3/18/23 Saturday 4:30 am
The models continue to pump out impressive precipitation totals for next week as a couple of massive storms will blanket the area. The biggest change I am seeing is an earlier start time. Models are starting to show the precipitation beginning late Sunday night/early Monday morning. With the storm still out to sea, I would not write that start time in ink just yet. That being said, I expect we will see the first draft of Winter Storm Warnings out by Sunday morning.
Still unsettled are the rain/snow levels, they have been trending lower than the last couple of systems, however, based on the amount of precipitation being forecasted, the tropical source of the precipitation, and the high sun levels of mid-March, I am having a difficult time processing how much snow could possibly accumulate at or below 7,000 feet.
Despite my shortfalls in “imagining” how this could happen, the data shows accumulating snow as a possibility in the lower elevations based on the 700mb temperatures. That model parameter is one indicator of snow level based on the forecasted temperatures at around 10,000 feet. This is due to the fact that the low-pressure troughs with these storms will be stronger/deeper than the last couple of storms.
Here are the latest liquid precipitation runs for next week. Pretty amazing.
European–I consider the European model to be the “Debbie Doubter” of models, so these amounts are pretty impressive for this model.
GFS
Canadian–I feel a need to jump in and translate here. The Canadian is showing 8 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation at Wolf Creek. I doubt what I am seeing, but 100 inches of snow in less than a week would not be unprecedented for Wolf Creek. 60-70 inches would not surprise me a bit.
NOAA’s WPC model–This is a very high-resolution model that I have relied heavily upon this season when writing my forecasts.
My next update will be out Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!