Tag: Vallecito Reservoir

Friday Morning Update: Slight Concerns With Higher Totals

On By durangoweatherguy

11/13/26 Friday 4:30 am

I nailed my sleep last night, so I’m well rested and thinking more clearly this morning than yesterday.

Yesterday I talked about the RRFS model. I said that model has everything I need in its core to help me produce better forecasts in our highly varied terrain.

As far as I can see, past model runs from the RRFS were, and still are, producing more precipitation from the Saturday storm than the other models.

I am also seeing higher snow levels at the start of the storm than the other models. The RRFS shows rain up to the 9,500 ft level until about 8 am tomorrow.

I know what you’re thinking, so let me say that, at the moment, I see no evidence of widespread flooding. However, there is one area I am concerned about: Los Pinos below Vallecito. With the active (apparent) release still taking place, I hope there is no complacency going into tomorrow’s underforecasted storm.

As I said when we were dealing with the flooding, I am not a hydro guy; the residents along the rivers have helped better educate me on local nuances.

But here is the RRFS total liquid precipitation forecast accumulation by 8 am tomorrow.

Zoomed in

If you look at the NE portion of La Plata County, you can see bullseyes up to an inch above Vallecito in roughly 4-6 hours. If that is manageable, that is great. But I hope the right people aren’t counting on less precipitation, as most models have been showing all week. But as I said earlier, the other models seem to be increasing their totals run by run to catch up with the RRFS.

There is a bullseye in the La Plata as well, which should not affect the Animas, but it may raise the levels of its tributaries. However, the snow level will lower earlier over the La Platas than the NE part of the county.

So I am not sending out a panic call here, but I would say those living along these creeks should continue to be vigilant.

This is a perfect place for me to stop, as I am running a little behind schedule on the home front. My afternoon update will be out before 2 pm.

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Sunday Mid Morning Update: Second Batch And A Couple Scary Model Runs

On By durangoweatherguy

11/1/26  Sunday 9 am

These are all going to change. I just don’t know how often the river people will update today. I can’t imagine that, in the midst of historic flooding, they’d wait another 12 hours of the event’s heaviest rain to do another update.

Dolores: They didn’t update the data for lower or Rico locations. I did not leave you out intentionally.

 

 

 

These were the most accurate models with the last flood; These are their forecast totals from 5 am this morning to last drop and flake.

Canadian

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Sunday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy

 

11/1/26 Saturday

Current Radar

The heaviest rains are yet to come. Right now, they are aimed straight at us. I am not sure if that convective banding will make it up here; if it does, we could get some strong thunderstorms this afternoon

Nothing like watching it rain on the Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Telluride webcams and snow stakes.

Here are the latest hydrographs. This first batch will be for the most critical locations (Above Flood Stage). So if you don’t see the location you are looking for, it will be in the next batch.

Pagosa got worse, again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Sunday Early Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy

11/1/26 Sunday 3:30 am

I am waiting for the river people to update before I post the hydrographs. They updated at 10 pm last night with big changes. Things are looking much worse.

Animas at Durango (both sites) are forecast to be over action stage; I see nothing that will stop them from going higher.

Pagosa Springs is going to be devastated. The last flood 10 days ago hit 15.2 feet; it is now forecast to peak at 19.7 feet.

Mancos River is forecast to hit historic levels. La Plata River at Hesperus is forecast to hit historic levels. Dolores at Rico is forecast to peak within inches of where it was 10 days ago.

Animas at Silverton is forecast to equal the peak from 10 days ago. Animas at  Farmington is already forecast to hit within 7 inches of  10 days ago.

Rain started about 6 hours earlier than the models had forecast. So the River models were not only using lagging data last night; they were using incorrect data. As I said, when the new forecasts come out, I will post full details. I just wanted to give everyone an overview to read when they woke up.

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Saturday Overnight Update:

On By durangoweatherguy

10/31/26 Saturday 3:00 am

Concerns:

  • Models underforecasted precipitation totals last night and after midnight. Many areas got well over an inch. I have seen totals as high as 1.85″ already. The atmosphere is saturated, and so are our soils. This was supposed to be the weak wave; the heavy stuff should arrive tomorrow.
  • Overnight models have either stayed the same or are showing higher precipitation totals than yesterday.
  • NWS is still convinced snow levels will mitigate runoff and downstream danger. Looking at the webcams at Purg and Wolf Creek. and an underwhelming amount of snow has accumulated. Current temp at Wolf Creek is 33.  Models indicated overnight lows to be colder at these elevations than what is verifying.
  • As I said yesterday, snow levels will rise and stay high for most of this event, even if the cold front does not stall (like it usually does). Current indications show snow levels dropping below 10,000 feet late Sunday night (after the bulk of the precipitation has fallen).
  • The “River People” (CBRFC) have not updated their forecasts in nearly 24 hours- frustrating; hopefully they will be more on top of this tomorrow.
  • I will be posting often today; stay tuned, hopefully for better news, but I can’t find any right now.

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Wednesday Afternoon: Concerning-Every Model From This Morning Went Higher

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday Noon

The big story is in this post’s title. After the models increased totals overnight, they did it again this morning. Not only for Sunday and Monday, but now for Saturday too; of course, it was right after I said, “I would not be surprised if the Saturday precipitation did not happen.”

I am going to skip the detailed snow-level talk for now. Models are fluctuating those snow levels as they try to anticipate when the cold air will arrive versus the moisture. At a glance, rather than a deep dive, it looks like the snow levels will start high, in the 10,500 to 11,500 range, and drop below pass levels by late Sunday afternoon or evening.

If I were planning to go over the passes Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday morning, I would change my plans. You may not even have a choice, because they may pre-emptively close passes early before it gets bad.

OK, I have talked about the models; now let’s see them

European

European AI

Canadian-these bullseyes in the Canadian and the GFS AI below it are very concerning.

GFS AI “crazy totals”

We are still 4 days out, so I can’t share the shorter-term/higher-resolution models yet. I can add those to the mix tomorrow afternoon.

If, 24 hours from now, the models are this aggressive or higher. I will be pushing the panic button, as I did early on last week.

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Friday Afternoon: Rain Returns By Saturday (Or Earlier)

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday Noon

I am not sure whether the River Forecast Center will update its forecast; the last update was at 10 a.m., and it hasn’t changed since earlier this morning. I would not be surprised if the new forecast comes out as soon as I finish this update and hit send.

Before I get started I need to fix something. I made a poorly thought-out remark about CDOT “dropping the ball in the big game”.

I want to clarify that I meant the bureaucracy in Denver and the statewide camera outage. I was not referring to the hard-working drivers, mechanics, dispatchers, and office staff at the various offices in SW Colorado. You all work in one of the most challenging regions in the United States, and we all are grateful for your work and dedication.

Today is tricky; most models show a lull this afternoon, with showers firing back up tonight, getting heavier toward Saturday morning, continuing through Saturday night and Sunday, then moving out by late Sunday night. This morning around 11 a.m., a storm fired up right over our neighborhood. It dropped a very quick 0.30″ and a lot of graupel. These peaks of the sun we are getting could trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That’s an if-then, not part of the forecast.

Models peg snow levels at 9,500 feet. Actual snow levels should vary between 9,000-10,000 feet based on time of day and intensity of snowfall. Either way, below pass level.

It looks like my nudge regarding a weekend flood watch worked.

1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and Utah,
  including the following areas, Arches/Grand Flat,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...Through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recent burn scars and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Flooding is imminent or ongoing with additional rounds of showers
    and thunderstorms expected through Saturday afternoon. Rivers and
    creeks may still experience high waters even after rainfall has
    ended.

Update 1:50 pm: This just came out

148 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON  
  
* WHAT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
  CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHEASTERN LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 400 PM MDT.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS IS ONGOING. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED  
  DUE TO FLOODING IMPACTS WITH ROAD AND CULVERT WASHOUTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 148 PM MDT, FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ONGOING. MINOR RAINFALL  
    AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  
  - THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING STREAMS  
    ANDDRAINAGES...  
    FLORIDA RIVER (my insertion not Florida along 240) SPRING CREEK, UTE CREEK, SALT CREEK AND DRY CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, OXFORD, TIFFANY AND ALLISON.  

Back to the models: there isn’t strong consensus on precipitation amounts.

On one hand, we have the European and Canadian models. On the other, we have the GFS AI and German ICON model.

European

Canadian

German

GFS AI

The glaring similarity is that they all show Wolf Creek getting 2 to 4 more inches of liquid precipitation.  In reality, it will be a mixed bag of very wet snow and, at times, higher-ratio snow. If it were December with this liquid-equivalent forecast, I would be forecasting 24 to 30 inches of snow up there.

So I need to let another model cycle run. For now, though, I think the European model will be most accurate.

I will be back if I need to be; otherwise, it will be in the morning.

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Thursday Late Afternoon Flood Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3:30 pm

I should not do this but I am questioning the peak times, they have not changed, that tells me they might be chasing data, I will leave it at that.

Animas Durango: Above Action Stage, at Flood Stage 8ft (within 3/4 of an inch) with 9825 cfs, which well exceeds 2019 and would be ranked 7th in history

Animas at Durango Below Pump Plant: Forecast is higher than ever recorded since records were kept (18 years). If you missed my other updates big concerns for the lowest lying residents in River Oaks and folks living off of east of La Posta road. Weaselskin, Jack Rabbit etc.

San Juan at Pagosa Springs: YIKES

Vallecito Creek: We are creeping up on last year.

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: This exceeds both days in October last year on the provisional site.

 

Animas at Cedar Hill: Exceeding flood stage

La Plata River at State Line: 

La Plata River at Hesperus:

I would not be surprised at all if these NOAA River Forecast folks have a very long night. I will do my best to keep up. Have not covered an historic event in a while!

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Thursday Model Update: Flood Warning-Current Concerns

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 12:20 pm

OK, no break. As soon as I hit publish, this came out:

 

Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
1218 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by thunderstorms and excessive rainfall is
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until midnight MDT Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams
  continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1212 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
    heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
    the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen over
    the last 24 hours.
  - This includes but is not limited to the following streams...
    Vallecito Creek, La Plata River, Animas River and many creeks and
    tributaries that feed into these rivers.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, La Plata, Falfa, Hesperus, Bondad, Breen, Mayday, Kline,
    Marvel, Redmesa and Vallecito.

I am glad they did this, BUT the existing Flood Watch expires tomorrow at noon. Do you want to know what’s not going to expire? The rain!

The Flood Watch reads like flood danger will be over by noon tomorrow. You can’t just flip a switch and end it.  It looks like we may see a short lull tomorrow afternoon before the second part rolls in very late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. Here are the latest forecast totals between noon today and Monday morning.

The point is, the danger doesn’t go away when this flood watch does! I hope (nudge nudge) they issue an overlapping Flood Watch for the weekend, because ending this one without following up on the weekend sends the wrong message.

I am going to try to post another flood update after CBRFG updates their forecasts later today. At least the crucial ones.

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Thursday Flood Potential Update: Clarifications and Peak Forecasts

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday  9 am-12 pm

Junction Creek (and all other tributaries to the Animas River)

A couple of things that came up in an email. I have had questions regarding Junction Creek. What I am going to say is not exclusive to Junction Creek. Any creek or ditch draining into the Animas River is going to have the same situation.

With the Animas forecast peak, all tributaries will backwater, slowing drainage and potentially causing flooding in low-lying areas. This event will not even be a top 25 event for this location DRGC2(bridge near Powerhouse Science Center). You have likely seen pictures of the historic flooding when 25,000 cfs was recorded in October 1911.

When I, debatably, misspoke about the historic levels, I was referring to DGOC2 (the Animas below the Pump Plant) location. Technically, not a historic flow. But it did not exist many years ago. There are only 18 years of data at this newer location. So, technically, this will be a historic flow relative to the 18 years of data. I should have been clearer, but I want to make sure residents living south of town along the Animas know what to expect.

Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos Discrepancy

Last year, on October 11th, both locations ran much higher than the current forecast peak for this event. After some digging, I found out that, because these events fell outside of the water year, they are still “under review”, which means they will go into the CBRFC data next spring. I will be more careful talking about historic flows, now that I have that background knowledge. I will just include forecast, action stage, and flood stage

Update 10:40 am

The new data is out, and as I expected, everything is going higher…

I included the hydrograph on this one because this is the most dire situation in SW Colorado

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: I don’t know how or if this will affect travel. Forecast Peak is Friday at 6 am.

 

Animas-Durango DRGC2 (bridge near Science Center): Now is forecast to surpass Action Stage on Friday at Noon. This will affect all residents along tributaries to the Animas, as well as low-lying ground around Trimble and along 550 to Animas City. Forecast peak is Friday at noon.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 7.07 ft, 7464 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation: 5.10 ft, 3286 cfs (10/22/15Z)

Animas-Durango DGOC2- Below Pump Plant: No data for Action Stage or Flood Stage: Residents South of this location, particularly along La Posta Rd, should treat this as if action stage will be surpassed by Friday at 1 pm.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 8.51 ft, 7782 cfs (10/23/19Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation: 6.47 ft, 3602 cfs (10/22/16Z)

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above Action Stage, 3 inches below Flood Stage. Forecast peak  12:00 am Friday 

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 5.22 ft, 553 cfs (10/23/06Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation: 4.75 ft, 327 cfs (10/22/16Z)

Vallecito Creek: Forecast Peak 12:00 am Friday

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 4.80 ft, 3888 cfs (10/23/06Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation: 3.39 ft, 1492 cfs (10/22/17Z)

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: I double-checked with the provisional site. Last year the reading was 7.18 feet with 3400 CFS, FYI. Forecast Peak Friday 6 am.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 7.70 ft, 4195 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation: 5.72 ft, 1259 cfs (10/22/17Z)

Piedra at Arboles: I confirmed on the provisional site; this is forecast to be the 2nd highest level in 110 years.

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 8.18 ft, 9446 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation: 4.37 ft, 2572 cfs (10/22/17Z)
Historical Peak: 8370 cfs, 1970-09-06

Animas at Cedar Hill: Above Action Stage; this would take over the fifth-highest spot in history (I double-checked). Forecast peak Friday at 5 pm

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 9.75 ft, 8190 cfs (10/23/23Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation: 7.59 ft, 3505 cfs (10/22/17Z)

 La Plata River at CO/NM state line:

Forecast Date: 2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak: 8.00 ft, 884 cfs (10/23/17Z)
Critical Stages/Flows: Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation: 4.17 ft, 53 cfs (10/22/17Z)

 

I am going to take a short break, then I will do the weather model update.

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