A Change Is On The Way

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment
9/11/22 Sunday 5 am
Finally, something to talk about! I have been patiently waiting for our first taste of fall weather. The Front Range got a pleasant representation of fall yesterday. At 4 pm temperatures ranged from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations with temps at or above the 8000-foot level in the upper 30s to low 40s.
We will not see that this week, but the temperature will be noticeably cooler beginning on Tuesday. It looks like widespread showers will be developing as well.
It seems like forever since I last did this but let’s put the maps in motion and see how this all plays out. The Euro has been very consistent for the last few days so that is the model I have chosen.
This starts Tuesday at 6 am and lasts through late Thursday night. Each frame represents 6 hours. The darker the shades, the heavier the precipitation. Green is liquid, and blue is snow. At the moment it looks like the snow level will be around 12,000 feet.
For today, isolated afternoon convective showers will be possible. These are the unpredictable type that favor the higher elevations but are possible anywhere. Tomorrow should be a relatively quiet day with lower chances of showers developing. I will follow up on that and the rest of the week tomorrow morning.
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Spotty Showers

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
9/7/22 Wednesday 8 am
Yesterday a few isolated convective (nonsoonal) showers developed across mainly the southern and central portions of the forecast area. The highest totals I could find were in my own neighborhood. Durango West 2 picked up 0.45 inches of rain. Graupel mixed in with a couple of heavy downpours. It did not last very long.
Although the monsoon is over, these afternoon convective (nonsoonal) showers are common in September. They are very difficult to predict when and where they will occur.
A couple of things may affect our weather this weekend. Hurricane Kay, about 200 miles south of the tip of Baja, will continue to move north and start weakening. Models are divided on what path it will take as that happens. Some of the remnants may get caught up in the flow and make it into our area. There are also models that show the storm weakening and turning sharply to the west and back out to sea. It is a coin flip at this point. Even if some of the remnants make it here, I do not expect high precipitation totals.
The other factor that could affect our weather is a cold front that should drape across the Front Range bringing cooler weather east of the divide and if we’re lucky drop temperatures west of the divide late weekend into next week. Seasonal temperatures would feel pretty good after the warm weather we have been having.
No promises on either the wetter weather or the cooler temperatures just yet. We will have to see how it pans out.
I will be tracking both of these features and I will put something out as soon as the models get a better handle on them. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Road Construction Reminder

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

9/5/22 Monday 9:45 am

Hopefully, everyone has been having a nice extended weekend. There certainly has not been a lot of weather to discuss. I am still hoping we will get into a more active period as we approach mid-September.

This traffic update came out last week but I figured everyone would remember it better if I posted it today since it starts tomorrow.

 

Colorado Department of Transportation

August 30, 2022

Adair Christensen
SW Region 5 Communications Specialist
970-903-4327 | adair.christensen@state.co.us

― DURANGO BRIDGE REPAIR ALERT ―

CDOT to perform a bridge repair west of the US 160 & US 550 (Camino Del Rio) intersection Motorists will encounter lane shifts and traffic delays next week, Sept. 6 – 9

DURANGO ― The Colorado Department of Transportation will complete a permanent bridge repair on the US Highway 160 bridge over the Animas River, located on the south side of the DoubleTree Hotel and just west of the US 160 and US 550 intersection in Durango. The bridge work will take place, from Tuesday, Sept. 6 through Friday, Sept. 9 from 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.

Last month, CDOT completed a temporary repair of the bridge by installing steel road plates over the expansion joint. Crews will now cut a new 1-inch groove into the concrete surface and add a urethane fill on top of the expansion joint. This permanent repair will increase the life of the bridge structure and improve the road surface by allowing the concrete surface to naturally expand and contract. Additionally, potholes and crevices on the bridge will be patched.

Drivers are urged to reduce their speeds while approaching the bridge. The temporary steel plates create bumps on the east end of the bridge. Once the expansion joint work is complete at this location, the steel plates, and the bumps will be removed.

Traffic Impacts

Motorists will encounter both westbound and eastbound lane shifts and crews will attempt to keep traffic moving through the work zone. However, significant delays can be expected at the US 160 and US 550 intersection due to congestion caused by the limited lanes available. Travelers should allow themselves extra time. Motorists as well as pedestrians, are asked to seek an alternate route, if possible. Motorists are urged to watch for workers and their equipment, slow down and drive with extreme caution.

Know Before You Go
Travelers are urged to “know before you go.” Gather information about weather forecasts and anticipated travel impacts and current road conditions prior to hitting the road. CDOT resources include:

Road conditions and travel information: COtrip.org
Download the COtrip Planner app: bit.ly/COtripapp
Sign up for project or travel alerts: bit.ly/COnewsalerts
See scheduled construction lane closures: bit.ly/laneclosures
Connect with @ColoradoDOT on social media: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.

Remember: Slow For The Cone Zone
The following tips are to help you stay safe while traveling through maintenance and construction work zones.

Do not speed in work zones. Obey the posted speed limits.
Stay Alert! Expect the unexpected. Watch for workers. Drive with caution. Don’t change lanes unnecessarily.
Avoid using mobile devices such as phones while driving in work zones.

Expect delays, especially during peak travel times.
Allow ample space between you and the car in front of you.
Anticipate lane shifts and merge when directed to do so.

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Saturday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment
9/3/22 Saturday 5:15 am
Nothing has changed for today. It still looks like afternoon showers will develop. First in the higher elevations, then becoming scattered to widespread across most of the forecast area later in the afternoon and into the evening. Yesterday, there was not much happening on the radar. A small cell developed near Hesperus and moved east. I had a little rain at the house for a very short period of time and 0.05 inches fell before the sun came back out. Boring…
The more boring our weather gets, the more I look into the future. As I have been saying since May, just as difficult as it is to predict when the monsoon starts, it is equally difficult to tell when the monsoon has ended. Despite what you may have read recently, September is not our wettest month of the year. It is our 3rd or 4th wettest month of the year depending on which dataset you want to use.
Our precipitation is not reliable here. It never has been and it never will be. Ask the 1930s. Our “averages” are skewed by our anomalies. This becomes very apparent when you look at our precipitation over the last 130 years. Dry periods last longer than wet periods. People remember wet periods because they happen less frequently.
One of the fun things about September and October is that we have the best chance of a dying tropical cyclone recurving and moving the remnants across the southwest eventually dumping rain over Southwest Colorado. Because of the lack of tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific over the last few years, we have not seen that happen. This year, the Pacific has been more active than the Atlantic Basin. Despite all of the dire predictions in May, the Atlantic Basin has been very quiet. Nearly record-setting quiet, although, most indications are this quiet streak is about to end.
So as I always do when the weather gets boring this time of year, I am on the lookout for two things. The first is always cold fronts coming down from Canada. The second is tropical development in the Eastern Pacific near Mexico. Right now, I am watching a feature known as Invest 93e. It recently formed off of the Southern Mexico border west of Guatemala. It may turn out to be nothing at all. But some of the models are showing this feature fully developing and being named Kay or Lester. Which, let’s be honest,  are pretty lame names for a Pacific Cyclone…
Anyway, the models are showing this development and demise as the Cyclone recurves into Northern Baja with the remnants drifting into the southwest next weekend.  It is way too early to even consider battening down the hatches, but fun to think about. Plus it is the only cool thing to look at right now.
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Weekend Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
9/2/22 Friday 7:35 am
The best chance of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be late Saturday afternoon. The activity will pick up after 3 pm and may continue into the early evening. Other than that things look pretty quiet.
I will check back in Saturday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Thursday Update–Holiday Weekend Forecast And The NOAA Winter Forecast

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
9/1/22 Thursday 6 am
Yesterday isolated convective systems managed to develop across portions of the forecast area. A couple of them looked impressive on the radar, but I did not get a lot of reports of heavy rain actually making it to the ground. With the exception of one report of 0.40 inches, most reporting sites were showing less than 0.10 inches.
At the moment, the next best chance of more scattered showers developing appears to be on Saturday afternoon. Other than that, more of the same conditions today through the weekend with mostly isolated storms firing favoring the higher terrain.
We are getting to the time of year when the winter forecasts are issued. I do not put a lot of faith into them until we get a little closer. The one I put the least faith into is the NOAA “forecast”.
The fact is, it is not a forecast but a probability scheme built on chances of above, below, or equal chances of above, below, or equal chances of precipitation and temperatures. I know that reads confusing because it is. What is out now is not their official outlook, but rather their latest monthly long-term seasonal outlook posted on August 18th.  It says the same thing it says every season. Below average precipitation with above average temperatures.
Guess what? That is what they said about June July and August. Here were the temperatures for that period.
Summer temperatures relative to average
Summer precipitation relative to average
So do yourself a favor and don’t start worrying about winter, it is too early to worry.
I will do a couple of short model updates through the weekend to check up on the storm chances for Saturday afternoon. Enjoy the extended weekend. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Woo Hoo More Road Construction

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
8/30/22 Tuesday 7:30 pm
Nobody likes it, but it is necessary, and we will be in a period of boring weather which will facilitate the repairs.

News From:
Colorado Department of Transportation logo

 

August 30, 2022

Adair Christensen
SW Region 5 Communications Specialist
970-903-4327 | adair.christensen@state.co.us

― DURANGO BRIDGE REPAIR ALERT ―

CDOT to perform a bridge repair west of the US 160 & US 550 (Camino Del Rio) intersection
Motorists will encounter lane shifts and traffic delays next week, Sept. 6 – 9

DURANGO ― The Colorado Department of Transportation will complete a permanent bridge repair on the US Highway 160 bridge over the Animas River, located on the south side of the DoubleTree Hotel and just west of the US 160 and US 550 intersection in Durango. The bridge work will take place, Tuesday, Sept. 6 through Friday, Sept. 9 from 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.

 

Last month, CDOT completed a temporary repair of the bridge by installing steel road plates over the expansion joint. Crews will now cut a new 1-inch groove into the concrete surface and add a urethane fill on top of the expansion joint. This permanent repair will increase the life of the bridge structure and improve the road surface by allowing the concrete surface to naturally expand and contract. Additionally, potholes and crevices on the bridge will be patched.

Drivers are urged to reduce their speeds while approaching the bridge. The temporary steel plates create bumps on the east end of the bridge. Once the expansion joint work is complete at this location, the steel plates and the bumps will be removed.

Traffic Impacts

Motorists will encounter both westbound and eastbound lane shifts and crews will attempt to keep traffic moving through the work zone. However, significant delays can be expected at the US 160 and US 550 intersection due to congestion caused by the limited lanes available. Travelers should allow themselves extra time. Motorists as well as pedestrians, are asked to seek an alternate route, if possible. Motorists are urged to watch for workers and their equipment, slow down and drive with extreme caution.

Know Before You Go
Travelers are urged to “know before you go.” Gather information about weather forecasts and anticipated travel impacts and current road conditions prior to hitting the road. CDOT resources include:

Road conditions and travel information: COtrip.org
Download the COtrip Planner app: bit.ly/COtripapp
Sign up for project or travel alerts: bit.ly/COnewsalerts
See scheduled construction lane closures: bit.ly/laneclosures
Connect with @ColoradoDOT on social media: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.
Remember: Slow For The Cone Zone
The following tips are to help you stay safe while traveling through maintenance and construction work zones.

Do not speed in work zones. Obey the posted speed limits.
Stay Alert! Expect the unexpected.
Watch for workers. Drive with caution.
Don’t change lanes unnecessarily.
Avoid using mobile devices such as phones while driving in work zones.
Turn on headlights so that workers and other drivers can see you.
Be especially alert at night while driving in work zones.
Expect delays, especially during peak travel times.
Allow ample space between you and the car in front of you.
Anticipate lane shifts and merge when directed to do so.
Be patient!

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Tuesday Update–An Early Peek At the Weekend And Beyond

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
8/30/22 Tuesday 7:45 am
In the short term, I do not expect to change my stance that isolated convective storms are possible any afternoon, favoring the higher elevation areas. Overall, the Euro and GFS agree that the next 7 days will be mainly dry in most other areas.
They diverge around Sunday when the GFS starts to introduce more scattered showers that reoccur next week. At this point, I am more comfortable with the drier Euro solution.
High pressure will continue to dominate the area for the foreseeable future. As has been the case the last three months, the first half of the coming month will be drier than the last half.
The extended Euro came out last night and it shows something we have not seen in several months, below-average precipitation and slightly above normal temperatures.  I am not going to go too deeply into it yet. It was a dramatic reversal and sometimes models overreact when it comes to pattern changes that coincide with seasonal changes (meteorological fall begins Thursday, September 1st).
Here is the snow forecast through Thursday, October 13th
It is a little too early to tune up the snowblower but it is nice to see some “blue” on the map.
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Monday Afternoon Road Maintenance Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

8/29/22 Monday 5:30 pm

News From:
Colorado Department of Transportation logo

 

Aug. 29, 2022

Lisa Schwantes
SW Colorado Regional Communications Manager
970-749-2015 | lisa.schwantes@state.co.us
CORRECTED INFORMATION BELOW

—MAINTENANCE ALERTS for LA PLATA COUNTY —
Maintenance work set for several highway locations this week

US 160 near Home Depot in south Durango: Paving operations
Today and Tues., Aug 29 & 30

CDOT crews continue to pave US 160 in front of Home Depot, from River Road to Dominguez Drive, in south Durango. Paving of the westbound lanes has been completed, but recent rains have hampered progress of the eastbound lanes. Weather permitting, crews should complete the work this week, by Tues. Aug. 30.

 

Hwy. 3 and Larry Valdez Way in south Durango: Paving operations
Wed. & Thurs., Aug. 31 & Sept. 1

CDOT crews will pave the roadway at the intersection of Hwy. 3 and Larry Valdez Way in south Durango. Over two days, Aug. 31 and Sept.1, motorists will encounter lane shifts and no left turns will be permitted. Motorists may encounter intermittent stops to allow crews to work within the intersection. Travelers may consider avoiding this intersection and using an alternate route.

 

US 550 and Trimble Lane, north of Durango: Signal repair work
Wed., Aug 31

CDOT crews will install a new electrical cabinet for the light signal at the intersection of US 550 and Trimble Lane. This intersection is located approximately five miles north of Durango in the Animas Valley. A portable light signal will provide traffic control through the intersection and speed will be reduced to 40 MPH while work is being done. The one-day cabinet replacement operation is set to take place on Aug. 31, from 8:30 a.m. to 3 p.m.

 

Traffic Impacts for All Work Sites

At all locations work will take place, weather permitting. Most work will take place from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., unless otherwise indicated above. Drivers may encounter delays, periodic full stops, and lane closures. Motorists should abide to speed reductions and use extreme caution when approaching and driving through the work zone. Motorists are urged to be aware of flagging personnel, work crews, and heavy equipment.

Lisa Schwantes
SW Colorado Regional Communications Manager
970-749-2015 | lisa.schwantes@state.co.us
—TRAFFIC ADVISORY—
San Luis Valley travelers will encounter heavy traffic and lowered speed limit on US 285 near Villa Grove Special event held over the Labor Day weekend will cause possible traffic congestion

SAGUACHE COUNTY — The Colorado Department of Transportation announces a temporary speed reduction on US Highway 285 in the vicinity of Villa Grove over the Labor Day weekend. The small community of Villa Grove in the San Luis Valley is the site of a music festival that is expected to increase traffic and cause possible highway congestion.

Traffic Impacts

Beginning on Thurs., Sept. 1 through Monday, Sept. 5 motorists traveling northbound and southbound on US 285 near Villa Grove will encounter a speed reduction. The speed limit will be reduced to 40 MPH. Travelers should use extreme caution when driving the two-mile stretch of highway (mile points 103 -105) through the community. Motorists will encounter flagging personnel, at two separate access points on the highway, directing traffic to and from the special event which is taking place on the west side of the highway.

Travelers are advised that many special events may be taking place during the holiday weekend across Colorado that could impact traffic. CDOT resources include:

Travel webpage: COtrip.org

Mobile app: COtrip Planner

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Monday Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
8/29/22 Monday 8:15 am
Most of the forecast area has been complying with the drier solutions the models have been suggesting. However, there have been significant exceptions.  Highly isolated Meso-Scale Convective Storms developed around the Hermosa area in the last couple of afternoons. They delivered heavy rain and hail as they sat nearly motionless over the area. Some of those locations have added 2 to 3 inches of rain to their August totals.
As I have said before these convective features are unforecastable with even our highest resolution models. The best guidance I can give is they are possible any afternoon this time of year. The best chances for these storms to develop will be over the areas that have gotten heavy rain recently. The storm development relies on residual moisture and saturated soils to fuel the convection.
Our lack of good radar coverage makes it impossible to determine when the precipitation is hitting the ground. I appreciate all of the reports over the last couple of days from everyone.
Tomorrow I will be covering the latest long-term Euro run due out tonight. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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