Tag: Pagosa Springs Flood

Friday Morning: From Denial To Flood Watch: NWS GJT Plays Catch-Up On Incoming Surge (Again)

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26  Friday 4:00 am

The last two days weve heard this:

“Chances for river flooding remains low at this point, as these totals will be spread
over an almost 48 hour period.”  “River flooding continues to look unlikely
at these values spread over 48 hours.”   “River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to rainfall on saturated soils are expected.”  “While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated hillsides in the region.”

Now This:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

COZ019-021>023-UTZ022-028-029-302100-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.A.0011.261101T1200Z-261102T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-
Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-La Sal and
Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico, Cortez,
Mancos, Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding,
Oljato-Monument Valley, Goulding, Bluff, Tselakai Dezza, Aneth,
Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White Mesa, Monticello, La
Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and Canyonlands National
Park
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and southeast
  Utah, including the following areas, Canyonlands/Natural Bridges,
  La Sal and Abajo Mountains and Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recently burned areas, and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

Things are changing quickly while the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) plays catch up with their river peak and flow forecasts. I will have a more detailed update out soon!

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Thursday Midday Latest & Model Comparisons

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26  Thursday

Quick Note: Models show the storm speeding up through the first half, with 0.30″-0.60″ of liquid precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

Conversely, they are slowing the Sunday system; it may be with us most of Monday.

I continue to see high snow levels of 10,000’+ until the last 6 to 10 hours of the storm. That will make for a difficult snow forecast for anyone trying to figure it out.

The latest from NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-067-083-113-UTC037-302100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday,
tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an
atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the
region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect,
initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce
impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend`s
historic rainfall.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is
expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across
southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000
feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a
growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated
hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris
flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes,
slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2
inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO.

This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a
strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to
capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and
weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and
residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain
abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Finally, at least an acknowledgment. But I have seen no models that show only 1-2 inches of rain. Grand Junction NWS is still downplaying the event, saying the rivers will flow below action stage.  Apparently they did not see this:

Keep in mind: bad data in, bad data out, so if they expect this peak with 1-2 inches of rain, what would double do?

I dug deep and found those model runs from before the last event. Overall, the GFS AI and Canadian are very similar to before- remember, those were the most accurate models last time. The similarity ends with the European. I will be watching that closely.

 

Here are some comparison model runs: current vs. last week.

Current GFS AI

Last week GFS AI

 

 

Current Canadian

Last week Canadian

Current European

Last week European

That’s all I have for now. If something changes before the morning, I will jump back on.

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Thursday Morning: Late Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26 Thursday 5 am

I need some time this morning to reevaluate what we went through at the last event, compare the model runs from before the event, and the delivery duration for total precipitation. So my update will be later today, not out of laziness, but because I’m genuinely concerned for our area.

When I see this, these were the two most accurate models last event.

And this

And then I read this from NWS:

 Deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and will increase the chances
  for impactful precipitation for southwest CO Sunday and
  Monday.

- River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to
  rainfall on saturated soils are expected.

Then I see this:

I have to be very careful here because my head is about to explode. All of these things cannot be true at once.

So I am forcing myself into a timeout study break to double-check everything. If the NWS thought process is that most of the high-elevation precipitation will be snow, therefore, “flooding seems unlikely”, then we have a whole other set of concerns, like 3+ to 5 feet of snow at Wolf Creek.

Yesterday, I said if the models were as high or higher than this afternoon’s precipitation totals, I would be pressing the panic button. I am there right now, but I need to catch my breath and spend some more time on this.

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Tuesday Afternoon: Starting To Come Together

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 12:30 pm

Up-to-the-minute changes (subject to more changes, of course)

No precipitation Friday. The first part of the event starts after midnight and before 9 am Saturday. Models depict very, very light precipitation Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this Saturday event doesn’t happen.

Early to mid-morning on Sunday, the moisture plume arrives in our forecast area, with heavy rain and sticky wet snow.

Precipitation continues all day; the snow level steadily drops in the afternoon as the cold front to our northwest filters in. If the models are correct, the snow levels could flirt with 8,000 feet Monday morning before the system moves out.

Here are the latest model runs; it might just be me, but all but one of them look a little more similar.

European

NBM

Euro AI

UKMET

GFS AI (crazy?

We will see what tomorrow brings.

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Saturday Night Thoughts: Thinking Of Ship Rock, NM

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 5:45 pm

I hate to turn people down for forecast area requests. If it is not an area I know thoroughly, I don’t pretend I have all the answers. Weather can be a big deal. When I get a question about a travel route, I want to give the best, most accurate, and helpful reply I can.

I don’t know much about New Mexico weather. I know about 85% of Colorado weather tendencies after 33 years of living here. I met my wife 33 years ago- no coincidence; I figured out this was the place for me.

So I get a number of requests for New Mexico coverage. I also get a lot of requests from South Fork, Alamosa, Center, etc. I have no idea how to help these people. If I had time to learn these areas, I would, but I am otherwise too consumed to put in the study work.

Jeff Gets Right To The Main Point Below (he allegedly promises)

A lot of disasters in the region the last couple of days. Pagosa, my goodness. Who is talking about Arboles over the last several days? Our county roads?

Pivot:

Shiprock, New Mexico: Currently, Not Receding Yet

All of the other hydrographs have dropped like a rock? Why? Most of it goes here, to Shiprock, just west of the confluence of everything coming from our forecast area and beyond.

So sending out your good vibes, whatever your choice, is a good idea tonight

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Saturday Update: Weekend Showers And Thunderstorms

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 am- 6:30 am

I haven’t addressed this in a while, but the time I put at the beginning of each post is when I sit down at my desk and start perusing the models. I am trying to get into the habit of putting the time I finish before I hit the publish button.

Overview:   Wet likes to stay wet… Showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and tomorrow, moving out of the area late Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall today.

This should give way to 4 or 5 days of temporarily dry weather while the storm track retreats north of our area.

Then, Friday night into Saturday, models are advertising another multi-day storm. I know. It’s becoming a familiar setup: a west coast low-pressure system combines with tropical moisture and gets funneled into our area. It’s too early to dig into this. I will need to see a couple more days of model runs before I have any confidence in the details

News?

I am not sure when this happened, but the local radar is working; at least in Durango, I noticed it last night. It is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. It picks up the activity below the Grand Junction/National Radar.

“La Plata Live Radar” (these radar screenshots were taken at 5:20 am)

BUT, you can’t rely on it 100%; it has a very limited range, so you need to check both local radar and the site’s Hi-Res Radar. These screenshots were taken at the same time (5:20 am)

“Hi-Res Radar”

To switch between the two, click the layers icon at the top left of the screen, right above the full-screen button. For the La Plata Live Radar, I like to switch to “Dark” mode; for Hi-Res, I leave it on “Satellite” mode.

Fingers crossed it works this well in the winter!

Current Weather

So far, the activity has been spotty, but when the first storm blew up over my neighborhood at 4 am, I got brief heavy rain that dropped 0.20″ in a couple of minutes. The rainfall rate briefly hit 3.57″ per hour.

Since then, I have had occasional on-and-off showers (here comes another one at 6:20 am). It appears the La Plata radar has a little longer lag time than the national radar.

Based upon this early activity, I fear the models are severely underforecasting this weekend event, and I am very concerned! I feel like I am doing a play-by-play here: this latest cell briefly measured rain intensity of 4.09″/hr.

I already have had 0.61″ up here in DW2. It’s going to be a long day!

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Friday Afternoon: Rain Returns By Saturday (Or Earlier)

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday Noon

I am not sure whether the River Forecast Center will update its forecast; the last update was at 10 a.m., and it hasn’t changed since earlier this morning. I would not be surprised if the new forecast comes out as soon as I finish this update and hit send.

Before I get started I need to fix something. I made a poorly thought-out remark about CDOT “dropping the ball in the big game”.

I want to clarify that I meant the bureaucracy in Denver and the statewide camera outage. I was not referring to the hard-working drivers, mechanics, dispatchers, and office staff at the various offices in SW Colorado. You all work in one of the most challenging regions in the United States, and we all are grateful for your work and dedication.

Today is tricky; most models show a lull this afternoon, with showers firing back up tonight, getting heavier toward Saturday morning, continuing through Saturday night and Sunday, then moving out by late Sunday night. This morning around 11 a.m., a storm fired up right over our neighborhood. It dropped a very quick 0.30″ and a lot of graupel. These peaks of the sun we are getting could trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That’s an if-then, not part of the forecast.

Models peg snow levels at 9,500 feet. Actual snow levels should vary between 9,000-10,000 feet based on time of day and intensity of snowfall. Either way, below pass level.

It looks like my nudge regarding a weekend flood watch worked.

1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and Utah,
  including the following areas, Arches/Grand Flat,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...Through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recent burn scars and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Flooding is imminent or ongoing with additional rounds of showers
    and thunderstorms expected through Saturday afternoon. Rivers and
    creeks may still experience high waters even after rainfall has
    ended.

Update 1:50 pm: This just came out

148 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON  
  
* WHAT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
  CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHEASTERN LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 400 PM MDT.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS IS ONGOING. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED  
  DUE TO FLOODING IMPACTS WITH ROAD AND CULVERT WASHOUTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 148 PM MDT, FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ONGOING. MINOR RAINFALL  
    AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  
  - THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING STREAMS  
    ANDDRAINAGES...  
    FLORIDA RIVER (my insertion not Florida along 240) SPRING CREEK, UTE CREEK, SALT CREEK AND DRY CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, OXFORD, TIFFANY AND ALLISON.  

Back to the models: there isn’t strong consensus on precipitation amounts.

On one hand, we have the European and Canadian models. On the other, we have the GFS AI and German ICON model.

European

Canadian

German

GFS AI

The glaring similarity is that they all show Wolf Creek getting 2 to 4 more inches of liquid precipitation.  In reality, it will be a mixed bag of very wet snow and, at times, higher-ratio snow. If it were December with this liquid-equivalent forecast, I would be forecasting 24 to 30 inches of snow up there.

So I need to let another model cycle run. For now, though, I think the European model will be most accurate.

I will be back if I need to be; otherwise, it will be in the morning.

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Friday Update: Weekend Weather

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26  Friday  6:30 am

I looked at some of the Pagosa totals; several locations got 4 to 6 inches of rain yesterday. The highest total I found was on the NE corner of town: 8.35 inches yesterday.

The only model that initialized well this morning was the Canadian model, go figure.

Because of this, I have very low confidence in today’s forecast. Surface maps show the trough and associated cold front to our west. Satellite tells a different story. It shows the trough has already moved past us, with slightly drier air invading our area.

This reprieve sounds good, but if it leads to clear skies, thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon. Most models don’t show the next system affecting us until this evening. Looking at multiple models, precipitation forecasts show another 1 to 3 inches of rain by Monday morning. As I said. I have low confidence in the overnight model runs.

Because we are in a lull, I am going to hold off on weekend weather details until the new model runs come out.  One thing I will be watching is snow levels, which will be dropping; early indications show 9,000 to 10,000 feet.

I will continue to monitor the river forecast today and this weekend. If anything changes between now and my noon update, I’ll post.

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Friday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday  4 am

Yesterday, in one of my posts, I wrote about the historic flood of 2011. I was off by 100 years. Muscle memory is the culprit. I have been typing 2000s for 26 years, so in my mind I meant 1911, but it came out as 2011. I only heard from a couple of people, so I appreciate them bringing it to my attention as much as I appreciate the thousands of people who overlooked it and knew what I meant.

I am tired and a little cranky. I will do my best to stay on track this morning. But come on CDOT. Nothing like dropping the ball during the big game.

“Sorry, our cameras are out so…”

Besides that, the closures tell the story.

From the CBRFC Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These are all the sites I need to follow up on, especially the red and yellow dots, but not exclusively.

For the last couple of days, I have been hearing from followers in and near Dolores. Like most long-term residents near rivers, streams, and creeks, they have local knowledge and experience dealing with flood threats.

I am not a hydro=guy, not at all. I hear from a few; one, who asked me not to reveal his name, said I was worried too much about flooding. He tried to tell me that saturated soils absorb precipitation better and that I shouldn’t worry about it. OK.

The last couple of months have exposed me to more heavy-rain threats than I have dealt with in the last 18 years. Now look: DOL (Dolores River at Dolores) and DRR (Dolores River at Rico) made the list today. Guess when the peak forecast time is: Now. Of course, why would anyone want any warning?

That’s the equivalent of the NWS in their forecast discussions saying, “Webcams show snow stakes in the San Juans with 15 inches of snow, so we are raising the forecast to 12-14 inches.” Don’t laugh, I have read that kind of stuff before. We call it “nowcasting”: “It’s raining outside, so we’re increasing our chances of rain to 80% today.”

(Stick with me; long-term followers know when I am tired because I stray off topic quickly, I call it going down the rabbit hole, it usually happens when Sus has a bad day or night)

Caffeine kicking in, RANT OVER (mostly).

NWS just issued a flood warning through 8 am…DUH

Animas Downtown: Currently running above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Noon today

Animas Below Pump Station: Currently running above June 2019 high. Peak forecast: Noon today.

San Juan River at Pagosa: Peak Forecast: Now. Pagosa and Wolf Creek are currently inaccessible because roads are closed.

Piedra at Arboles: Currently running above historical highs. Peak forecast: Now

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: Now

Mancos River at Mancos: Above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Now (another one that made the list while we were sleeping).

Animas River at Cedar Hill: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: 4 pm today. This has been on the list all along. 

Animas River at Silverton: Peak forecast now. The forecast peak height is lower than current observations, which are hitting historical levels. This is another location where locals know more than the experts.

Vallecito Creek: Peak Forecast: Now

Los Pinos above Vallecito: Peak forecast 4 hours ago

Thanks for your patience. I am going to regroup. I’ll do a short model update in a moment. Then a more in-depth model update around 1 pm. At the moment, the latest model runs show this next round will be less impactful, but 1 to 3 more inches are possible

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Thursday Early Evening

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 5:30 pm

River Forecast Center just time-stamped their earlier update. That means they released the same data as the previous post and labeled it the most recent. This makes me think we may not get an update until morning.  This also makes me think old precip data is still being fed in.

If you’re new, I tend to overprotect SW Colorado to the extent that it sounds like I am digging at NWS. That’s not the case, but if I strongly disagree, I will let everyone know, as I have.

The flood warning text made me believe they are going to focus on us rather than their less-affected coverage areas. We’ll see.

Here is an example of poor initialization. Show of hands: does anyone remember when I said the models for the last couple of months have underforecasted precipitation amounts?

Here’s last night’s through 6 pm tonight precip forecast:

Here is live reporting straight from the DWG Command Center:

7:06 pm

Here is the same model for precipitation from 6 pm tonight through Sunday night:

Surface maps once again differ by  100s of miles. I am checking out for a few hours.

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