12/21/22 Wednesday 6:15 am

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Ouray, Telluride, and Red Mountain Pass. It is primarily because of high winds and blowing snow, actual accumulation of snow should be under 3 inches.

COZ009-014-018-220230-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0028.221222T0100Z-221222T1900Z/  
GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GUNNISON, CIMARRON, TELLURIDE, OURAY,   
AND LAKE CITY  
320 AM MST WED DEC 21 2022  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS  
EVENING TO NOON MST THURSDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4   
  INCHES INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 70 MPH. WIND CHILLS AS   
  LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO.  
  
* WHERE...GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS, UPPER GUNNISON RIVER   
  VALLEY AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON MST THURSDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD BLOWING   
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN   
  AREAS. VERY STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE.   
  THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE   
  FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

Although the coldest Arctic outbreak in over 30 years will hit the Front Range and Eastern Colorado, little will change in our neck of the woods. On Friday, there may be a better chance for some scattered snow showers, I do not expect anything major.

After Friday, things will continue to be boring for a few days. As this Arctic airmass retreats north and moves east, we will get a better look at what I hope will be the beginning of a transition to a more active storm track. This would start around the 28th-30th but may not ramp up until the first week in January. That figures. I have two eye surgeries in January and I may be limited in how well I will be able to post updates during recovery. I will make it work…

My next update will be on Thursday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/20/22 Tuesday 7:40 am

There are not any significant changes in the very short term. Scattered snow showers may develop later today in the forecast area’s northern portions, mainly over the 550 passes up through Ouray. Very light accumulations may occur.

Snow showers will develop again on Thursday as the artic airmass stalls north of I-70 in NW Colorado. Eastern Colorado will experience frigid temperatures on Thursday as the arctic air spills down the eastern slope and across the midwest down to northern Texas.

Here is the temperature forecast for Thursday evening. These are actual temps not wind chill values.

The models appear to be trending towards a wider spread light snow event for Friday. My confidence is pretty low with that at the moment, but I am keeping an eye on it. I am just going to throw it out there because a number of people are going to be traveling on Friday.  I will talk more about it every day this week.

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This doesn’t happen very often, but it does happen.

 

333   
WWHW40 PHFO 191331  
WSWHFO  
  
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI  
331 AM HST MON DEC 19 2022  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY..  
  
HIZ028-200245-  
/O.CON.PHFO.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221220T1600Z/  
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-  
331 AM HST MON DEC 19 2022  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST  
TUESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS   
  POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 8 INCHES. WINDS  
  GUSTING AS HIGH AS 100 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 10,500 FEET ELEVATION.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.   
  BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES,   
  WITH PERIODS OF ZERO VISIBILITY.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET,  
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. ANY  
TRAVEL PLANS TO THE SUMMITS SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE THREAT  
DIMINISHES.  

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12/19/22 Monday 6 am

If you have plans to drive to the midwest this week you will really want to pay attention to the weather. We have been cold here in SW Colorado. The good news is, it is not going to get any colder here than we have already been in the coming week. In fact, the overnight lows are going to moderate slightly.

That can’t be said about eastern Colorado and the midwest. The coldest air of the year is on the way. The bad news is, still no precipitation is in our forecast in the lower elevations, with just a chance of a little snow in the mountains this week.

Here are the maps put into motion beginning on Wednesday at 5 pm through Saturday 12/24 at 5 am.

Before I post that, I have zoomed in on the start of the video to explain what you are looking at.

Notice the very thick black line bisecting Wyoming from northwest to southeast diagonally across the state. That line is actually several lines packed together and it separates the very cold air to the north from the more “mild” air to the south. The blue is snow, the darker the blue the heavier the snow.  The blue lines represent the depth of the airmass. Each successive line represents colder air than the previous. The tighter those lines are stacked together the windier the conditions will be. Keep all of that in mind as you watch this.

How cold? Here are the forecast highs for Thursday afternoon.

Here are the overnight lows for Friday morning.

After Thursday, temperatures will begin to moderate, but reinforcing shots of cold air will linger in Iowa and Minnesota through Christmas weekend.

It is still too early to look very far ahead. I hope that after this arctic airmass moves east, the models will be able to articulate a more reliable long-term forecast. Here is a snapshot of  North America on December 27.

Look at all of these low-pressure systems in the Northern Pacific (I circled in blue) that could become potential storms for us in a more favorable zonal flow. No promises for now but I am watching.

I am going to be tracking this cold outbreak all week. Feel free to hit me up with travel questions. Click the blue link to reach me. I do not check Facebook and I don’t check my special email for videos very often. But I get instant notifications if you use the link in blue.

I will be posting at least once a day until Friday this week.

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12/15/22 Thursday 7 am

A weak short-wave trough will pass to the north today resulting in snow showers developing throughout the day and evening over the far northern portions of the forecast area. Light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches can be expected by tomorrow. The heaviest snow should fall in Ouray County. Just south of the town of Ouray there could be an upside surprise of 4 or 5 inches.

Aside from that, there is not a lot to talk about. Cold temperatures will continue for the next couple of days, then it appears temperatures will moderate beginning on Sunday.

The global models have really been struggling with the intrusion of the extremely cold temperatures mid to late next week. There has been a shift in the forecast further east with the airmass. I have low confidence in what I am seeing because the models struggle with cold air masses this many days out. At the moment it looks like the coldest air will set up in eastern Colorado, Wyoming and Montana, Nebraska, the Dakotas,  Iowa, and Minnesota.

Here are the forecast highs for next Thursday according to the European model.

Just to clarify, these are not anomalies they are the actual high temperatures (f). This could put quite a strain on the energy grid in some of the southern states.

I do not mind if the cold misses the western slope at all, but I do wish I could see some more meaningful precipitation in the future. As I said the models struggle with processing arctic air masses, which in turn, makes them struggle with jet placement and storm track. Until they can figure out the cold air intrusion, they are not going to be very reliable with long-wave storm development in the Pacific.

I don’t believe there will be anything to talk about on Friday, so I will post again over the weekend. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/13/22 Tuesday 12:45 pm

Before I get started here is an update on the contest. I have sent out all of the cash prizes to the winners. Only one person requested a check and that is going out today. The gift cards in my possession are also being mailed today.  I have one person who has not yet gotten back to me on her mailing address because I notified her late.

Higher resolution models are showing signs of what is known as a Gorge Event developing later today into Wednesday morning. Wrap-around moisture will combine with cold temperatures and northerly flow to produce upslope flow from Ouray to Red Mountain Pass. The high-resolution models are about 50/50 when predicting this type of occurrence. If it develops, 5 to 10 inches of snow may be possible. Even if that does not come together, isolated scattered snow showers will develop in the far northern portions of the forecast area resulting in light accumulations. for the next few afternoons.

Here are the snow totals from yesterday and last night.

Wolf Creek 12″

Purgatory 8″

Telluride 4″

Silver Creek Ranch (NE of Mancos) 9″

Top of Forest Lakes 7″

Silverton 6.5″

Durango West II 6″

Shenandoah Highlands 6″

Glacier Club 6″

CR 201 6″

Upper Hay Gulch (Hesperus) 6″

CR 141 6″

3 miles south of Edgemont 6″

CR 503 6″

CR 228&502 5.5″

Upper Gem Village 5″

Florida River Estates 5″

Upper Durango Hills 5″

Rockwood 4.5″

Deer Valley Estates 4″

South of Mancos 4″

Hermosa 2″

Durango in town 2 to 3″

Cortez North 2″

The future looks cold! We will stay below average for the next several days. Between December 21st and 23rd, models are indicating a much colder arctic blast retrograding into Colorado from the east. Snow will accompany the front. At this point, it is too early talk specifics about how cold and how much snow. It looks like eastern Colorado and Denver will be most affected. Models are preliminarily indicating below-zero highs for much of state. Again, this will affect the entire eastern slope, especially the Front Range and mountains east of the divide

If you are planning on traveling east before the holidays you will want to start paying attention to the forecast.

I don’t think I will be able to post again until Thursday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/12/22 Monday 3:20 pm

12/12/22 After a brief lull the front passed over my house beginning at 3:00 pm. A temperature drop and uptick in precipitation ensued (I live 8 miles west of Durango). This will be the case as the front and associated low-pressure system moves east.  After the frontal passage precipitation will diminish across the lower elevations. Overall, accumulations in the mid and lower elevations have exceeded model forecasts! I will post a storm wrap-up mid-morning on Tuesday.

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12/12/22 Monday 5:30 am

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in place for the entire forecast area.

As of 4 am snow had started to fall in Telluride, Ouray, Silverton, and the 550 passes. Snow is just starting (4:30 am) to fall at Purgatory. Snow will continue to develop across the area this morning reaching Durango around 9 am. Mixed precipitation may briefly fall in Cortez and Mancos before changing over to snow. This may be the case as well in areas south of Durango below 6.500 feet.

The models are very well aligned this morning. Overall, I am a big fan of what I am seeing on the European model, it will be heavily weighted in my snow forecast. Here are the liquid precipitation forecast maps.

Euro–this is a different version, the 0.40 is Durango downtown so no need for a red dot.

Canadian

NOAA WPC blended model–this model is a higher resolution model showing 0.30 inches at downtown Durango.

As I said earlier snow will continue to develop this morning, the heaviest snow should move in early this afternoon through the early evening. This will likely affect commuters at all elevations.  The snow should taper off tonight and tomorrow morning in the lower and mid-elevations. Intermittent snow showers will fall in the higher elevations over the next couple of days as the Arctic air mass settles in.

Here is my snow forecast, I do expect additional accumulations Tuesday and Wednesday in the higher elevation areas.

Wolf Creek:  10 to 13 inches

Purgatory, the 550 passes, Silverton, Rico:  7 to 9 inches

Telluride:  5 to 8 inches

Vallecito, Lemon area, top of Durango Hills, Glacier Club, Top of Forest Lakes, Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Hill, and Mancos Hill, Ouray, Mayday:  4 to 6 inches

Mid-elevation areas above 7,400 feet:  3 to 5 inches

Areas between 6,500 and 7,200 feet:  2 to 4 inches

Areas below 6,500 feet:  up to 2 inches

Areas at or below 6,000 feet:  0 to 1 inch

My next update will be this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/11/22 Sunday 6:45 am

A storm will blow into the area tomorrow morning with some very cold air accompanying it. The low-pressure system will move onshore this morning and start trekking east. I will wait to post my forecast until tomorrow morning, but it looks like everyone gets snow with this one. Advisories and Warnings are in place across most of the forecast area.

COZ021>023-112300-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0025.221212T1200Z-221213T0000Z/
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Dove Creek, Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs
255 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET…

* WHAT…Snow is expected above 6500 feet. Total snow accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE…Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Animas River Basin
, and San Juan River Basin.

* WHEN…From 5 AM to 5 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Blowing
snow will significantly reduce visibility at times.

______________________________________________________

COZ019-112300-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0011.221212T1200Z-221213T0600Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus (Mayday)
255 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2022

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST MONDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 45
mph.

* WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN…From 5 AM to 11 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow will
significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as low as
20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little
as 30 minutes.

____________________________________________________

COZ068-111845-
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0018.221212T1200Z-221213T0600Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
341 AM MST Sun Dec 11 2022

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST MONDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN…From 5 AM to 11 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as
low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

____________________________________________________

Here are the latest model runs, overall they are in decent agreement regarding timing and amounts. Higher elevations will see some decent SLRs (snow-to-liquid ratios) with this cold storm. I will cover the totals in more detail early Monday morning.

Canadian

German

GFS

My next update will be early Monday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/10/22 Saturday–early

I emailed the prize winners yesterday afternoon. There are 29 people who won prizes. So far I have heard back from 21/29 of those people. I am currently arranging delivery of those prizes with people. Please check your email, the subject line will say Contest Update, it may have filtered into your spam file. I hope to have it all sorted out by Monday.

On Sunday temperatures will rise to above normal and it will be the warmest day in the foreseeable future. The next storm will arrive on Monday and it will kick off an extended period of unsettled weather with colder temperatures. I will talk more about the details in my Sunday morning update. At this point, I still expect advisory-level snowfall in the mountains which will impact travel.

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