11/22/25 Saturday 4:30 am

I woke up feeling pretty good. Not sure why, but I will take it!

Just an observation, Wolf Creek has been getting sneaking snow this week, nearly 20 inches total. Hoping another 8 to 12 inches Sunday-Monday, but I will tackle amounts this afternoon.

As warned, this will be another low producer for the lower elevations. Be patient, its going to be ok.

Let’s do a first look at what I am calling Pattern Change 2.0 AKA “The Reinforcer”.

This week, a “dirty” ridge will try to pop back up, but it is weak (dirty) and will not be difficult to displace when the Reinforcer shows up a week or so from now.

I am just going to show you. First, let’s zoom out so you can see the reinforcements I am talking about.

Jumping ahead to Saturday, 11/29, here is the reference map. This is Arctic air moving into Montana.

Now I’ll put it in motion for the extended. Saturday, 11/29, through Saturday, December 6th.

Now we’ll zoom in for a Colorado view.

If this comes together… Well, you know. BTW, all of the operational models show a similar version of the Reinforcer.

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11/21/25 (Already) Friday 5 am

I guess I don’t have a lot to say about the storms so far: low producers, low impact. I have had 0.66 inches of rain this week. Wolf Creek is the only one counting inches at this point, with 16 inches so far this week.

Snow flurries this morning around the forecast area.  I saw them flying on the cams at Wolf Creek and Telluride.

Speaking of webcams, I am delighted that Purgatory is upgrading its snow stake. I have always tried to give them the benefit of the doubt; however, there are a whole lot of you who have questioned the veracity of their snow totals in the past, even to the point of carrying their own measuring devices and sending me pictures.

I would also say that the way they have approached their snow stake and historic totals added fuel to the fire in the past. Hopefully, this marks a new era of transparency that puts them on par with the other major resorts in the state when it comes to upgrades — and hopefully this does not turn into a “Local Radar” moment! You would be amazed at how many emails I still get about that.

The next storm is lining up and looks similar to the last two — boring! I should not complain and I am not going to for one reason… I am watching Pattern Change 2.0 (The Reinforcer) in the models, which looks like it could start affecting our weather Saturday night/Sunday (after Thanksgiving). Too early to discuss in detail, but knowing it is on the horizon is very helpful.

A quick look at the extended (46-day) model supports cool and wet conditions through December (at least).

The green and blue are not forecasted liquid equivalent totals. In this case, you are looking at the anomalies. The amounts of precipitation above/below average for the period.

By the way, does this look like a La Niña forecast to you? Nope, me neither, the negative anomalies in the NW really jump off the screen! It’s been a challenging week, but I will definitely get an update out by Saturday afternoon.

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11/19/25 Wednesday 1:30 pm

No Bueno with the lack of model consistency! I come bearing a low confidence forecast, unfortunately…

It is very much US vs Europe with the weather modelling. I am as patriotic as anyone, but Europe won the Meteorological Race a long time ago, so for this purpose only, I will rely on their guidance.

Here they are, in some cases, nearly opposite outputs.

GFS

European

German-My favorite run

Lil Canada-I call it that because this is an experimental model based upon the parent model.

Pretty good for a learner… Notsomuch

Forecast

I was tempted to take a pass. But, I have learned a lot about dealing with the cards I was dealt lately, sooo.

Lower elevations: Liquid precipitation totals should range from 0.35 to 0.70 inches. Rain may mix with snow in the morning.

Mid-Elevation areas. Liquid range of 0.4 to 1.00 inches. Rain will turn to snow, especially late, at or above 7,800. Below that, it may not accumulate.

Wolf Creek, Coal Bank 6 to 9 inches

Purgatory 4 to 7 inches

Silverton and Telluride 3 to 5 inches,

See ya tomorrow.

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11/19/25 Wednesday 3:30 am

Overall, the European model is still leading the other models with heavier precipitation for tomorrow’s storm. However, it is really trying to pinpoint some bullseyes — mainly in the eastern portions of our forecast area, think from Bayfield to Wolf Creek.

Historically, this suggests that some areas will do better than others, likely in the lower elevations. It does not mean that the particular area it is highlighting at the moment will be the beneficiary. At the moment, the technicals show similar snow levels to Sunday, even though the map coverage indicates a colder storm.

In other words, I have seen this in the European model before: 50% of the time, it is mostly correct; the other 50% of the time, the heavier precipitation falls from Mancos to Durango because the terrain is more favorable. The German model looks very interesting. The US and Canadian models are not very enthusiastic, showing precipitation outputs similar to the Sunday dud. I would really like to see the Canadian model more closely align with the European and German models in its next run.

To further complicate issues, the European model is brewing up another storm for Sunday. Looking further out, models are focusing on the weekend immediately after Thanksgiving for a big storm.

No matter how you cut it, it’s positive news. I will post some updated model runs by noon and attempt a forecast by this afternoon.

Another borderline Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the mountains; however, it excludes the NW San Juans and Telluride. We will see. By the way, did you see Wolf Creek ended up with 9 inches all said and done?

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11/18/25 Tuesday 3 am

The good thing about a stormy pattern is that if the first storm does not work out as well as you hoped, the next one will arrive soon.

Yesterday, I mentioned that Sunday night’s storm was basically over before it started. Unless you were near the Utah border, you were likely disappointed with the results. The energy moved out quickly; in its wake, the higher elevations were left with instability and a light flow, which kept light snowfall throughout the day.

NEXT

Current regional radar and surface maps.

WU–Not an acronym, Used to be known as Wunderground

Here is how the latest European model run says it should look like over there at 5 am.

This indicates that the model is performing well in terms of track timing and placement. Incidentally, every model I looked at this morning shows a similar initialization. That’s all good news.

So let’s put the maps in motion and take a ride on the European model this morning. Here are the next 24 hours.

What we see are increasingly unsettled conditions. Have you ever wondered what it means when a forecaster says “unsettled conditions”? It means that they are not exactly sure what to expect. A chance of a light shower or light snow, with a mix of clouds and sunshine, and a cool, damp atmosphere.

So, not much is expected today, which means we have at least 24 hours where the timing, track, and intensity of the storm can change.

Let’s jump back on that model starting Wednesday at 5:00 a.m. and ending Friday night. Here is where we see divergence among the models.

The European currently shows the heaviest precipitation arriving early Thursday morning through Thursday night, perhaps lingering on and off throughout the day on Friday.

This model appears to be the best of the bunch so far.  I am reluctant to post totals, but it will serve as a good benchmark to compare with what we see 24 hours from now.

Yes, I see the donut. If you are new, a donut is an area of lower precipitation surrounded by areas of higher precipitation all around it.

In this case, it’s a Durango donut. It is not as common as long-time followers think. From a meteorological standpoint, it is nearly impossible. However, the term is more often used anytime the forecast area gets missed. I am not worried about it yet; we’ll see in 24 hours.

The other models are quite different, so I will not post them for now.

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11/17/24 Monday 3 am

It is still snowing in most mountain locations. Until I can get a clear view of what happened up there, there is no reason to do a wrap-up.

Meanwhile, in the lower and southern mid-elevation areas it does look like we got WTI’d. Ah, yes, the WTI. What’s that, you ask? WTI=Was That It?

I named this phenomenon after all the emails I get when this happens. It is usually more easily identifiable in the winter, but it appears that is precisely what happened with our rain yesterday afternoon.

It is a period of snow that rapidly intensifies as the storm energy approaches, usually accompanied by blizzard-like snow squalls. For about 30 to 60 minutes, everyone is completely elated. Then the energy moves east and the precipitation comes to an abrupt end. Then my inbox fills up with numerous emails asking the same thing: “Was that it?” “Is it over?”

Models are showing snow gradually ending today. Then, showery conditions returning Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest model runs are back to advertising a larger, more impactful (colder) storm arriving in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.

On the one hand, I don’t want to raise everyone’s hopes unnecessarily, but as I mentioned over the last week, I want everyone to be aware of the potential event that may impact their travel plans. Hopefully, we can pin it down with more confidence over the next 36 hours.

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11/16/25 Sunday 2:00 pm

Heavier precipitation is expected to arrive between now and 6:00 p.m. The system is finally moving at a pretty good clip; hopefully, it slows down a bit or it could mess up my forecast.

Speaking of that. Below 7,000 feet, I expect 0.35 to 0.60 inches of rain tonight and tomorrow. From 7,000 feet to 8000 feet, I expect total liquid precipitation between 0.50 and 0.75 inches of liquid precip. There will likely be some anomalies, with up to 1.00 inches or more of liquid equivalent precipitation. By tomorrow morning, there could be a rain-snow mix or light snow between 7,500 and 8,000 feet.

For snowfall, 4 to 6 inches for Telluride on the mountain, a little less in town. However, if the system tracks more north than east, all bets are off, and a foot would be possible. Of course, that would be at the expense of other areas, so hopefully we can share this system.

Assuming that does not happen, I expect 7 to 11 inches for Wolf Creek, Coal Bank, Molas, and Lizard Head passes.

Purgatory and Red Mountain Pass: 5 to 9 inches. 4 to 8 inches for the residential areas around Purg.

Silverton 3 to 6 inches.

Models are still trying to wrap their microchips around the next storm. I will be up early, duh. Reach out tonight if you’re experiencing any form of precipitation!

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11/16/25 Sunday 3:30 am

Before I forget, when I say WC, I am referring to Wolf Creek. I received numerous emails inquiring about this. Sorry, I will type it out going forward.

Another question I have been getting for a while:

What are my thoughts on AI and weather forecasting?

I think that eventually, Quantum Computing will have a more significant impact when used in conjunction with AI. I believe that NOAA and other World Government Meteorological Departments will always chase the technology and always be behind the curve. Just as AI influences every other aspect of our lives, what we have access to will always be outdated. Also, bad data in can lead to horrible data output. Always remember that.

Speaking of bad data, the US GFS model seems to be changing every 6 hours regarding the midweek storm, so I am still going to focus on today’s storm.

Here is the latest surface map and radar showing the apparent location of the storm, which is now coming onshore in California.

I say apparent because you really cannot be 100% sure of the location. I trust WU based up the sheer amount of data they use to plot. However, they do reset to NWS data as it is reported hourly.

What I see here is a storm that is going to take its time. Eventually, as high pressure is forced to our east, the clockwise flow around the high pressure should spin the low north towards our forecast area.

Until then, moisture will continue to move into our area. Precipitation will begin in the higher elevations before spreading to the lower elevations. Heavier precipitation may not reach the area until after 5 pm.

The speed of the system will impact the total precipitation we receive. Remember, this is not a huge storm for us.

NWS has already issued a low-end advisory for 4 to 8 inches above 9,000 feet despite forecasting below the minimum range to qualify for an advisory. I get it: First storm of the season, blah blah blah.

I am looking forward to seeing the morning model runs. I tend not to trust the off-hour model runs. Additionally, models perform significantly better when a system is on land.

I should have that afternoon update out between noon and three pm.

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11/15/25 Saturday 3:30 am

Sorry about yesterday. Things went a little better in the first half of the day, which helped. She has an appointment in December, unusually enough, on Christmas Eve morning. I will hold off on any updates on her condition until that time.

Sunday is still on, as a reminder, Sunday was the most likely and least impactful of all the potential storms that the models have been highlighting.

With that being said, I will concentrate on one storm at a time until the models determine the timing and track of the mid-week storm.

Models bounce back and forth from run to run, with a miss to the south, or the perfect storm. As of last night, they are back on for mid to late week, after several runs showing a New Mexico storm.

The variables that could affect Sunday night’s storm are mainly timing. Let’s face it, how many times over the years have we seen a storm that is supposed to arrive at a particular time be delayed 12-18 hours? Many nights, we have all peered out the window in the middle of the night, expecting to see precipitation, but it had not yet reached us. I don’t get nearly as many “it missed us again” emails as I used to when a storm is late, so I think we are getting used to it.

That can work in our favor at times. If the storm reaches us during the warmest hours of the day, that is not a good thing for snow lovers. Conversely, if it arrives later in the evening/night, it can enhance precipitation rates and lower snow levels.

As I have been saying, Sunday’s storm is a warmer core storm. I expect snow levels (depending on arrival time) to start at around 9,500 feet and then drop to around 8,000 feet. At the moment, I am expecting only rain below 6,900 feet or so. A mix may be possible between 7,000 and 8,000; we’ll see.

Again, timing can affect this. Hopefully, I will be able to arrive at a realistic snowfall forecast for those affected by tomorrow, midday.

The latest runs show 0.30 to 0.65 inches of rain for the lower elevations, with 0.50 to 1.1 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation for the mid- and higher-elevations. Snowfall ranges from 4 to 12 inches in the mountains. That’s quite a spread; hopefully, it will tighten up over the next 24 to 30 hours.

Models show continued unsettled  (colder and wetter than average) weather through the end of November, with a chance for another colder winter storm between the 25th and 30th.

I will have detailed maps with my forecast, which should be out between noon and 2 pm Sunday.

I have had several questions about La Niña. I receive the monthly CPC diagnostic ENSO discussions, the latest of which was yesterday. It is a stretch to argue La Nina event when the heart of winter shows neutral conditions (-.5 to +.5), which historically defines neutral ENSO. However, “Experts Predict A Neutral Winter” does not receive nearly as many clicks as “La Nina Conditions Expected To Dominate Our Winter, Experts Say.” So keep that in mind.

Historically, neutral conditions have delivered the most snow for Purg, Durango, Pagosa, WC, Cortez, and Mancos.

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11/14/25 Friday 4:30 am

A challenging day yesterday gave way to a bad night and a terrible morning for us. I may or may not be able to provide a proper update today, but we have time; things still look on track for Sunday.

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