11/11/26 Wednesday 5:30 am
Overview
No immediate weather to talk about
I had originally targeted 11/14-11/15 as the beginning of the pattern change. I described a storm that would move into Arizona and New Mexico, “missing us to the south.”
That closed low is still coming onshore on Friday, but recent model runs show it tracking further north. Not a big storm, but it could bring 0.50-1.00 inches of liquid. The snow level is predominantly between 8,000 and 9,000 feet. If the models are correct, we could see a slow start Saturday morning, increasing throughout the day and quickly moving out of the area by Sunday morning. This would be the first mid-elevation shot of measurable snow (not just flurries).
If all goes to plan, next week we would see another fairly weak impulse coming through on Tuesday 11/17. Then the larger storm on 11/20 delivering snow to the lower elevations.
Last night, I shared the model’s interpretation of “a perfect storm.” What we won’t know for a few days is if we will see that big perfect storm, or just another smaller storm.
Either way, as I said, which I realize is confusing, I could make a case for either scenario. What I was trying to get across is that I believe there is a high percentage chance of a low-elevation snow-level event on 11/20-11/21; I just can’t judge the intensity yet.
Next update around 1 pm.