2/17/23 Friday 7:20 am

With several days before the first flakes start falling, we are at the point where I look for similarities among the models to help better determine the timing track and intensity of the next storm.

At this point, it looks like a classic SW flow setup. The remnants of an Atmospheric River combine with a deep west coast trough resulting in heavy mountain snow which will likely result in totals of 2+ feet. Mid-elevation areas should receive 1-2 feet and lower elevations may see a mixed bag at or below 6,500 feet, turning to all snow with 6 to 12 inches of accumulations. The heaviest snow should fall early Wednesday through Thursday morning.

I am probably being too specific for 5 days away, but that is what I see now. What I am not sure about is what happens later on Thursday through Saturday morning. The GFS is showing its typical bias by moving the storm out of the area quickly on Thursday. The Euro takes its time and shows some leftovers lingering until Saturday morning. The Canadian model is closer to the Euro. It is too early to speculate which is correct, although in the past the Euro is usually a little better than the GFS in these situations.

Lastly, the models completely diverge after Saturday (2/25). The GFS brings in another big storm by Monday 2/27, and the Euro and Canadian show ridging.

So for now, I will concentrate on the storm coming in early next Wednesday, which could bring some leftovers through Saturday morning.

Here are the latest model runs showing the total liquid precipitation forecasts for Tuesday through Saturday period.

GFS

Canadian

European

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2/16/23 Thursday 8:00 am

The last storm cycle was compact, brief, and packed full of energy and moisture. If you liked that, wait until next week. Things are already starting to align for a bigger storm cycle beginning Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Before I get to that here are the totals I have been sent so far.

Purgatory 37″

Hermosa Cliffs Ranch 31.1″

Wolf Creek 29″

North Vallecito 24″

Lower Forest Lakes 18.1″

Silver Creek Ranch 19.5″

Rico 22″

Silverton 20.5″

Telluride 16″

CR 228@502 18.5″

CR 201 21″

DW II 15″

Long Hollow 15″

Rockwood 17.5″

Sundance Hills 10″

Durango 7.5″

Aloo Gobi 7″

South of Mancos 10″

The models are going to change before the next storm cycle begins, but there is general agreement among the models that the next storm cycle will begin late Tuesday or Wednesday and could last through the weekend. This could once again have major impacts on the resorts and passes. The entire forecast area should get anywhere from several inches to two to four feet, by the time it is done.

Again, as promising as this looks this far out it will likely change.

Here are the total liquid precipitation forecasts from the models, from the first flakes (Tues/Wed), through Saturday. This does not necessarily mean it will be done snowing on Saturday.

GFS

Canadian

European

I am very impressed with the European run. You may have noticed this winter that the European model has been understating the higher elevation area totals all season long. I will be watching very closely.

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2/14/23 Tuesday 3:50 pm

-Southwest & South-Central Colorado Travel Alert- 

Multiple safety closures are scheduled for southwest mountain passes tomorrow

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass, US 550 Mountain Corridor, US 50 Monarch Pass and CO 145 Lizard Head Pass set to close Wed., Feb. 15

Southwest & South-Central Colorado ― The National Weather Service Grand Junction forecast predicts several inches of snow through Friday for southwest Colorado’s mountain corridors. To decrease the chances of avalanche danger along high mountain passes, the Colorado Department of Transportation will conduct winter maintenance operations on several highways.

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass east of Pagosa Springs:

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass will close tomorrow morning at 5:30 a.m. so that crews can perform winter maintenance operations. Westbound traffic will be stopped just west of the ski area at the pass summit (MP 167) and eastbound traffic will be stopped near Treasure Falls (MP 157). Do not attempt to bypass the closed gates. Maintenance operations will last for much of the morning, the exact time of reopening the highway is not known.

US 550 Mountain Corridor between Durango and Ouray:

Beginning at 8:00 a.m. Wednesday morning, winter maintenance operations are planned for Coal Bank Pass, Molas Pass and Red Mountain Pass. Crews will make an effort to allow traffic through intermittently however, closures along the US 550 mountain corridor will last the majority of the day.

US 50 Monarch Pass between Gunnison and Poncha Springs:

US 50 Monarch Pass has two potential winter operations scheduled for 12:00 p.m. and 5:00 pm on Wednesday. Both closures could last up to 3 hours depending on weather conditions. Westbound traffic will be stopped near the town of Monarch (MP 205) and eastbound traffic will be stopped west of Monarch Ski Resort (MP 200).

CO 145 Lizard Head Pass between Rico and Ophir:

CO 145 will be closed at several locations between the towns of Rico and Ophir (MP 48 – MP 65) for much of Wednesday. Crews will attempt to allow traffic through periodically as the winter maintenance operations allow. There are no estimated delay times as they are dependent on weather conditions.

With significant snow accumulations and high winds forecasted for the area, travelers should be aware that additional maintenance work and safety closures may be implemented on many southwest Colorado highways for the remainder of the week. Visit cotrip.org for the latest information on road closures and conditions.

 

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2/14/23 Tuesday 2:45 pm

I have to admit, it was pretty sporty on Wolf Creek Pass. I got home around 12:30 and have been trying to unpack and settle back in. The storm looks on track to do some great things from this point forward.

Here are the liquid precipitation totals for the rest of the storm. Multiply the amount in your location by 10 then 12 to get a broad range of how much snow to expect. For example, if it shows 1 inch of liquid in your area, that model is saying 10 to 12 inches of snow. It can vary from model to model, so you have to consider that also. For our next storm, I will get back to doing the math for everyone, but unfortunately, I don’t have time to do that today.

NOAA National Model Blend

European

Canadian

GFS

 

I have got a lot of emails to catch up on tomorrow. Please save your two storm totals until Thursday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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2/14/23 Tuesday 4:30 am

I am going to be leaving SW Denver pretty soon. I am at a distinct disadvantage with not knowing how much snow has fallen from the first storm. I see that it is snowing at my house, Wolf Creek, Purgatory, and Telluride. It looks like there was a dusting in Durango. All of this is from webcams.

From the snow stake, it looks like heavy snow is falling with about 7 inches of accumulation at Purg.

The timing of the new Winter Storm Warning was moved up to start at 6 am and will last through 6 pm on Wednesday.

COZ019-142200-  
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.W.0005.230214T1300Z-230216T0100Z/  
/O.EXT.KGJT.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-230214T1300Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
206 AM MST TUE FEB 14 2023 

* WHAT...WINTER STORM WARNING, HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED.   
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER   AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.

* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING, FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY. 
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.   
  WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

COZ018-142200-  
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.W.0005.230214T1300Z-230216T0100Z/  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY  
206 AM MST TUE FEB 14 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO  6 PM MST WEDNESDAY...  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 14 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH   
AS 40 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW   
  COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

OZ020>023-142200-  
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.W.0005.230214T1300Z-230216T0100Z/  
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-  
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-  
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GATEWAY, NUCLA, CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK,   
MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS  
206 AM MST TUE FEB 14 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO  6 PM MST WEDNESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO   14 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LESSER AMOUNTS BELOW     6000 FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER, FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW   COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN     AREAS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR     EVENING COMMUTE. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.

Additonal accumulations at Wolf Creek will be in the 2 to 3 feet range!

I am going to head back earlier than I expected and I will post this afternoon when I get back and settled.

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2/13/23 Monday 5:20 am

Snow should start building in across the forecast area over the next couple of hours. I have no changes to the first storm, the bigger headlines are with the second storm.

First Storm:

OZ019-131100-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0011.230213T1200Z-230214T0900Z/  
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0002.230214T1200Z-230216T0000Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
209 PM MST SUN FEB 12 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM MST TUESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALY AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN..FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM MST TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

Second Storm:

WINTER STORM WATCH, HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. 
WINTER STORM WATCH, FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO COULD RESULT IN 
HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE,   
RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, CORTEZ,   
DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, PAGOSA SPRINGS

2:38 AM MST MON FEB 13 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING   THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND   SOUTHEAST UTAH.  
  
* WHEN...FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW   COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE   
TOPS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15   
BELOW ZERO COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT   
TAKEN.

Two storm totals:

Canadian

 

GFS

Euro

Winter is back!!

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2/12/23 Sunday 4:25 pm

I stopped to watch the Superbowl at a top-secret DWG weather outpost east of Omaha.

Snow will build tomorrow morning and continue through the day and evening Monday. Snow will diminish and may come to a lull on Tuesday morning as the second storm moves in on Tuesday. For this 1st storm, I expect widespread amounts in the 2-6 inch category with the potential for higher amounts at Wolf Creek, Purgatory, and some locations above 7,000 feet in the southern portions of the forecast area.

I will do another update late Monday afternoon. I still expect to be in Durango by early Tuesday afternoon.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 5 am Monday ending 2 am Tuesday morning. I expect a Winter Storm Warning to be issued for the second storm.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
209 PM MST SUN FEB 12 2023  
  
COZ019-131100-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0011.230213T1200Z-230214T0900Z/  
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0002.230214T1200Z-230216T0000Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
209 PM MST SUN FEB 12 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM MST TUESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALY AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN..FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM MST TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

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2/11/23 Saturday 7:25 am

Greetings from Michigan! Today is the first day I have seen the sun in about  5 days. Yesterday I experienced the coldest 39 degrees I have ever felt. You know the type, 100 percent humidity with 50 mph wind gusts out of the north, not exactly paradise.

I have been on a very tight schedule since we arrived but I had a little extra time this morning. I have been checking the models briefly each day and tracking next week’s storms. I have decided to take 3 days to drive home, and I am going to leave early Sunday, I will be back in Durango Tuesday afternoon. I will drive through the end of the first storm Tuesday morning.

This first storm will take a southern track and amounts could vary greatly throughout the forecast area. I will attempt to put out an update Sunday afternoon with updated amounts for the storms.

I am limited to working with my tablet so I do not have all of the tools I use at home so bear with me. I also will not be able to get to your questions today, thanks for understanding. Everything will be getting back to normal by Wednesday.

Here are the latest amounts in total liquid precipitation between Monday and Tuesday at 11 am.

I have lower confidence in this first storm because if the storm tracks slightly north of its current projected path, we will get more, if it tracks further south we will get less. There is also a wider variety of solutions among the models with this storm.

Storm two, “The Valentine’s Day Storm” has been more consistent in track and intensity. It arrives quickly on the heels of the first storm, and it should begin to impact the area late Tuesday afternoon. Hopefully, I will be home by then.

Here are the additional amounts from Tuesday afternoon until it stops sometime late Wednesday or Thursday.

We will likely see a Winter Storm Warning for the entire forecast area, at least for the second storm. I am not sure how they are going to handle the first storm, there is a potential that we will experience advisory-level snow in some locations.

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2/6/22 Monday 3 pm

I have to go to Detroit, my wife’s brother died. We are leaving very early Tuesday and will be gone until next week. We are still in the middle of this boring patch of weather, so I don’t think I will miss much. I still expect a pattern change between the 15th and 20th but I will be back around then. I am taking my laptop and if there is anything to talk about I will post.

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2/5/23 Sunday 8:15 am

A weak system will move through in northwesterly flow overnight tonight into Monday morning. I expect little to no precipitation in the lower elevations. According to the models, 2 to 4 inches are possible at Telluride, Ouray, and Wolf Creek. 1 or 2 inches may fall at Purgatory and Silverton. We will see if Wolf Creek will once again prove the models wrong, it would be unusual to get a lot of snow with this particular storm track.

There may be one more chance of light snow Wednesday night into Thursday. If it does happen I expect it to be as weak (if not weaker) than tonight’s system.

I am still hoping for more active weather by mid-month. The Euro is showing a Valentine’s Day storm. The GFS is showing a few storms arriving between the 12th and the 16th. Hopefully, that will come together and we will have something to talk about.

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