10/30/26 Friday 5:00 am
Changes:
- Flood Watch Issued
- Models continue to speed up the onset of the first batch of precipitation, now expected to arrive tonight and depart Saturday afternoon-Dry for trick-or-treating? Maybe…
- Models are increasing their forecast for the first batch of precipitation, now expecting 0.50″-0.80″ by Saturday afternoon.
- The main system is expected to linger until Monday afternoon in the lower and mid-elevations and until Monday night in the higher elevations.
- Snow levels will be slightly lower tonight and tomorrow than on Sunday, so in some cases, rain on snow, which is not good.
- Snow levels are finally forecast to drop late Sunday into Monday morning (unless the cold front stalls, which it usually does)
Here is the Excessive Rain Outlook (ERO) from the Weather Prediction Center for Sunday Morning through Monday morning: We don’t often see such a high risk.
Here is a list of the rivers and locations already forecast to be at or above action stage by (or before) Monday; this list will likely get much longer.
San Juan River at Pagosa, Mancos River at Mancos, La Plata River at Hesperus, La Plata River at State line, La Plata River at Farmington, Animas River at Cedar Hill, Animas River at Farmington, Los Pinos near Vallecito, Navajo at Chromo.
I am not going to load the hydrographs yet because it’s all going to change…
Models: From low to high
European
German
WPC: If you look real close, there is a 5.33″ bullseye right over La Platas
UKMET
GFS AI
Canadian
I will be back around 1 pm. Looks like another busy weekend!