1/10/23 Tuesday

First of all, thank you all for the well wishes. Everything went fine yesterday. Now I am in a weird period where I have one good eye and one bad eye, so I am very excited about the second surgery on the 23rd!

Last night worked out about as expected, I was a little surprised that Wolf Creek did not report any snow. Mainly 3 to 4 inches fell in the other higher elevation locations.

Tonight a quick-moving storm will arrive and deliver snow throughout the forecast area. The models are not expecting this to be a big producer in the lower elevations. However, it will be impactful to the higher elevation locations, especially the passes. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued and will be in effect for 24 hours beginning at 6 pm.

COZ017>019-102145-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0002.230111T0100Z-230112T0100Z/  
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY,   
LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
338 AM MST TUE JAN 10 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS  
EVENING TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES  
  WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS  
  45 MPH ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHERE...UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE, NORTHWEST SAN   
  JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN MANY AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN  
  PICK UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING.   
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING   
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON   
  RIDGE TOPS.

Wolf Creek Pass is also under a Winter Weather Advisory for 8 to 12 inches.

Here are the latest forecast models for total precipitation from tonight through Wednesday night.

GFS

Canadian

European

German

WPC

550 passes, Purgatory, Wolf Creek: 8 to 12 inches. It’s very rare that I agree exactly with the NWS, but I guess I see the same thing they are seeing.

Mayday, Rico, Silverton, Telluride: 6 to 10 inches

Upper Forest Lakes, Upper Durango Hills, Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Hill:  4 to 7 inches

All other mid-elevation areas:  3 to 5 inches

Durango, Bayfield, Mancos:  1 to 3 inches

Cortez:  Up to 2 inches

After the storm clears out tomorrow night, a ridge will move over us for a couple of days before the next storm cycle starts very late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Several waves should come in Sunday through Wednesday

My next update will be out sometime on Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/9/23 Monday 5:30 am

I expect very little accumulation tonight into Tuesday morning. Maybe a couple of inches in the higher elevations and a dusting or drizzle in the lower elevations by Tuesday. The models are slowing down the onset of precipitation with the main system until after midnight Wednesday morning. The precipitation should wind down by late Wednesday/early Thursday.

I am pretty confident I will be able to post Tuesday afternoon well before the heavier precipitation arrives. Until then, here are the latest precipitation forecast models.

GFS

Canadian

European

NBM

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1/8/23 Sunday 3 pm

Two systems will move across the area between Monday night and Wednesday night. It will seem like one system because there will be very little if any break between the two. The bigger of the two will move in Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

Here are the latest forecast models for total liquid precipitation. The precipitation with the first system Monday night into Tuesday may be mixed precipitation in some of the lower elevation areas. These model runs show the total liquid precipitation for the two systems.

European

GFS

Canadian

German

NBM

I am going to be getting up very early tomorrow and I will post before I go to my surgery. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/8/23 Sunday 8 am

I hope everyone is enjoying the short break and the sunshine. As the first, smaller system approaches the area, things will change late Monday night. Initially, I was not expecting much if anything out of this system but the numbers are trending up.

This first system will mainly deliver snow to the higher elevation areas. It will stick around until Tuesday afternoon or so. The next system will be hot on its heels and will arrive late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. It will deliver snow throughout the entire forecast area. There may be some areas in the higher elevations that will experience very little if any break between the two systems. Because of this, it will be easier (and likely more accurate) to not attempt to forecast each system individually but to lump them together as one event from late Monday to late Wednesday.

The model agreement is horribly inconclusive so far. Hopefully, it will get cleaned up over the next 24 hours. The lower-resolution models seem to be deepening the second system as it approaches the forecast area and tapping into better moisture. The higher-resolution models seem to be rushing the system through the forecast area and deepening it after it passes.

Regardless of how this works out, the models are honing in on a third system which will be even more impactful to the entire forecast area about a week from today!

Here are the latest precipitation forecasts from the models.

Canadian

European

NBM

German

This afternoon I will post a quick model update. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/7/23 Saturday 6:20 am

The last little storm did basically what was expected of it. I had a little over 2 1/2 inches fall, Purgatory had 6 total and Wolf Creek ended up with 7 inches. I am not sure what Telluride ended up with.  Anyway, the system performed as expected.

We have a couple of boring days, then we may get just a glancing blow of snow up north on Monday night before a slightly better-organized system comes through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The precipitation totals are trending up slightly in the higher elevations with the lower elevation totals staying below advisory levels, for now. We’ll see if that changes.

Attention then turns to the possibility of a more impactful storm late next weekend (1/15) but it is too early to be talking about that one, just something to keep in the back of your mind for now.

I will talk more about the Wednesday storm tomorrow. I have early eye surgery on Monday morning and will not be able to post or check my email on Monday. I hope and expect to be able to post on Tuesday afternoon.

My next update will be on Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/5/23 Thursday 12 pm

Light snow will develop late tonight into very early Friday morning. The snow should stop by Friday afternoon in the lower and mid-elevations and stop later Friday night on the passes.

We will begin a drier period beginning this weekend that could take us to the middle(-ish) of next week. Right now it appears that the barrage of storms that are lined up to hit Northern California will not follow a favorable track to dump on us– the models show some snow next week but nothing big. That could change but right now that’s all I know.

For snow totals, I expect a dusting to 3 inches in the lower elevations. 2 to 5 inches in the middle elevations, and 3 to 6 inches in the higher elevations.

My next update will be on Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/4/23 Wednesday 7:45 am

Wolf Creek nearly caught up with Purgatory’s storm cycle total after another 11 inches of snow fell in the last 24 hours. The last 8-9 days have been very impressive. Very light on-and-off snow showers will persist in the highest elevations today before a quick-moving ridge builds in on Thursday. Overnight, Thursday into Friday morning a very quick-moving storm will hit the area bringing just a couple to a few inches of snow across the forecast area. It should dry out over the weekend and models are not in agreement about what happens next week.

I should have a better handle on Friday’s little storm tomorrow. Let’s take a look at the local snowpack!

For those of you new to reading this chart, people get confused with “Today’s Median” and “Median Peak” which are the two numbers on the furthest right side of the chart. The Basin Index (%) refers to the average of all of the measuring sites on the chart.

Using Vallecito as an example, they are at 132% of the average for this date.  The peak date for their snowpack is usually Apr 5th and they are currently at 55% of the average for the season. In other words, if no more precipitation fell between now and April 5th, then Vallecito would finish at 55% of the average snowpack for the season.

For the entire basin to already be at an average of 51% of the seasonal average (median peak) by January 3rd is great!

I will talk more about Friday’s storm tomorrow in my Thursday afternoon update.  Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/3/23 Tuesday 7:45 am

Sometimes, leftovers are as fun as the original storm that left them behind! The difficult thing about them is the models don’t always do a great job of forecasting the snow totals. It is still snowing at my house after an additional 7 inches fell since early Monday evening. Purgatory got 9 additional inches overnight after 5 inches fell during the day for a total of 14 inches in the last 24 hours.

Yesterday a shortwave trough (leftover #1) moved slowly through the area during the afternoon and last night. Overnight, a second shortwave trough (leftover #2) moved into the area and is slowly moving east.

All of the models show snow continuing across the area, once again favoring western portions of the forecast area.

On Wednesday, we should get a break, until Thursday night/Friday morning when another quick-moving system moves across the area. At the moment I do not expect significant accumulations with the Friday storm.

My next update will be on Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/2/23 Monday 6:30 pm

 

OOOSHKAA I am tired, going to enjoy a little dinner and Monday Night Football. The leftovers continue, we will see how the high-ratio snow piles up. Here is the latest from CDOT.

Mon., Jan. 2, 2023 4 p.m.

—SW COLORADO ROAD UPDATE— US 550 Red Mountain Pass to remain closed All other southwest Colorado passes are currently open after winter maintenance work completed A front end loader pushes snow that came down from a triggered slide on US 550 south of Silverton. US 550 north of Durango  US 550 Red Mountain Pass, between Silverton and Ouray, will remain closed through the night due to high avalanche risk of natural slides hitting the highway. Crews have been working on the pass today and are scheduled to continue their winter maintenance efforts first thing tomorrow morning. There is no estimated time for opening Red Mountain Pass. Winter maintenance work was also performed on US 550 Coal Bank and Molas passes today. Crews worked from 6 a.m. to 4 p.m. to open the highway south of Silverton. The team cleared a significant amount of snow and debris from several sections of the roadway along the entire US 550 mountain corridor. A CDOT maintenance crew member reaches up to show the height of a 12 ft. slide. One of several that were triggered on the US 550 mountain corridor (Red Mountain, Molas and Coal Bank passes). US 160 Wolf Creek Pass east of Pagosa Springs – OPEN  US 160 Wolf Creek Pass was closed overnight due to adverse weather and high avalanche danger. While the pass was closed, crews performed early morning winter maintenance operations. The roadway was cleared of snow and debris and then reopened by 8:30 a.m.  A CDOT equipment operator uses a snowblower to widen the highway on US 160 Wolf Creek Pass, east of Pagosa Springs. CO 145 Lizard Head Pass south of Telluride – OPEN  CDOT performed winter maintenance operations on CO 145 Lizard Head Pass today from 6:30 a.m. to 1:15 p.m. Crews addressed several slide paths along the corridor from Rico to Ophir. ********** Some mountain highways are still experiencing adverse weather and high avalanche danger. Travelers should be aware that additional maintenance work and safety closures may be implemented on many southwest Colorado highways over the next few days. Visit cotrip.org for the latest information on road closures and conditions.

 

My next Update will be on Tuesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/2/23 Monday 1 pm

Between snow removal and storm monitoring, I am wiped out so I am going to be pretty brief.

As expected the snow has picked back up at the ski areas this afternoon. According to the models, the snow should become widespread throughout the forecast area later this afternoon and evening, 1 to 4 inches are possible by late tomorrow morning with a few upside surprises likely. The models are favoring the higher elevations as well as the western portions of the forecast area. Rico to Trout Lake, Cortez and Dolores may see some action out of this. That being said, leftovers are difficult to forecast so let’s just leave it as a “few upside surprises are possible”.

Speaking of Rico and Trout Lake, expect periodic closures for mitigation around Trout Lake and Lizard Head this afternoon. Remember, clean-up is a lengthy process and all passes could be subject to closure at any time. I do my best to pass on information as I get it, but be prepared for anything if you are planning on traveling over the passes today and tomorrow.

My next Update will be on Tuesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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