11/13/25 Thursday 4 am

Several potentially major winter storms are forecast to impact the region through the end of November, beginning on Sunday. Long-range models indicate a Thanksgiving storm, but it’s too early to worry about it, as it’s still two weeks away.

Depending on which model you choose to root for, 1 1/2 to 6 feet ( not a typo) of snow will be possible across the mountains, with lesser amounts in the lower elevations, of course, by Friday night!

Long-time followers know I am reluctant to share model data this far in advance; however, due to the potential of these storms and the fact that they will be the first of the season, I feel it is important enough to disseminate the information.

Don’t skip over this point; models often change before the events arrive. That being said, when they all start converging on similar ideas, forecasters need to start paying attention.

Those were some big numbers I was citing, and I know some of you are dying to see the maps yourselves.

I will stick with liquid precipitation outputs for now. If the models are correct, Sunday’s event will be the weakest of the bunch. However, the US and Canadian models are showing the “perfect” storm track for the mid-week and late-week storms.

I also won’t be adding the D and T to the maps until we get closer to the events. I expect accumulating snow in the lower elevations if the mid- and late-week storms materialize as the models predict.

Here we go, the liquid precipitation forecasts in inches, through Friday night, November 21st. At or above 9,000 feet, multiply the liquid totals by 11 (for now) to convert to snowfall equivalent.

European

GFS  (US model)

Canadian model comes in strong!

Some of those light brown shades indicate 7 inches of liquid!

What now? Don’t take it to the bank yet, but be aware of what could happen and stay informed. Does anyone have any recommendations for long-lasting AC generators? I am seriously considering buying one to maintain my internet access during the winter storms this season.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather

11/12/25 Wednesday 3:30 pm

Holy schmoly! Look at it go!

4+ feet from Purg to WC by the end of next week?

Fun to watch, but I’m not ready to commit just yet!

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather

11/12/25 Wednesday 4:30 am

Things could look a lot different in the next week or so!

Most models have removed any chance of precipitation until Sunday. Sunday begins a pattern change to cold, wet weather. This will be an abrupt change compared to the pleasant above-average temperatures we have been experiencing lately.

The Sunday event is starting to look locked in. But there are still some timing issues with next week’s (potentially) major winter storm. A warm, moist southwesterly flow will likely keep snow levels low on Sunday, with mostly rain at or below 9,000 feet. By Monday morning, snow levels could potentially drop to 8,000 or lower. These are preliminary levels subject to change between now and then.

I shared a little of the GFS’s enthusiasm yesterday afternoon. The Euro has been behind the GFS in putting this all together. The Canadian model is also just starting to get on board. We could see some colorful forecast maps in the coming days! Additionally, the models indicate that the storm train will just be getting started; it’s not going to be a one-and-done event.

If this storm comes together as the GFS and Canadian models are now forecasting for next week, it could impact travel not only here but across the region.

While it’s still 6 to 8 days away, I cannot yet issue any specific travel guidance. If you have travel plans from Tuesday through Friday next week, you will want to start paying attention to the forecast updates!

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather

Tuesday 11/11/25 3 pm

GFS snow Sunday through Friday.

GFS, don’t get our hopes up!!

 

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather

11/11/25  Tuesday 3:45 am

Yesterday I woke up to a completely different story coming from the models. Twenty-four hours later, there is still no clear picture of our pattern change. The West Coast low that was set to arrive Friday, bringing decent rain and snow, will (apparently) take a more southerly route across New Mexico and may spin up some flurries in the mountains Friday afternoon?

That brings us to the late weekend, and the chance of a rain/snow event beginning on Sunday. The latest European model run indicates a more gradual change starting on Sunday, with additional reinforcing impulses expected for early next week, and an impressive storm arriving on Wednesday, 11/19.

Here are the maps in motion, for what it’s worth, this many days out.

To sum things up, I still believe the change is coming; however, I have low confidence in the timing, including the Friday event/non-event. It would be nice to rule it out entirely or add it back in. I should be able to do that within 36 hours.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather

11/9/25 Sunday 6 am

Finally, something to talk about: the first in a series of storms will start impacting the West Coast mid-week, and if the models are correct, arrive on our doorstep by Friday. A lot could go wrong between now and then, but at least I have something to talk about this week.

Here is the latest model run for this storm—first, the regional view.

European Colorado view beginning Thursday

Not a big deal yet, but it’s a start! Snow totals nudge higher if the storm does not exit the region as quickly as the models expect. Five days out, the European model is showing a rain-snow mix at 6,500 feet.

The GFS model shows higher totals than the Euro, and brings in another storm by Tuesday, while the Euro routes it to our north.

Models continue to diverge as the Euro brings in another storm around the 21st, while the GFS shows it missing us to the east, but hints at another storm before Thanksgiving. It’s too early to speculate about travel conditions.

Regardless of the differences, I should have plenty to keep an eye on and keep you updated this week!

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather

11/1/25 Saturday November ONE, 2025

I can’t let the time change back to standard go unappreciated. Standard Time takes effect tomorrow, of course.

Long-time followers know I loathe “DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME”.

Lots of reasons. The biggest? It delays model output by 1 hour…

Still, nothing is happening. Maps in motion indicate Whistler may have the highest ski area snow totals in the world by Thanksgiving. I will share tomorrow.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather

10/26/25 Sunday 5 am

An overtouted snowstorm will drop a little bit of snow over the northern and central mountains to start the week. Maybe a couple flurries across the NW San Juan Mountains.

After it passes, the ridge cranks up and does its thing, bringing dry conditions and milder temperatures, for a long, long time.

How long? Everyday the models extend it. Currently lasts through November 10th. Dry likes to stay dry, and the models know that.

HOWEVER…The GFS model ends the dry period with a major pattern change to full on winter, around the November 8th.

That would not surprise me at all. Is it too soon to count on? Absolutely. Do I care? No, at least it will be something to track.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather

10/23/25 Thursday 6 am

Last night’s model run backed way off the accumulations for the inbound So Cal Low. I looked at the surface map and radar, two things stood out: 1) The low was further south than I expected, and was slower moving than advertised. 2) The precipitation was moving north quickly, leading me to believe that most of the precipitation would spin north from eastern Utah into Northwest Colorado.

Although that could still happen, the new early morning run showed double to triple the precipitation amounts of the previous run!

So I am slightly more optimistic. I went from low confidence to cautiously optimistic very quickly. Why the change?

I looked at the high-resolution models and they show moderate convection  (thunderstorms) developing, with above-average chances of heavy-rainers. Unfortunately, that would also mean hail.

Here is the latest precipitation forecast. Notice the heaviest precipitation falls across the lower to mid-elevation areas–will this trend continue into the winter? Will it be one of those years? We’re due!

Snow continues to look unimpressive, but present. A couple to a few inches should accumulate over the passes.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

10/22/25 Wednesday 4 am

Most of you know, if you don’t hear from me, then there is either A) very little to talk about. Or B)Were having some struggles at home. The last 7 days have been one of the worst stretches, if not the worst stretch, Susan has gone through. So in this case, both were true.

Calm, typical fall weather for one more day, before a So Cal low (pressure system) approaches overnight into Thursday morning. 558 thickness level translates to snow at or above 9,500 feet for most of the day. This could lead to some minor annoyances in travel over the passes. For now, I would not have too many concerns if I were navigating passes on Thursday throughout the day and Friday morning.

The precipitation initially will favor the southern and central portions of the forecast area (like last time, but much less). That being said, widespread totals across the southern portions of the forecast area show 0.40 to 1.2 inches of rain.

Snow totals will not translate well with that because the further north you head, the less precipitation is expected. Models indicate 1 to 5 inches for the 550 corridor. Late Thursday, the flow flips to the northwest, so that will be the best chance for Telluride to get a little snow.

The next system is more typical of this time of year, and it will arrive on Sunday, departing Monday. It will have little to no effect on the weather across the lower elevations, but it will bring colder air and some wind.

Purgatory will get a skiff of snow out of that one. Telluride, Ouray, and Red Mountain will get the most snow, but it still won’t be a lot.

The best chance of meaningful snow showing up in the models is around November 5th.

At the moment, Halloween looks clear and cold for the lower elevations, with maybe some flurries up north.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report