3/19/23 Sunday 7:30 am
I will post my forecast later today. This morning I am going to start a bit differently and lead off with the Winter Weather Products that were issued yesterday by the NWS. I was hoping they would get them cleaned up overnight, but that did not happen.
People ask me what I mean by “cleaned up”. Specifically, what I am referring to are difficult to understand Watches, Warnings, and Advisories jumbled all together in one. For example, issuing a Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Watch for the same area with different start and end times and different snow totals for each. Another example would be what I refer to as a “blanket” advisory (watch or warning) which includes very different areas. Here is a perfect example of areas that should not be grouped together because they are in completely different locations.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, COLUMBINE, HAHNS PEAK,
TOPONAS, ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS, BUFORD, TRAPPERS LAKE, TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, MANILA, AND DUTCH JOHN
Last I checked Trappers Lake and Toponas are closer to Steamboat than Telluride.
So here are the edited versions as they apply to our forecast area.
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND MAYDAY
316 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY...
* SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 18 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN.. FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY. FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH, FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. GUSTY
WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND MAYDAY
316 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. GUSTY
WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.
COZ003-004-010-013-018-UTZ023-200000- /O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0007.230321T1800Z-230323T1800Z/ NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TELLURIDE 316 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 10 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST, SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH. * WHEN...FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.
I like the way Pueblo NWS wrote their Winter Storm Warning a little better, I just think they are too low with their forecast amounts…
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023
COZ068-191800-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.A.0010.230320T1500Z-230324T0000Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
347 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1- 3
FEET, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST
AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN...FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING
COMMUTES. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO PERIODS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WITH A LULL OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN BETWEEN.
THE FIRST PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WITH THE SECOND PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To summarize their issuances they are calling for up to 4 feet from Silverton to Purgatory and Coal Bank by Thursday afternoon. Up to 16 inches for Telluride and up to 3 feet for Wolf Creek in the same time period.
As I said, I think the snow will continue at least through the day on Friday at Wolf Creek and their final storm total will be between 3 and 5 feet.
The models have shown little change since my last update. I will be working on a forecast for the weekly event total throughout the day and will post it this afternoon.
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