10/13/25 Monday  5 am

Momentum has slowed slightly because the latest west coast trough is moving into California a little slower than anticipated. By the way, this West Coast system is expected to drop 1 to 3 feet of snow over the Sierra in and around Mammoth over the next couple of days!

The delay won’t last long, and Raymond’s remnants should quickly arrive in our area. UPDATE: Just started raining moderately at DWG HQ.

Forecasted precipitation totals are still very disturbing.

These totals are through early Thursday. The darkest red shades show 4 to 5 inches of rain.

I am not going to split hairs right now, but a case can be made for this lasting longer than Wednesday, OR ending earlier on Wednesday than expected. For now, I will wait for more data and keep everyone updated as time goes on.

Be careful out there. This is a very serious, and dangerous situation.

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10/12/25 Sunday  5 pm.

It won’t take long to get showers going again. Overnight, the higher elevations will see showers, but I would not be surprised to see rain start in the lower elevation around 3 am, and get heavy between 6-9 am.

No changes from this morning. Totals are expected to be slightly lower than the Priscilla event; however, models show 2-6 inches potentially falling by the end of the day on Wednesday. Where exactly is the $trillion question

It’s going to be a very challenging couple of days for a lot of people out there… Lighter rain will continue into Wednesday, moving out by Thursday.

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10/12/25 6 am

Crazy…That’s all I got. I am so sorry to all of those who had to be evacuated. I can’t even imagine. Unfortunately, I do not have good news.

What we now know to be remnants from Raymond will be arriving overnight into Monday morning. The heaviest rain will fall on Monday and Tuesday. Showers will likely redevelop on Wednesday and Thursday (wet likes to stay wet). At the moment, those showers do not look nearly as heavy as they will be tomorrow and Tuesday.

Here are the maps. This is from late tonight through late Thursday.

Here are the potential totals for Monday/Tuesday. The Euro was nearly spot on this weekend. I have no reason to believe it won’t be this time.

Those darker shades of red indicate 3.5 to 4 inches by Tuesday night. A new Flood Watch goes into effect tomorrow morning.

I am not going to highlight totals at this time, but feel free to send them to me so I can grade the models. The situation for mid to late week is still evolving, so I am going to hold off for another 24 hours before discussing. As I said, it does not look as extreme. It also looks like colder air will be moving in by Friday.

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10/11/25 Saturday 3:30 am

It’s going to keep going today.

This is 3 am Saturday through midnight Monday morning. Does it look like it gets heavier after 6 am? That’s just a start. That’s an extended period of heavy rain.

But wait, that’s not all!

Look at the radar.

So far, the rain has been stratiform, consistent, and heavy at times, but without convection.

That yellow blob in Arizona is precisely that, convection. We usually need a peak at the sun for a couple of hours to generate convection. I do not expect that; however, I cannot rule out thunderstorms across the entire forecast area this afternoon and evening. That energy will likely rotate slowly into our area.

Obviously, we don’t have to worry about fire starts, but severe thunderstorms could bring increased precipitation rates, hail, and winds.

Tomorrow I will dip my toe into next week’s forecast pool. I am waiting another 24 hours because I may have to change precipitation type later in the week.

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10/10/25 Friday 3 am

In all of the years I have been attempting to forecast weather in Colorado (+/-26 years), I have never seen a one-week model precipitation forecast this high in our state.

Watching…

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Starting tonight, we could get rain every day (at some point) for the next seven or so days.

Here are the maps in motion starting at 6 pm tonight and continuing through the day on Sunday.

BOOM! Forecast through Sunday at 6 pm.

Short break Sunday night until late Monday, then it comes back.

Forecast for Grand Totals tonight through next Thursday.

Boom!

Off the scale… Those light brown shades are 7.0 inches! I may check in tomorrow, or I might sit back and enjoy the rain!

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10/9/25 Thursday 4:30 am

I’ve been banging on the “wet fall” drum since last month. So here we go! It looks like everyone is in the tub!

Flood Watch “at least through Saturday night” as they said in the discussion.

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
215 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

COZ017>023-UTZ022-025-027>029-100000-
/O.CON.KGJT.FA.A.0005.251010T0000Z-251012T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan
Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower
Dolores River-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin

-Southeast Utah-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand
Flat-La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Ridgway, Loghill Village, Telluride,
Mountain Village, Ouray, Lake City, Sawpit, Pagosa Springs,
Silverton, Rico, Nucla, Naturita, Norwood, Slick Rock, Cortez,
Mancos, Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio,

Blanding,Goulding, Bluff, Tselakai Dezza, Aneth, Montezuma Creek, Mexican
Hat, Halchita, White Mesa, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area,
Rainbow Bridge South Trailhead, Moab, Green River, Castle Valley,
Monticello, La Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and
Canyonlands National Park
215 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Colorado, including the following areas,
  Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Northwest
  San Juan Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, San Juan
  River Basin, Southwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre Plateau
  and Dallas Divide and Utah, including the following areas,
  Arches/Grand Flat, Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo
  Mountains, Southeast Utah and Tavaputs Plateau.

* WHEN...From this evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive rainfall may result in flooding of slot
  canyons, normally dry washes, slickrock areas, recent burn scars,
  urban areas, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Rockslides and mudslides are possible in the mountains.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Tropical moisture will stream northward into the region on
    Thursday, bringing widespread heavy rain and increasing the
    threat of flash flooding across portions of southeastern Utah
    and southwest Colorado. An increased risk of flash flooding
    will continue through at least Saturday evening across the
    watch area.

I am not going to get too deep into it just yet, but the moisture may depart on Sunday, only to return late Monday into Tuesday. This is not just a Friday-Saturday-only deal.

There were issues overnight with the model run only extending 77 hours of run time, which only gets us to 3 am Sunday. No worries for now. Models have been very consistent run to run, this is going to be a soaker!!

Here is the precipitation forecast for the period through Sunday evening. This was the last full model run. This is for emphasis, to illustrate the potential danger this situation could pose.

Those darker reds West of Durango are in excess of 4 inches! I am not worried about snow through Sunday. Could it mix in the highest elevations? Sure, I suppose, but it is not a concern at this time.

I am doing an afternoon update today, hopefully Europe will fix their model before then!

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It’s going to be a good one! Currently, models indicate a surge of extra-tropical (Hurricane Priscilla) moisture arriving on Friday, which will boost moisture levels to 300-350% of the average for this time of year.

Expect a slight chance of afternoon showers on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Currently, the models are downplaying widespread showers. However, at the same time, they are front-loading some of that moisture, especially on Thursday. So that forecast may change.

Just in time for the weekend. Here are your WET maps in motion. This pulse is much stronger than last weekend’s.

This is late Thursday through late Sunday.

Models are already indicating the possibility of widespread rain (less convective, more stratiform) totals of 1.25 to 3.0+ inches.

As I mentioned, this is a warm system with tropical origins. Snow levels will be high. The system is expected to move out quickly on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Then we may have another system to talk about. One that involves more moisture late Monday and Tuesday, dropping temperatures!

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10/5/25 Sunday 7 am

I am going to be really honest, I am struggling with an extreme lack of Sunday Morning motivation, which will likely result in an inordinate amount of time on the couch.

Susan has an early Neuro appt tomorrow, so that is out as well. So, I will aim for Tuesday; there should be nothing to discuss before then. I am still planning on wet weather returning late in the week!

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10/4/25 Saturday 6:30 am

For the record, I was up early. Every time I am about to give up on this system, I get massive thunder and lightning near my house, along with more rain. 0.54 inches so far. When in doubt, let it happen.

The most likely scenario going forward today is scattered on-again-off-again showers, gradually diminishing into the afternoon.

IF (big if), somehow, the sun comes out before noon, we could see scattered storms redevelop in the afternoon.

Tomorrow will be a beautiful fall day, and Monday as well. Tomorrow, I will post a more detailed update on the extended (wet) outlook from late this week through mid-month.

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