1/15/23 Sunday 6:30 pm
I just got this. Wanted to share as soon as possible, hopefully, no surprise to anyone.
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1/15/23 Sunday 4:30 pm
This has been a very productive storm, especially in the mid and lower elevations!
As is always the case there are some questions as to whether or not the front has passed. WU shows the front in Utah and WPC shows it passed us in south-central Colorado. Regardless, there is at least one short wave trough upstream that may or may not trigger a few more snow showers tonight and tomorrow.
We will have a very short break by late Monday morning before things pick up again Monday afternoon/evening, this next one will take us into Wednesday. Some of the models are still showing this next storm to be equally potent, others are drifting it slightly north. Either way, more snow for everyone, and a whole new round of Winter Storm Watches will be issued by tomorrow morning.
I have seen some impressive totals coming in by email. Do me a favor, keep track of your totals, and let me know the final totals tomorrow morning. I can’t guarantee you will get any more tonight, but I have a good feeling most people will.
I am checking out for the night. To my neighborhood followers, we have had 17 inches so far with this storm which brings us up to 61.5 inches since December 27th.
My next update will be Monday morning, I will likely do one more after 11 am, then my snow forecast will be out later Monday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site! Enjoy and be safe.
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1/15/23 Sunday 8:45
Definitely a good start to the first system overnight. I measured 11 inches as of 8 am. I am getting several low elevation reports in the 5 to 7 inch range so far. So far the mid-elevations are outpacing the higher elevations, this is not unheard of with this type of setup.
Now the fun part, just sit back and watch (and occasionally remove) this is just a preview of the next couple+ of days! I enjoy getting the reports, but there are too many for me to keep track of cumulative totals, and I will be most interested in those!
I am not sure if I will post again today, it depends on what I see, but I definitely will on Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site! Enjoy and be safe.
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1/14/22 Saturday 2 pm
I hope everyone has been taking this upcoming storm cycle seriously. There will be very little time between the two systems to get the driveways, roads, highways, and passes cleaned up. Plan on travel delays, school closures, and pass closures. My other concern is power outages. If you live in vulnerable areas make sure you dig out flashlights, batteries etc.
There have been some changes to the Winter highlights for the first system. The amounts have increased in the Winter Storm Warnings.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
124 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
COZ022-023-151200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0001.230115T0600Z-230116T0000Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
124 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.
COZ019-151200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0001.230115T0000Z-230116T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
124 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 16
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. A DETAILED MAP OF THE
SNOWFALL CAN BE FOUND AT
COZ021-151200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0001.230115T0600Z-230116T0000Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, DOLORES, AND MANCOS
124 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS. EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS BELOW 6000 FEET. WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1058 AM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
COZ068-150200-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0001.230115T0000Z-230116T0600Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
1058 AM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
22 INCHES, HEAVIEST NEAR THE SUMMIT OF WOLF CREEK PASS. WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1
There were no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory
COZ018-151200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0003.230115T0000Z-230116T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
124 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
Everything looks really really good for this storm cycle. It is starting to look like the second system of the storm cycle (Monday night through Wednesday night/Thursday) will be nearly as potent as this first system which begins tonight! Tonight through Thursday the snow totals should be higher in the lower elevations than the cumulative snow totals for the entire season.
Here are my forecasts through 5 pm Monday.
Aztec: Up to 3 inches
Cortez and Ouray, Marvel: 4 to 6 inches
Telluride, Mancos. Ignacio: 6 to 10 inches
Durango, Bayfield: 8 to 12 inches
Mid-elevation areas up to 7,500 feet: 10 to 14 inches
Mid-elevation areas up to 8,000 feet: 12 to 16 inches
Purgatory, Mayday, Rico: 14 to 18 inches
Wolf Creek: 15 to 20 inches
I will check in briefly in the morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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1/14/23 Saturday 8 am
If you missed my early morning update there are Winter Storm Warnings issued for the entire forecast area. Big Storms On The Way–Winter Storm Warnings For The Entire Forecast Area
The biggest challenge continues to be when to stop counting the snow from the first system and start counting for the second system. The heaviest snow will fall tomorrow morning and during the day tomorrow. The Winter Storm Warnings stop counting at 5 pm on Sunday. The NWS Event Total Snowfall maps stop counting at 5 am Tuesday.
I am going to go a slightly different route and show the model totals through 5 pm Monday.
I have got my eye on one model in particular and its next run will factor in heavily to my forecast this afternoon. I never rely on one model, but when it comes to crunch time I think given its high-resolution the NBM blended model is the best model to share.
Keep in mind, when looking at the snowfall output parameter the models are at a default 10-1 ratio so adding an extra 20% at or above 9,000 feet is a good rule of thumb.
This is not my forecast, that will be out later today (before 2 pm).
Here is the snowfall through 5 pm Monday at a 10-1 output from the high-resolution NBM model.
Here is the total liquid precipitation map for the same period from the same model. Sometimes, people like to do the math themselves. The colors are easier to differentiate with the total liquid output parameter.
My next update will be out before kickoff. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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1/14/23 Saturday early update 3:30 am
I will cover the models in my normal morning update in a couple of hours but wanted to get out this information for the early risers, because it is rare that the entire forecast area is under a Winter Storm Warning. If you have been reading my latest updates none of this should come as a surprise.
Lower elevations
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
210 AM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
COZ022-023-150015-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0001.230115T0600Z-230116T0000Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
210 AM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS.
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY.
COZ021-150015-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0001.230115T0600Z-230116T0000Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, AND MANCOS
210 AM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS. EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS BELOW 6000 FEET.
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.
This is a bit of a bold call for Cortez, or at least the 6,000-foot level, we’ll see. If I could substitute Dolores for Cortez in the wording, I would.
COZ019-150015-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0001.230115T0000Z-230116T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
210 AM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
I am fully on board with this, noticeably absent is Wolf Creek Pass. Don’t get me started… Expect the same at Wolf Creek as is written above.
COZ018-150015-
/O.EXA.KGJT.WW.Y.0003.230115T0000Z-230116T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
210 AM MST SAT JAN 14 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM MST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS
AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
My next update will be out by 8 am. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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1/13/23 Friday 3 pm
I am still trying to put all of the pieces together for this upcoming storm cycle. The models show a noticeable decrease in precipitation sometime on Monday. It will probably stop in many areas in the lower and mid-elevations, but may not stop at all in the higher elevations before the snow picks back up on Tuesday through Wednesday.
The Euro and Canadian are showing additional advisory-level snow across the lower elevations on Tuesday. There is a chance some of the southern areas may get more snow than the higher elevation on Tuesday if everything comes together. The GFS is keeping that heavier precipitation band to the south of our forecast area.
I have found that the total precipitation forecasts for the entire storm cycle are usually more accurate than attempting to predict each wave of the cycle. That being said I am going to share the model forecasts from Saturday night through Monday, then Monday through Wednesday.
GFS through Monday
GFS Monday through Wednesday
GFS total–Saturday through Wednesday
Canadian through Monday
Canadian Monday through Wednesday
Canadian total–Saturday through Wednesday
European through Monday
European Monday through Wednesday
Notice the focus on the southeastern portions of the forecast area. I would not put a lot of faith into the specifics. The European model has favored the east over the west, or the west over the east before and it was wrong. It is usually more latitudinally correct than longitudinally when it is honing in on a heavier wave. Plus we are 4 days away from that period…
European total–Saturday through Wednesday
A Winter Weather Advisory was just issued for the higher elevations with 8-16 inches through Sunday evening. After reading the NWS forecast discussion, I think they are going to wait until tomorrow to upgrade the advisory to a warning. I also expect a Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory to be issued for the lower and mid-elevation areas tomorrow. This would likely begin at midnight Sunday morning through 5 pm Sunday.
My next update will be Saturday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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1/13/23 Friday 8 am
What appears to be a significant weather event is unfolding and it will begin to impact the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Heavy snow is expected as a series of storms hit our area between Saturday night and Wednesday night at least.
What I don’t know yet is the timing of each wave as it comes through. There are likely to be some lulls in between the systems in some areas, but I am not sure how long each lull will be. This is going to be a very difficult time to make travel plans.
The models are following their usual biases at this point with the lower-resolution models indicating the highest totals. Here are the forecast totals for total liquid precipitation in inches between Saturday night and late Wednesday. There are some models indicating additional snowfall from Thursday into Friday.
GFS
Canadian
NBM
European
I do expect preliminary Winter Storm Watches and or Winter Weather Advisories to be issued this afternoon or tomorrow morning at the very latest. My next update will be later this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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1/11/23 Wednesday 3:30 pm
― Winter Travel Alert ―US 550 Red Mountain Pass to close for winter maintenance operationsSouthwest Colorado — CDOT will perform winter maintenance operations on US 550 Red Mountain Pass between Silverton and Ouray tomorrow morning, Thurs., Jan. 12. Crews will close the highway at 6:30 a.m. with a lengthy closure expected for much of the morning. Regional travelers should plan ahead, allow for extra travel time, or arrive and drive through the closure points before 6:30 a.m. Northbound travelers will encounter a closed gate near Ironton Park (MP 87). Southbound travelers will encounter a closed gate just south of Ouray (MP 91). Do not attempt to bypass the closed gates. Visit COtrip.org for the latest information on road closures and conditions. Travelers should be aware that during the winter season, snow conditions may require maintenance work and safety closures at any time on many southwest Colorado highways. Be aware that extended closures may be necessary should unusual circumstances or conditions arise. |
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1/11/23 Wednesday 11:15 am
Just a quick model update on the new storm cycle set to begin later this weekend. Although it does not appear it will be as aggressive as the one that started on December 27th, it still could be a doozy.
Here are the latest models runs showing the total precipitation between late Saturday night/early Sunday through Thursday morning.
European
Canadian
GFS
Very interesting…
I will rest my eyes a bit tomorrow and return on Friday. I should have a better idea of how the timing unfolds with this upcoming cycle by then. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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