12/13/23 Wednesday 7 am
My forecast will be out later this afternoon. The model maps are not my forecasts, they are a good way for you to track the consistency of the model runs and whether or not the models think the storm is strengthening or weakening.
Consistency is very good among the models. The change from rain to snow will be a tricky issue. As the storm system approaches it will generate heavier showers, the system will become convective will help the rain change over to snow in the lower elevations later today. The heaviest precipitation should fall after dark.
Right now the odds are high that all locations above 6,500 feet will get measurable snow by tonight into tomorrow morning. This is going to be a southern storm that will favor areas from Coal Bank Pass south, well into New Mexico. This will likely be an impactful storm across northern New Mexico, travelers beware.
In the higher elevations around Purgatory and Wolf Creek, light snow could fall on and off all day, increasing in intensity throughout the day, especially after 2 pm. In the mid-elevations, there should be mixed precipitation throughout the day turning to all snow by late afternoon to early evening.
There are some new advisories out of the NWS offices that were issued. I mentioned yesterday that I would not be surprised to see the lower elevation areas included in the winter storm products today.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
226 AM MST WED DEC 13 2023
COZ022-132300-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0039.231214T0000Z-231214T1800Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, AND IGNACIO
226 AM MST WED DEC 13 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM MST THURSDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
COZ019-132300-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0039.231213T1800Z-231214T1800Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS (MAYDAY)
226 AM MST WED DEC 13 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000
FEET.
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY.
COZ068-131915-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0017.231213T1800Z-231214T1800Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET- WOLF CREEK PASS
412 AM MST WED DEC 13 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
16 INCHES.
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN...FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
And for northern New Mexico
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 AM MST WED DEC 13 2023
NMZ210>215-227>231-131915-
/O.CON.KABQ.WS.W.0014.231213T1800Z-231215T0900Z/
TUSAS MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHAMA-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-GLORIETA MESA
INCLUDING GLORIETA PASS-NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON AND BARTLETT MESAS INCLUDING RATON PASS-FAR
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-HARDING
COUNTY-
246 AM MST WED DEC 13 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
2 AM MST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 4 TO 12 INCHES BELOW 7,500 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10
TO 24 INCHES ABOVE 7,500 FEET. UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN UNION AND HARDING COUNTIES.
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
* WHEN...FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM MST FRIDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. SOME ROADS
MAY BE CLOSED. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DELAYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES.
I don’t want to get too bogged down in the models in this post. There are a number of them showing Winter Storm Warning criteria for much of the southern and central forecast area above 7,300 feet. They also show Winter Weather Advisory amounts down to 6,500 feet.
I have been showing the European and Canadian models all week, so I will stick with them this morning. Don’t be surprised if my afternoon forecasts show more or less snow than these two models!
European liquid equivalent– the European is showing a strong easterly bias with the accumulations. I think the precipitation will be more evenly distributed from west to east. My forecasts will reflect that.
European snow
Canadian liquid equivalent–this is the most ambitious run so far for this storm from the Canadian model. I am anxious to see if the latest model runs follow this trend.
Canadian snow
I will be interested to hear from everyone in the mid-elevation locations above 7,200 feet this afternoon as you change from mixed precipitation to snow. But hold off on reporting snow totals until Thursday afternoon. This will be a difficult storm to measure. Snow will start compacting after an inch. Measure often and keep track of your totals until the end.
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