8/27/22 Saturday 10:15 am

I mentioned yesterday that it is difficult to determine when the monsoon is shutting down for the season. I am just going to leave that hanging out there for the time being.

I also mentioned that some locations in the forecast area may end up with slightly below normal precipitation totals for August. After I posted that, I spent more time looking around at various weather stations and determined that I was placing too much emphasis on what was happening in my own backyard versus what is happening elsewhere. A number of the locations I looked at showed some amazing totals for August. After yesterday some of the totals range from 5 to 7 inches for the month!

Yesterday the heaviest precipitation fell in La Plata County. Widespread amounts of 0.50 inches were common, and a few areas received 1.00 to 1.75 inches.

Today looks to be a transition day into a drier pattern. The models are showing high-pressure building in with lower chances of widespread precipitation in the afternoon. This pattern of only isolated showers in the afternoon looks like it will continue through at least mid-next week.

I am hesitant to look too much deeper into my weather crystal ball. Keep in mind what I said about the monsoon and we will see where this pattern leads us.

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8/26/22 Friday 7:20 am

Numerous scattered showers developed yesterday afternoon. Precipitation amounts ranged from a few hundredths to 1/4 of an inch. A weak wave moving through northern New Mexico has triggered mostly stratiform showers overnight and this morning across the forecast area. The models indicate this activity will continue through the day with a better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms redeveloping this afternoon. As is always the case, cloud cover may limit afternoon convection.

I have gotten a number of emails this month asking if we set any precipitation records this summer and how has that helped the drought. The last time I got this many emails regarding excessive precipitation was during the spring of 2019 after our anomalously snowy winter.

We are not going to set any records this summer.  After a very wet June and July August is likely to come in below average in many locations throughout the forecast area, but the June through August total will come in above average.

I have been encouraged to use data from the last 30 years rather than the previous 100 years. The reason I prefer using the older data is that it encompasses more meteorological cycles. If you look at the average summer and fall precipitation totals, we have been wetter over the last 30 years than the previous 100 years. I use Durango as a benchmark because the Western Regional Climate Center has records for Durango’s total precipitation back to 1894. The 5-month June through October average total precipitation (liquid equivalent) over the last 30 years is 9.22 inches. The previous 100 year (1894-1991) average total is 8.65 inches.

The 30-year data indicates September and October are our 2nd and 3rd wettest months of the year behind August. Let’s hope that is the case.

Here is the latest info on the drought. The fact that it has been wetter in Durango during the 5 months from June through October correlates well with NOAA’s own long-term drought data from 1895 to present. This data shows the anomalously dry periods in the US with warmer tones of yellow gold orange and red. While the colder tones of light green turquoise and blue indicate the anomalously wet periods. The percentage applies to the entire US. For example, in May 2019 82.3% of the US was abnormally wet.

Here is the drought monitor for Colorado back on June 16th of this year.

Here is the latest data released yesterday.

My next update will be on Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

8/25/22 Thursday 7:15 am

I am sorry that I have not been regular with my weather updates. The truth is my recovery from my procedure was extended and I had to go back on Tuesday so I have been a bit “under the weather”. Fortunately, we have been in a boring weather pattern with largely afternoon convective showers developing daily.

It is amazing that as you get older how quickly time goes by–I guess Einstein was right. I don’t want to prompt a discussion from my Physicist friends and followers right now so save your keystrokes.

The point is, it was not long ago that I was talking about how it is difficult to know for sure when the monsoon “turns on”. Equally challenging is knowing when it turns off. The later you get into the season the easier it is for forecasters to refer to any rain as monsoonal moisture. Sometimes it just rains, and as I have said for many years, sometimes it just snows.

Just as I was not ready to declare that the monsoon started in June, I am equally apprehensive to declare it has ended for our region. But I am seeing less of a monsoonal signature with our afternoon showers lately.

The weather models have struggled a lot with their mesoscale (short-term) forecasts over the last couple of months rendering most forecaster’s predictions in the weeds. I feel like it has been a huge learning curve for me. I am not sure that I learned anything new other than there is still a lot to learn when it comes to the monsoon season.

With all of that off my chest, Thursday and Friday appear to have a better chance of more widespread showers. As has been the case for the last several weeks I have low confidence in the models’ prognostications regarding this. Overall, August has been disappointing for precipitation amounts. Yes, there have been isolated areas that have done very well but not nearly as much as the anomalously wet months of June and July.

Meteorological fall is six days away. Before long I will be talking about winter. It is still a little too early to talk about the upcoming winter season, but it should be interesting.  We are headed into our third La Nina year. The La Nina forecast shows strengthening through early winter and then transitioning to a more neutral signature before developing into an El Nino later next year.  ENSO (El Nino/La Nina)  is only one of the drivers of our winters. Many other factors come into play so it is important not to come to early conclusions at this point. The fact that is a third La Nina points to some historical past anomalies that have led to colder and slightly wetter conditions than normal, we’ll see.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been quite a bust so far this year. Things may be changing in the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 to 14 days so my Texas followers should be aware of that as we move into September.

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8/20/22 Saturday 11:15 am

Yesterday I made a point of saying everything looked good on paper for a cooler and wetter weekend. So far, the models have been mostly wrong on that call. The exception was Ouray County over to Telluride and areas further north. Most of the other locations in the forecast area only recorded trace amounts of precipitation.

The models are still mixed on our precipitation chances today. If I just rely on real-time data and imagery, it appears that some drier air is working in from west to east. This could work in our favor. If the sun comes out residual moisture could fuel some convective showers later today.

As is usually the case the best chances of precipitation will be across the higher terrain. Please send me any reports of significant rain or thunderstorm activity.

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8/19/22 Friday 8 am

Everything looks good on paper for a better chance of widespread showers this weekend. As has been the norm this summer the models are relatively clueless regarding precipitation amounts but are in support of the wetter idea.

Precipitable water values are forecasted to be 120%-140% of normal for the next few days. Storm motion will be slow so the potential for heavy rain exists across the forecast area. As is always the case the best chances will be over the higher terrain first, then drifting into the lower valleys.

Temperatures will likely not climb out of the 70s in the lower elevations this weekend with cooler temperatures elsewhere.

For today, cloud cover may delay convection until later this afternoon.

My next update will be on Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

8/17/22 Wednesday 7 am

It is good to be back home. The weather in the midwest was as boring as I have ever seen it this time of year.

I have not done a deep dive but when I look at the rain totals across our forecast area over the last seven days it appears there were hit and miss isolated showers across the area.

More of the same today, then we should see a slight downturn in the activity on Thursday with remnant moisture fueling any thunderstorm development. On Friday, and into the weekend it looks like a more favorable setup will come together for widespread shower activity.

Just a reminder, I have an elective procedure I am getting done later today that will likely put me out of commission tomorrow. If I am doing better on Friday I will do a weekend update.

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8/11/22 Thursday 5:15 am

I wrote an update yesterday and once again I forgot to hit publish.  Yesterday I wrote that the NWS has been talking about a better chance of showers developing yesterday and today. I said that the models do not reflect that for our area.

After reading this morning’s forecast discussion, it is apparent to me that they are not talking about our forecast area at all. They are concentrating on the northwest quadrant of Colorado. We may still see isolated to scattered convective showers each afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. However, there is no well-defined monsoonal signature over SW Colorado for now. Early indications from the models show a better chance of the monsoonal flow developing by the middle of next week.

I have a lot on my plate right now. I am flying out to Kansas City early Friday morning. From there I will be traveling to Iowa to see family briefly and I will fly back to Durango on Tuesday. Wednesday I have to get an elective procedure done that will put me out of commission for a couple of days. I may try to post on Saturday. I will have some time to kill before my niece’s wedding. If I see something intriguing in the models at any time I will post an update. Other than that consider no news to be no news.

A couple of people contacted me about the weather conditions this weekend. All of the models show more of the same for the next several days. Isolated to scattered convective showers favoring the higher terrain every afternoon.

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Tuesday 5:20 pm

August 9, 2022

― DURANGO UTILITY WORK ALERT ―  
Water line work will impact traffic at Camino del Rio and 8th Street 

DURANGO ― Motorists will encounter lane shifts and delays along US 550 Camino del Rio near the Durango City Transit Center and parking lot. Water line work, which is being performed by a private developer, will require lane shifts and closures on Camino del Rio at 8th Street. Work on the water line, which began today and will continue through the end of August, is being performed by a contractor for the River Roost development occurring near Applebee’s restaurant. 

Lane shifts will be put into place to maintain northbound and southbound traffic movement. Southbound traffic will not be permitted to turn left onto 8th Street. Access into Applebee’s will be limited to the north entrance near 9th Street. The work zone and lane shifts will be in place day and night, 24-7 through the duration of the project. Motorists can expect congestion in the area and should allow for extra travel time. Motorists may consider finding an alternate route.

My next update will be Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

8/9/22 Tuesday 5:15 am

For today, expect a similar setup to yesterday. Isolated to scattered afternoon storms throughout the forecast area. As usual, the higher terrain will be favored but a few storms will roll off to the mid and lower elevations. High pressure will be slowly moving to our east this week. This should put the area into a more favorable position for widespread showers and thunderstorms as the week progresses.

Yesterday an impressive-looking band of storms moved from the central portions of the forecast area to the southern portions of the forecast area. I was eagerly watching on radar waiting for the rain to dump on my house. The blue dot is where I live.

0.01 inches. That is all I got despite the impressive radar returns. I am beginning to think the Grand Junction radar has gotten worse since their last two “fixes”. However, half an hour later, I heard from a loyal follower in the Shenandoah subdivision which is south of me. He received an inch of intense rain in under an hour. The moral of the story is, that we still cannot trust the Grand Junction radar.

This led me to reach out to the County gods and check the status of our radar. Here is what they told me.

The radar will be housed at the Durango La Plata County Airport. In July, they released an RFP (request for proposal)  seeking bids for a vendor to provide a solution and manage the project. Unfortunately, they were not able to select a vendor based on the responses. So, they are re-releasing the RFP by the end of this month. The timeline remains to have the project complete no later than March 2024.

Ugh, don’t shoot the messenger…maybe we should include hiking trails and bike lanes around the radar facility, I am sure we would be able to find a favorable bid then…sorry, could not resist.

It’s Tuesday, time for the extended outlook. As I mentioned yesterday, there is plenty of August left and the monsoon is not over. There is still a positive precipitation anomaly forecasted for the next 6 weeks.

Here is the forecasted anomaly through September 22

The same model is projecting a dusting of snow in the higher elevations between 9/10 and 9/22.

I’ll take it.

My next update will be Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

 8/8/22 Monday 9:15 am

CAPE values will peak between 2 pm and 5 pm this afternoon. That is when there will be the most energy for thunderstorm development. Any storms that do develop will be slow movers again today. They will be capable of producing flash flooding conditions. As always, we don’t know where they are going to set up, if at all.

I went back and looked at the last couple of months. Each month there has been a considerable lull in the monsoonal flow. Here are some graphs from the weather station in my neighborhood.

Notice the large lulls in June and July. There is a lot of August left, so don’t worry that the monsoon is over.

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