12/10/22 Saturday–early

I emailed the prize winners yesterday afternoon. There are 29 people who won prizes. So far I have heard back from 21/29 of those people. I am currently arranging delivery of those prizes with people. Please check your email, the subject line will say Contest Update, it may have filtered into your spam file. I hope to have it all sorted out by Monday.

On Sunday temperatures will rise to above normal and it will be the warmest day in the foreseeable future. The next storm will arrive on Monday and it will kick off an extended period of unsettled weather with colder temperatures. I will talk more about the details in my Sunday morning update. At this point, I still expect advisory-level snowfall in the mountains which will impact travel.

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12/8/22 Thursday 10 am

I will finish tabulating the contest entries when I wake up tomorrow morning. I hope to do the drawing Friday afternoon and send emails out to the winners. As I mentioned the other day I have already made all of the charitable donations.

As I posted Wednesday afternoon, the storm diverged slightly from what the models had earlier expected. My original forecast on Tuesday did well in the mountains and areas above 8,000 feet.  My forecast for Wolf Creek was 12 to 16 inches, they ended up with 13. I had 10-14 inches for Purgatory, they had 14. I had 6 to 10 inches for Telluride and Silverton, Telluride ended up with 7 and Silverton 6.5.  I expected 3 to 6 inches at the top of Durango Hills and Glacier Club, I have had reports of just over 4 inches at the top of Durango Hills and 3.5 at Glacier. I am confident we will see some accumulating snow in the lower elevations before the month’s end.

Temperatures will moderate this weekend and Sunday and it will warm up slightly. My attention is now on the next storm, it should arrive on Monday. I believe we will have another advisory-level storm in the mountains with similar totals to what we saw with this storm. The storm will likely blossom as it departs Colorado and cause a big mess in Nebraska and the Dakotas. Anyone planning to travel in that direction should keep track of this.

I will talk more about the rest of the month on Tuesday, but it looks like we will be going into a hemispheric pattern change for the last 10 to 14 days of December that will involve a direct discharge of Arctic air across the United States. That would bring temperatures well below average, in some places 30 to 40 degrees below average! Get ready for all of the “Polar Vortex” stories in the media.

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12/7/22 Wednesday 3:30 pm

We have a tendency to give up too early on storms. I do, you do, most forecasters do. The advantage would be to have a huge area to concentrate on, that way if one area does not work out maybe another does. The area I concentrate on is very limited. I do my best with the resources currently available, but things can change very quickly.

The modeling early today and up to that point was showing the frontal boundary responsible for the snow at Purgatory and Wolf Creek stalling, then moving back north today. I expected this lull and expected it to drop south before the frontal passage from the west as the models indicated for the last several days.

At the moment, the models have flipped and are keeping the boundary further north longer. IF they are correct this time it will limit the additional snow accumulations, everywhere. We will have to wait and see.

As I have said many times, you never know. One of the winters I thought this year would mirror was 2008-2009. In December 2008, coincidentally, on December 7th and 8th, a storm was coming through Durango and I was living in town at the time. There were not a lot of weather model resources back then and I had what would be considered primitive resolution model access.

I had been a weather hobbyist for 9 years at that point. I had just moved from Denver and was surprised at the lack of coverage of weather in SW Colorado. The NWS forecast was predicting 1 to 2 inches of snow in Durango downtown. I lived in Skyridge and we got 15 inches. At that moment I was hooked and I started studying everything I could about the area. I formally launched DurangoSnowLovers on Facebook in 2012 and the rest is history. It never gets any easier, and we still don’t have good coverage or a radar.

My next update will be Thursday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site! I still have people asking me about the contest, it will end whenever I wake up on Friday morning.

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12/7/22 Wednesday 8:30 am

So far so good, at least in the mountains…Here are the totals so far as of early Wednesday morning.

Wolf Creek 11 inches

Purgatory 9 inches

Telluride 4 inches

By the time we are through we could add another 6 to 10 inches to the storm totals at Wolf Creek, 4 to 6 at Purgatory, and 3 to 5 inches at Telluride. Any snow that falls in the lower elevations will be late tonight when the cold air arrives, until then more of the rain and drizzle. The mid-elevations areas are a question mark at this point, especially areas below 7,600 feet.  As this system moves out tomorrow we will dry out for a couple of days before the next storm arrives in the late Sunday or Monday timeframe. This looks like it could be another good one!

Winter Weather Advisories are still in place until Thursday morning. Avalanche Warnings are in place at least through Thursday with most areas in the high-risk (4 of 5) category. Details below

An Avalanche Warning is in effect for areas surrounding Lizard Head Pass, US 550, the La Plata Mountains, and northeast of Vallecito Lake, as well as  Wolf Creek, Cumbres, and La Manga Passes. Heavy snow and wind have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Some avalanches will release naturally and you can trigger a slide from a distance or below. Avalanches can break wider and run farther than you expect producing a larger slide. Avoid travel in or under avalanche terrain.

Conditions can change rapidly during winter storms so always check the CAIC website before you head out. If you missed my post yesterday, the contest will be coming to a close late Thursday night. Here is a link with the details. Contest Update From Tuesday’s Post

I don’t anticipate posting later today, but that will depend on what the new model runs show me. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/6/22 Tuesday 3:30 pm

Winter Weather Advisories are active across all of the SW Colorado Mountains. Avalanche Warnings are also in place across all of the SW Colorado Mountains. For the 550 passes and Lizard Head, avalanche conditions will be moderate (level 2) on Wednesday. Avalanche conditions around Wolf Creek will be high on Wednesday (level 4 out of 5)

Not a lot of surprises with the additional model runs. If anything there was a slight downturn in the lower elevation totals. Don’t get too concerned, if you are relatively new to the area, November and early December snow accumulations are never very high in the lower elevations, they are more uncommon than common. It is more common for the lower elevation locations to start seeing more productive storms right before or shortly after Christmas.

Snow will be on the increase in the mountains tonight but will pick up towards sunrise. In the mid-elevations don’t be too surprised if nothing happens overnight, snow should pick up throughout the day. In the lower elevations, it may not even snow until Wednesday night. We’ll see

The big winner will once again be Wolf Creek with this storm. Here is my forecast for the storm totals ending Thursday. BTW–If you want to send me snow reports that would be great, but I will be more interested in the two-day totals that come in on Thursday.

These totals in the mountains are fairly conservative and do not reflect what could happen if banding occurs. Banding is simply what happens in a dynamic storm environment, heavy snow bands develop that get hung up over an area for an extended period of time. I do expect some upside surprises with this storm.

Wolf Creek and Coal Bank:  12 to 16 inches

Purgatory, Molas, and Red Mountain: 10 to 14 inches

Mayday, Rico, Silverton, and Telluride:  6 to 10 inches

North Vallecito, Lemon area, Tween Lakes, Top of Durango Hills, Top of Forest Lakes, Glacier Club: 3 to 6 inches

All other mid-elevation areas:  2 to 5 inches

Low elevation areas:  Up to 2 inches

I will post at some point on Wednesday, I am not sure when. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/6/22 Tuesday 6 am

Contest Update

Just a reminder, on Friday morning I will begin tabulating all of the entries for the contest and draw for prizes hopefully Friday afternoon. There are $2500 in prizes plus 3 guided 1-day fishing trips on a private riverfront property that has been open for public fishing for over 12 years. I will contact the winners via private email over the weekend and will release the names publicly (unless they ask me not to) when I hear back from all of them.

One thing that I did differently this year was in addition to the prize money, I allocated an additional $2000 to local charities. Yesterday, I donated to 6 of those charities online, and today I am sending a check to the 7th charity. 5 of the charities were local foodbanks in SW Colorado, and 2 were charities conducting toy drives for children.

_________________________________________________________

Storm Update

Yesterday afternoon, a Winter Weather Advisory was hoisted beginning at 6 pm tonight. For whatever reason, they changed that to begin at 5 am this morning. Meaningful precipitation is unlikely to fall until very late tonight and Wednesday. It is a standard Winter Weather Advisory and I do believe that this storm will produce enough snow in the higher elevations to meet the standard criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory.

COZ018-019-062000-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0024.221206T1200Z-221208T1300Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS (MAYDAY)
457 AM MST TUE DEC 6 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST THURSDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…UNTIL 6 AM MST THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

---

COZ066-068-061845-
/O.EXT.KPUB.WW.Y.0033.221206T1200Z-221208T1300Z/
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-WOLF CREEK PASS
345 AM MST TUE DEC 6 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST THURSDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

* WHERE…LA GARITA AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

* WHEN…UNTIL 6 AM MST THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING.

So what they are basically saying is up to 18 inches at Wolf Creek, which I agree is a possibility!

I saw one model run from the overnight hours that I like so well that it is the only model I am going to post this morning. Unless I see something else to change my mind it will be the primary influence on my forecast this afternoon.

Here is NOAA’s blended model the NBM.

Liquid equivalent precipitation in inches

Here is the snow forecast in inches calculated at a 10-1 ratio (it will be higher than that above 9,000 feet)

Because of all the red colors, I had to use a yellow dot.

I will post a snow forecast later this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/5/22 Monday 7:30 am

Everything looks on track for an extended precipitation event beginning later today. Showers will be scattered this afternoon and evening and will favor the higher elevations, but can’t be ruled out anywhere. Precipitation will be more consistent Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will continue on Wednesday throughout the day. More than likely, it will end before Thursday morning but the Canadian is still showing snow throughout the day.

By the time it is all done the resorts should pick up 8 to 20 inches of snow. The lower elevations will likely see 2 to 4 inches of snow with 3 to 8 inches in the mid-elevations. I do expect to see, at the least, a Winter Weather Advisory hoisted on Tuesday.

Here are the latest precipitation forecasts

Of all the models, the NOAA blended NBM model makes the most sense.

NBM

GFS

The Canadian and Euro are overstating the accumulations in Pagosa.

Canadian

Euro

 

My next update will be on Tuesday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/4/22 Sunday 7:15 am

Sundays and Tuesdays (for whatever reason) are my website’s highest-viewed days with the exception of the days we have big storms. So just a reminder, the contest drawing will be on Friday. I will reach out by email to the winners before announcing anything publicly. If I don’t have your email I will try to contact you by other means. If I don’t receive a response I will list people’s names in a post next week.

Scattered light rain and snow showers will develop later today and persist through Monday. The precipitation in the lower elevations may be more of a drizzle than a shower at times. More meaningful and organized precipitation will develop Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. At the moment it appears that Wednesday’s precipitation will be impactful and reach advisory criteria. But there are still a few days to sweat out the details. For now, just keep in the back of your mind that Wednesday might be a challenging day for travel.

Keeping with the thought process I have had for a couple of days, I think it is better to look at the big picture when looking at the model precipitation forecasts.  Just know that late Tuesday through Wednesday is when the bigger totals will start. It very well could run later than that, I will be keeping an eye on the timing of that system.

Here are the latest precipitation forecasts

GFS

Euro–The Euro is trending up in its totals. This run is the”rapid update” run which only displays 90 hours of activity. According to previous runs, snow will continue for 9 to 12 hours longer than what is displayed here. We will have a better handle on that tomorrow.

Canadian–The Candian is forecasting an extended event with snow continuing Thursday and ending late Thursday night. Therefore, it shows much higher totals than other models. While that would be nice, I am not yet counting on that. However, we have seen the Canadian model predict this scenario before, sometimes it is correct and other times it is not.

My next update will be on Monday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/3/22 Saturday 8 am

Isolated mountain snow showers will continue throughout the day with minimal impact or accumulation. By tomorrow, the models diverge, with the Euro advecting some light subtropical precipitation into the area. This would fall as rain in the lower elevations and snow in the higher elevations.

The Canadian and GFS do not introduce the moisture until Monday. The models do agree that the heaviest precipitation should fall Tuesday night through Wednesday. The systems that will be moving through are less organized than I prefer to deal with and for now, are very difficult to work out individual details throughout the period.

I said yesterday I would start posting the model forecast accumulations today. These will be for today through Thursday. When I see a model run similar to what the European showed overnight, it tells me that the model it is still trying to work out the details. It starts the light precipitation on Sunday and it continues with just a few lulls until Thursday. This is an unlikely scenario and one I will be keeping an eye on.

Here are the European model maps put into motion. I am sorry but when I post a GIF like this I cannot add a red dot or crop the map to enhance our forecast area.

The green is rain, the blue is snow, and the freezing rain is pink. The darker the colors the heavier the precipitation.

I have mentioned in the past that often times the models will be fairly correct over a longer period but may get the day-to-day totals wrong so for now, let’s just look at the forecast totals through Thursday.

Here are the preliminary totals. There is a 100% chance that these totals will change over the next couple of days, at this point it is impossible to tell if they will increase or decrease. The amount of precipitation forecast for this period by the Euro is exactly the average amount of precipitation that historically has fallen during this period in the past.

European–There is no red dot needed with this service because the 0.6 is Durango downtown.

Canadian

GFS

This is the “new” GFS. About as soon as I get used to this model’s biases and quirks it gets “upgraded” so I am not very comfortable interpreting it right now. Be aware that most apps use the GFS for forecasts, which is why I am not a big fan of apps. The one exception would be the Open Snow app because they disclose where its data comes from and how often it updates.

I like what the German model is doing here, not only because it has the highest overall totals, but because I like the way it is spreading the precipitation based on terrain-driven orographics.

 

My next update will be on Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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12/2/22 Friday 12:45 pm

Light snow is still falling but the system is slowly winding down in the mountains. It looks like 4 inches for Purgatory, and 2 inches for Telluride. Red Mountain picked up 7.5 inches of snow, 2 inches fell at Molas and 5 inches fell at Coal Bank. No word from Wolf Creek yet, but it looks like light snow is still falling there.

The models have not yet made up their minds on Saturday. Based on what I am seeing I think scattered snow showers in the mountains are likely late morning or early afternoon Saturday. Beginning on Sunday, a series of systems will roll through every couple days. This pattern should last all week making for a cool and unsettled week. Most of the models are painting some decent totals between Sunday and Friday of next week.

I will start tracking those totals in my next post on Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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