Same Story Different Month

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment
 8/8/22 Monday 9:15 am
Although it is not reflected on the models, today looks like a better setup for scattered showers when I look at the surface map. Yesterday, the showers were isolated but were impressive. The biggest storm was in La Plata County west of Durango. It developed west of the Twin Buttes subdivision. It was a very intense storm. Lightning struck 3 nautical miles from my house, the ensuing thunder was so powerful it set off car alarms all over my neighborhood. Over 1.50 inches of rain fell on Twin Buttes. It was a slow mover and nearly rained out there. A few leftovers made it into Durango and points east where 0.30 to .070 inches fell. Not a single drop fell at my house.
CAPE values will peak between 2 pm and 5 pm this afternoon. That is when there will be the most energy for thunderstorm development. Any storms that do develop will be slow movers again today. They will be capable of producing flash flooding conditions. As always, we don’t know where they are going to set up, if at all.
I went back and looked at the last couple of months. Each month there has been a considerable lull in the monsoonal flow. Here are some graphs from the weather station in my neighborhood.
Notice the large lulls in June and July. There is a lot of August left, so don’t worry that the monsoon is over.
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Sunday Morning Update

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8/7/22 Sunday 7:15 am
This afternoon, there is a slightly better chance of isolated to scattered showers. The favored areas will be the higher terrain in the northern portions of the forecast area, as well as eastern portions of the forecast area, namely Archuleta County.
Monday’s storm chances look slightly better than today. I will talk more about that Monday morning.
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Low Confidence Forecast

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
8/5/22 Friday 7:45 am
Just a couple of days ago it still looked like we would get the long touted surge of deep monsoonal moisture today, Saturday, and Sunday. That no longer appears to be the case, at least for today and tomorrow. Does that mean it will be dry? No guarantees. Sunday looks like it will be the most active day of the three. Does that mean it is going to rain on Sunday? No guarantees.  Things should start to dry out a bit today. Depending on what time the sun decides to come out, we may see some isolated storms fire again this afternoon. Most of the action yesterday was limited to the higher terrain, I expect that to be the case again today. However, it seems like every day an unexpected storm fires up somewhere it is not supposed to. That was the case late afternoon and early evening, around and just outside of Cortez. 0.50 inches to over 1.00 inches fell in a very short period of time.
You may sense my frustrations. I take pride in trying to provide some guidance to my followers. This season I have spent more time on monsoon-weather forecasting than I ever have in the past and it has been a humbling experience at best. I have learned a lot though. I am ready for winter! Give me a deep SoCal low-pressure system drifting across the southwest getting ready to integrate with a cold front from the north. That’s what I am looking for. It will be here soon enough. Check out the 46-day snow map ending September 18th.
I know it is a minuscule amount, but I will be posting it as it updates every week.
Speaking of snow, I have been getting a lot of questions about winter. People want to know if the wet summer will carry over to winter. I would also like to know the answer to that question. The truth is it is too early to tell. The summer engine and winter engine use different fuels. They are mostly unrelated. I usually start digging into winter by mid to late September.
My next update will be on Saturday. I am sure everything will change by then…Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Models In Flux

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8/4/22 Thursday 3:15 pm
I am not going to delve too deeply into the weekend because things seem to be evolving into a drier forecast. This could be good news for a few people who have reached out to me about their weekend wedding forecasts.
The Euro is leading this charge. Because the Euro carries so much weight meteorologically forecasters are sitting up and listening–including me. The GFS and the German model are still showing a wet weekend. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, let’s see what tomorrow brings.
One thing that gives me caution is the very active storms now firing over the higher terrain to the north, and the pop-up isolated local storms that fired yesterday afternoon. On storm popped up over Lakewood Meadows (Electra Lake area) and dropped over 1.50 inches of rain in a very short period of time. Rainfall rates approached 5.0 inches an hour at one point.
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Wednesday Afternoon Update

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8/3/22 Wednesday 1:30 pm
Storms have started to fire this afternoon. The most productive storm is currently in the higher terrain north of Vallecito. Rain has spread down to lake level and over half an inch has already fallen this afternoon on the north side of the lake. Lemon is also getting in on the action, but there are no sensors for me to determine how much rain has fallen. Dewpoints have been back on the rise throughout the day all across the forecast area, but clouds may limit convection.
A deeper push of moisture is expected late Thursday and Friday. However, the models are not as overly enthusiastic as they were with rainfall totals for the weekend. That being said, the short-term models have not handled these monsoonal surges well all season. My money is still with the extended models which have trended towards an anomalously wet August.
Another 24 hours from now the models should have a better handle on the weekend weather.
My next update will be out Thursday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Tuesday Update-Short Mid And Long Term Outlook

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8/2/22 Tuesday 6 am
Yesterday a few thunderstorms developed throughout the forecast area. One was severe, it was located east northeast of Durango, flash flood watches were issued. The highest total I have seen so far was 0.75 inches. It would not surprise me to see a higher total surface as the day wears on.
Today, “drier” air is supposed to work its way north into the forecast area. For what it’s worth, PWATs (precipitable water values) will remain above 100% of the climatological average. There is still residual moisture around and the soil is still saturated. If we do see more sun and daytime heating we will have more of a possibility of convection developing. CAPE values are forecasted to be very high this afternoon, I can’t promise an uneventful completely dry day. PWAT is already forecasted to be higher tomorrow before rising significantly on Thursday. Late Thursday through the weekend still looks wet.
Speaking of wet, the Euro extend data is out, as I expected it shows a very wet August. Here are total precipitation forecasts for August.
Here is the positive precipitation anomaly through August
Here are the totals through September 15th.
Here is the positive anomaly through September 15th.
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Monday Afternoon Update

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8/1/22 Monday 1 pm
Dewpoints have been on the rise all morning. Dewpoint temperatures are in the mid-50s to 60 throughout the entire forecast area. Mid-50s at the higher elevation locations are very impressive! This should indicate storm development across the forecast area over the next couple/few hours.
Tomorrow drier air is set to move into the forecast area. If we get widespread showers late today/tonight the residual moisture could lead to isolated showers Tuesday afternoon. At the moment it looks like that will be confined to the higher terrain, we will see. Wednesday afternoon the shower coverage may tick up a bit more than Tuesday.
Thursday will be a transitional day as deeper moisture arrives throughout the day. This should lead to more widespread late day, evening, and overnight showers. This will continue Friday and extend through the weekend.
Tomorrow I will be covering the extended outlook through August and into September. The model data will be out tonight but I can already tell you that based on other parameters I am tracking, I expect to see significantly positive precipitation anomalies!
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Sunday Update And A Quick Look At The Week Ahead

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment
7/31/22 Sunday 7:30 am
Late-day showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet today. The models struggle with these mesoscale features. Last night we saw them develop mostly over the southern portions of the forecast. Amounts from over a half inch to 2 inches accumulated over the last 24 hours. Most of that fell between 8 pm and midnight last night.
The atmosphere is once again nearly saturated with precipitable water values ranging from 150-180% of the climatological average for this date. High-resolution short-term models show plenty of CAPE available for storm development this afternoon.
On Monday another round of convection will be possible but the atmosphere may be slightly drier than today. It looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will have the best chance of drying out a bit, although you know the drill when it comes to afternoon thunderstorms this time of year. The best chances for storms on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the higher terrain.
All of the models are showing another deep surge of monsoonal moisture for Thursday and Friday. This far out they are in disagreement on the track of that moisture.
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Saturday Afternoon Update

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7/30/22 Saturday 2 pm
Today started pretty similar to yesterday. The big question is will the light isolated showers from this morning grow into something larger this afternoon? The models did not handle that situation well yesterday.
 The clouds started to break up and let the sunshine through today around 1 pm. The dewpoints are still high, so if the sun sticks around for a little while it may be all we need for something to really pop. Fingers crossed. If that does happen, the possibility of heavy rain exists this afternoon into the evening because any storms that develop will be slow movers.
Tomorrow looks like conditions will once again be in place for afternoon showers. I will try to get an early update out tomorrow morning.
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OOOPS Friday Afternoon Update Including the Telluride 100

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment
Saturday 6:15 am
I apologize, I never hit the “Publish” button when I finished this yesterday. Most of what the models were predicting yesterday did not come to fruition despite the deep moisture in place. My new update will be out this afternoon
7/29/22 Friday 1:30 pm
Stratiform showers (gentle rain) developed almost immediately after I posted my morning update. They formed mostly over the southern portions of the forecast area. They are slowly moving into the southern portions of Archuleta County as of 12 pm.
Dewpoints are very high. Readings of 60 plus are out there with most areas in the mid to high 50s. This is very high for us. Convection has begun firing in NE Arizona. There is nothing to stop that from happening here, but clouds tend to delay the onset of storms. Storms this afternoon and evening are a good bet but it will be difficult to pinpoint where this will happen.
When it comes to convection, areas with saturated soils tend to be favored. More than likely the areas that were favored yesterday, will be the areas where we see the biggest storms set up today. That being said, keep an umbrella handy because the entire forecast area is ripe for storms to fire this afternoon and evening.
After I posted I received several 1 to 3-inch reports coming in for the 24-hour period. Thanks for those and keep them coming.
Telluride 100

As I mentioned a few times this week it appears late morning to afternoon showers are possible for the event. I am going to put the Euro in motion hourly from 6 am to 6 pm. I don’t have a way to zoom in on the GIF. It is difficult to see so here is a static map that you can reference first so the non-map readers know where to look. This is SW Colorado. Circled in red is the approximate area that the course is in.

Each frame is 1 hour. Most models are only showing 0.25 to 0.50 inches across the course over the 12-hour period. The CAPE values do not become highly elevated until 3 pm. So assuming the models are correct, all of this is good motivation to finish early!

My next update will be on Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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