, but it may be impactful over the passes, as well as northern Arizona and central New Mexico.

I can’t promise that I will be able to field a lot of emails before Tuesday afternoon, I have an emergency oral procedure that is going to be performed later today, then my eye surgery early tomorrow. Thanks for your patience.

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