10/5/22 Wednesday 1:15 pm

I only got two rain reports yesterday and one was from me. This tells me the showers were pretty isolated, we got a decent 0.46 inches in my neighborhood and the temp dropped to 47.

Showers are redeveloping as I type this, and some models are showing them to be a little more widespread as the afternoon wears on. We’ll see. This pattern of isolated to scattered showers looks to continue this week and more widespread showers will be possible by this weekend.

Yesterday, I mentioned a disturbance and cold front could be headed our way in the middle of next week. It is still a way out, but if I continue to see the models agree on this I will be pretty confident by the weekend. There are some indications that the snow levels could drop to between 9,500 and 9,000 feet with the storm. Actually, the Euro is showing much lower snow levels by Friday 10/14, but I am not ready to get my hopes up just yet.

I also shared the Euro extended forecast, but I think it is going to be much wetter than it showed in yesterday’s most recent run. Here are the latest 10-day forecast totals.

GFS liquid

Canadian liquid

Euro liquid

My next update will be on Friday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

10/4/22 Tuesday 6:30 am

Before I get into the short medium and long-term outlooks I wanted to share some information with everyone. I do not always share all of the rain totals I receive. I appreciate the reports it helps me determine where the models are most successful.  I usually compare those totals to the network of weather stations around the area. The best source of all of the data is Wunderground.

There are other networks but they are not free. Wunderground is owned by IBM. IBM is using the data from the network to build its own private in-house short-term forecasting model. I monitor over 50 stations on the network. I cannot send links to all of them but here are a couple.

People have asked me for links so here you go.

Downtown Durango: Downtown Durango

Telluride Deep Creek: Telluride DC  There are others in the area but sometimes they are not online, some only have the temperature.

From either of these links, you can scroll down and look at previous days/weeks/ months totals. Make sure you save the link before you click on previous totals.

You can also zoom out on the “Wundermap” and find stations closer to your location and access their data.

I don’t see any one feature that is going to be driving our weather in the short term, I also do not see a completely dry stretch of weather over the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible nearly every day, favoring areas along and north of Highway 160 all of the way to Ridgway. As always, the higher terrain will be most favored.

In the medium term, the models are trying to sniff out a backdoor cold front retrograding into the state mid to late next week. Cold fronts and moisture are what we like to see during the fall when the weather is typically boring. I had seen this feature on the GFS a couple of days ago, it is not on the current run. I now am seeing it on the Euro. My confidence is pretty low this far out.

The long-term outlook looks pretty good. The Euro extended came out late yesterday and it shows average to just slightly below normal temperatures and precipitation for the next 30 to 45 days. This model usually verifies cooler and wetter than its predictions.

Precipitation anomaly through November 16th

Total snow before melting through November 16th

My next update will be on Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

10/3/22 Monday 9:30 am

Isolated to scattered showers may redevelop across the forecast area with the leftover moisture from the weekend. I don’t want to go beyond today yet because the models are trying to figure out the rest of the week and weekend. We may continue to have isolated afternoon showers that transition back into a cool wet period by the weekend.

Thanks for all of the rain reports yesterday and this morning. Every report was higher than what we received in my neighborhood so I am a bit envious. Reports ranged from just under 0.50 inches to over 2.00 inches!  A pretty good start to October.

If you have not had a chance to go see the leaves yet, you are missing a good year. We went out again yesterday, here is a sample of what you could be missing.

My next weather update will be on Tuesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

10/2/22 Sunday 6:45 am

I have been noticeably absent from Facebook (Meta or whatever) I appreciate the followers there responding to my post, they posted pictures of snow all over SW Colorado–beautiful photos! I am going up this morning to get some more pictures of the spectacular fall foliage.

There is mixed precipitation falling at or above 8,800. At 5:30 am it is 33 degrees in Silverton and Telluride. Showers are on the increase from west to east, this should continue today. Heavier showers have been falling in the central and northern portions of the forecast area (from just north Hermosa to Ouray). Lakewood Meadows has already had 1.2 inches of liquid. Areas further south have received much less. The models are still advertising close to half an inch by Monday for those areas.

Showers will redevelop on Monday. Beyond that, the models are in poor agreement.

I am going to check out some new snow. Here is a live shot from Telluride (Mountain Village)!

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10/1/22 Saturday 8:15 ish am

I was fooled…I was on the CDOT site and I saw the trademark light blue on 550 (snow and slushy conditions) from south of Silverton to north of Silverton. I eventually got the webcam to display and saw what looked like snow on the trees and sides of the road. I did not realize it was not light enough to see those images correctly. I got DWG Mobile 1 loaded up, then decided to have one more look, this time it was evident I was wrong. Here was the culprit. This is the current view.

At sunrise, the gravel looked like snow. Oh well,  I am hoping a little cooler air will work in overnight, so hopefully tomorrow I will make the trip.

As I said earlier, showers will develop or in some cases re-develop throughout the day. If the sun comes out we may see some convection fire this afternoon (thunderstorms). The best chances for rain today will be in the mid and higher elevation areas. And all areas in the northcentral to northern portions of the forecast area. Roughly north of Tamarron to Ouray and Telluride.

On Sunday, most of the forecast area should get in on the act. There is very good agreement among all of the models that 0.50 to 1.00+ inches will fall by Monday morning. Based on those amounts it looks like most of the rain will be stratiform (falling consistently from gentle to moderate instead of thunderstorms).

Here are the models

Euro

Canadian

GFS

NOAA NBM

NOAA WPC

My next update will be on Sunday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

10/1/22 Saturday 7 am

Expect on and off showers throughout the day, favoring areas at or above 8,500 feet. Tomorrow more widespread showers will develop across the forecast area. I am headed up north to go check out the snow! I will post an update later today.

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9/30/22 Friday 6:30 am

Although yesterday was the first day I mentioned the pattern change it is something I have been monitoring for a while. It is not at all unusual for this time of year, and something I look forward to. What would be unusual is if conditions stayed unsettled all fall. Normally, we flip back to dry conditions for a while so everyone can worry about the ski season.

More isolated showers this afternoon, then later today and tonight a cold front will be approaching the area. This could lead to widespread showers across the forecast area this weekend. Tonight, as colder air filters into the forecast area snow levels should drop to around 10,000 feet.

Saturday will see a better chance of rain showers across the mid-elevation areas, with a wintry mix above 9,500 feet and all snow at or above 11,000. Saturday night could get interesting with snow levels dropping possibly to the 9,000-foot level. Rain showers should develop across even the lower southern elevation areas by Sunday afternoon.

Here are the maps in motion from the Euro beginning tonight and ending on Monday at 6 am.

The models are not in agreement regarding next week yet. The Euro sees this cool wet pattern continuing throughout the week. The other models waited to jump on board with this pattern change. I would not be surprised to see them join the Euro on its prediction that the unsettled weather continues throughout the week.

Here is what the Euro is forecasting for precipitation over the next 10 days.

Here is the snow before melting, and it will, based on the liquid forecast above.

And here is the same from the slightly less-bullish GFS

Liquid

Snow before melting

I am not worried at this time about a low elevation freeze, but I am monitoring the situation and will let everyone know before it happens.

I may or may not post again this afternoon, but I will early on Saturday.

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9/29/22 Thursday 7:45 am

Expect isolated showers to develop again today over the higher terrain, showers may become more scattered in nature on Friday.

There is a lot for me to keep an eye on coming up. It appears that we are going to flip into a cooler wetter pattern beginning in the northern portions of the forecast area on Friday afternoon. Areas south will likely have to wait until the weekend.

I am not quite ready to go into the details as the models have not yet converged on a solution for snow levels. The Euro is quite aggressive. It is already showing accumulating snow for the higher elevations, with snow levels possibly dipping below 10,000 feet. We’ll see. The best chance of that happening appears to be Saturday night. Again, I am not quite ready to jump all in on this idea, but it is something I am tracking, and something people should be aware of if they have outside plans in the mountains this weekend. The most impressive totals, according to the model, would fall in the La Platas.

This could lead to some pretty dramatic snow and fall color opportunities for photography lovers. We went to Silverton yesterday, and along the drive saw near peak, to peak colors from Coal Bank north. It looks like Purgatory, depending on the upcoming weather could peak this weekend or early next week.

Here is a glimpse of what I saw

My next update will be on Friday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

9/28/22 Wednesday 5 am MDT

The European model continues to be the best and most reliable model when it comes to Hurricane tracking and forecasting. The other weather models are always trying to play catch up with it. The track for the most devastating weather is just south of Venice to Bradenton extending northeast all of the way to the Plant City/Lakeland area. Unfortunately, a number of people who thought they were evacuating to a safer area inland have put themselves in a worse situation in some of the inland areas.

There are still discrepancies between the wind spread and precipitation amounts between the European and the higher resolution models. The higher resolution models still show higher precipitation totals extending further north into Tampa Bay. I do not expect any changes in the track of the storm.

Here are the peak wind gusts and precipitation forecasts depicted by the European model.

Wind

Detailed View

Rain

Detailed View

Here are peak wind gusts and rain forecasts from the high-resolution NAM model

Detailed View

Rain

Detailed View

It is interesting to see that the high-resolution model extends the heavy rain totals all of the way to the Atlantic Coast with Orlando and Daytona in its path.

It is looking like this storm will briefly spend time over the Atlantic Coast and hit the Georgia-South Carolina Coastlines as a Tropical Storm.

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9/27/22 Tuesday 4 pm mt

There is still a lot of uncertainty on where the worst winds and rain will occur with Hurricane Ian. The European model has shifted the worst condition south to the Sarasota area.

Most recent European storm track

Here are the peak wind gusts with that track

That 128 mph peak gust is at Venice.

Here are the rain storm totals associated with that track

Again, that is Venice with a 25.11 inch rainfall total forecast

Contrast that with the American models which still prefer a scenario for a wider spread Windfield extending to the Greater Tampa/St Pete area.

Here is the track from the NAM 3km high-resolution model

Here are the peak wind gusts associated with that track

This is a scary scenario with peak wind gusts of 120 to 125 mph from Venice to St Pete with 130-135 mph gusts from Anna Maria to St Pete Beach.

Here is the rainfall associated with that track

That 30.87 inch total is at St Pete/Clearwater Airport south of the Causeway off of the Bayside Bridge.

Historically, the European model has been much more accurate in storm track and precipitation, especially with Hurricanes. I will be posting an early update on Wednesday morning.

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