Wednesday Update-A Blip In The Boring

10/22/25 Wednesday 4 am

Most of you know, if you don’t hear from me, then there is either A) very little to talk about. Or B)Were having some struggles at home. The last 7 days have been one of the worst stretches, if not the worst stretch, Susan has gone through. So in this case, both were true.

Calm, typical fall weather for one more day, before a So Cal low (pressure system) approaches overnight into Thursday morning. 558 thickness level translates to snow at or above 9,500 feet for most of the day. This could lead to some minor annoyances in travel over the passes. For now, I would not have too many concerns if I were navigating passes on Thursday throughout the day and Friday morning.

The precipitation initially will favor the southern and central portions of the forecast area (like last time, but much less). That being said, widespread totals across the southern portions of the forecast area show 0.40 to 1.2 inches of rain.

Snow totals will not translate well with that because the further north you head, the less precipitation is expected. Models indicate 1 to 5 inches for the 550 corridor. Late Thursday, the flow flips to the northwest, so that will be the best chance for Telluride to get a little snow.

The next system is more typical of this time of year, and it will arrive on Sunday, departing Monday. It will have little to no effect on the weather across the lower elevations, but it will bring colder air and some wind.

Purgatory will get a skiff of snow out of that one. Telluride, Ouray, and Red Mountain will get the most snow, but it still won’t be a lot.

The best chance of meaningful snow showing up in the models is around November 5th.

At the moment, Halloween looks clear and cold for the lower elevations, with maybe some flurries up north.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Wednesday Update

10/15/25 Wednesday 5:30 am

It happened again. Yesterday, I finished the afternoon update early, but I was waiting on one last piece of data before posting. Woke up at two this morning, remembered I never hit the “post” button.

Oh well. I think we’re kinda “over it” with this pattern anyway—countless reports of 8 to 9 inch totals between the two events. Even a couple of double-digit totals were reported!

There were quite a few problems with the models this morning. Primarily, it was supposed to be raining most of the overnight hours. The LOTDW model does not confirm that. Often, this is the most correct model- LOTDW (look out the damn window) model.

As I look at the radar. I see a line of showers from Cedar City, north to SLC. Are those our showers? According to the NWS, there should be a retrograding event, drawing showers west across Northern New Mexico that will rotate into SW Colorado… HMMM, you mean these??

Seems like a bit of a stretch…

Back to those showers in Utah, will they make it here? This time of year, low-pressure systems typically rotate NE as soon as they reach Eastern Utah and miss us. Too bad, because snow levels will likely be at or above 7k with this one.

It is very rare for low pressure to stay far enough south to affect us before the last 10 days of October. Halloween storm, anyone? I’m not predicting that at the moment; I’m just saying it is more likely at that time.

So, assuming the showers are just late getting started, the model precipitation amounts show 0.40 to 1.6 inches of precipitation possible today, with a better chance of windy conditions and thunderstorms.

I have very little confidence in the forecast and model runs today (if you could not tell). Either way, it will be over this evening (if not sooner). Then, we will get a few to several days of dry weather.

Precipitation is not done for the month, though…

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Tuesday Morning

10/14/25 Tuesday 5:30 am

Since my last post, I got another 1.31 inches, bringing yesterday’s total to 2.41 inches. When I woke up at 4 am, .31 had accumulated overnight. Moderate to heavy rain in the last 90 minutes has boosted today’s total to 1.39 inches. So 3.8 so far, for the Raymond event.

To say model guidance is fairly unreliable right now is an understatement. The picture they paint shows that showers will decrease today, especially after 9 am. Then perhaps some clearing? Because models show convection and thunderstorms developing late today/evening, with showers continuing (though not as heavy) on and off throughout the day on Wednesday.

The showers will finally clear out on Thursday as the west coast storm finally makes its way into Utah, Northern Colorado, and Wyoming. Colorado’s Northern and Central mountains will see their first meaningful snowfall over the next couple of days.

It is starting to look like we may get a few days of drying out (no promises, wet likes to stay wet).  We will see. I will post again later today.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Monday Afternoon Update

10/13/25 Monday 3:30 pm

So, nobody really knows what the heck is going. The west coast storm is taking its time. We got 1.10 so far today at HQ, before the shut-off. It is unlikely we are done. When will it return? Not sure, but I do expect the showers to build in and return. Hoping we dodged a bullet. We’ll see.

Although I can’t guarantee it, the short-term US models, which aren’t very accurate, still predict 1.75 to 9.61 inches of rain. I doubt the high number.

 

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Monday Morning Update

10/13/25 Monday  5 am

Momentum has slowed slightly because the latest west coast trough is moving into California a little slower than anticipated. By the way, this West Coast system is expected to drop 1 to 3 feet of snow over the Sierra in and around Mammoth over the next couple of days!

The delay won’t last long, and Raymond’s remnants should quickly arrive in our area. UPDATE: Just started raining moderately at DWG HQ.

Forecasted precipitation totals are still very disturbing.

These totals are through early Thursday. The darkest red shades show 4 to 5 inches of rain.

I am not going to split hairs right now, but a case can be made for this lasting longer than Wednesday, OR ending earlier on Wednesday than expected. For now, I will wait for more data and keep everyone updated as time goes on.

Be careful out there. This is a very serious, and dangerous situation.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Sunday Afternoon Update

10/12/25 Sunday  5 pm.

It won’t take long to get showers going again. Overnight, the higher elevations will see showers, but I would not be surprised to see rain start in the lower elevation around 3 am, and get heavy between 6-9 am.

No changes from this morning. Totals are expected to be slightly lower than the Priscilla event; however, models show 2-6 inches potentially falling by the end of the day on Wednesday. Where exactly is the $trillion question

It’s going to be a very challenging couple of days for a lot of people out there… Lighter rain will continue into Wednesday, moving out by Thursday.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Sunday Update: Good Riddance Priscilla. Play Nice Raymond

10/12/25 6 am

Crazy…That’s all I got. I am so sorry to all of those who had to be evacuated. I can’t even imagine. Unfortunately, I do not have good news.

What we now know to be remnants from Raymond will be arriving overnight into Monday morning. The heaviest rain will fall on Monday and Tuesday. Showers will likely redevelop on Wednesday and Thursday (wet likes to stay wet). At the moment, those showers do not look nearly as heavy as they will be tomorrow and Tuesday.

Here are the maps. This is from late tonight through late Thursday.

Here are the potential totals for Monday/Tuesday. The Euro was nearly spot on this weekend. I have no reason to believe it won’t be this time.

Those darker shades of red indicate 3.5 to 4 inches by Tuesday night. A new Flood Watch goes into effect tomorrow morning.

I am not going to highlight totals at this time, but feel free to send them to me so I can grade the models. The situation for mid to late week is still evolving, so I am going to hold off for another 24 hours before discussing. As I said, it does not look as extreme. It also looks like colder air will be moving in by Friday.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Saturday Soaker

10/11/25 Saturday 3:30 am

It’s going to keep going today.

This is 3 am Saturday through midnight Monday morning. Does it look like it gets heavier after 6 am? That’s just a start. That’s an extended period of heavy rain.

But wait, that’s not all!

Look at the radar.

So far, the rain has been stratiform, consistent, and heavy at times, but without convection.

That yellow blob in Arizona is precisely that, convection. We usually need a peak at the sun for a couple of hours to generate convection. I do not expect that; however, I cannot rule out thunderstorms across the entire forecast area this afternoon and evening. That energy will likely rotate slowly into our area.

Obviously, we don’t have to worry about fire starts, but severe thunderstorms could bring increased precipitation rates, hail, and winds.

Tomorrow I will dip my toe into next week’s forecast pool. I am waiting another 24 hours because I may have to change precipitation type later in the week.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Friday Morning: I Have Never Seen This Before

10/10/25 Friday 3 am

In all of the years I have been attempting to forecast weather in Colorado (+/-26 years), I have never seen a one-week model precipitation forecast this high in our state.

Watching…

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report

Thursday PM Post: A Week Of Rain

Starting tonight, we could get rain every day (at some point) for the next seven or so days.

Here are the maps in motion starting at 6 pm tonight and continuing through the day on Sunday.

BOOM! Forecast through Sunday at 6 pm.

Short break Sunday night until late Monday, then it comes back.

Forecast for Grand Totals tonight through next Thursday.

Boom!

Off the scale… Those light brown shades are 7.0 inches! I may check in tomorrow, or I might sit back and enjoy the rain!

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.

Click here to submit a question or weather report